"$d_webRawe""economics, markets/technical analysis - patterns etc.txt" www.BillHowell.ca 19Aug2020 initial, based on previous searches Awesome reference : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/112601.asp +-----+ 26Jan2021 Fibonnaci numbers, ratios (see 26Jan2021 below for [derivations, examples]) So far primary : 0.146 0.236 0.382 0.618 1.0 1.618 2.618 4.235 missing : 0.50 1.41 2.0 2.24 3.14 3.618 (how do I get these?) normal ratios in stocks : see below 28Jan2022 normal TradingView Fib ratios, for text box Create trading levels : level0_new := latest lower multiply-confirmed Technical Support level + sometimes also previous-to-latest-series uppper Tech resistance level level1.0_new := latest uppper Tech resistance level OR ??? fibLevels := level0_new + ((level1.0_new - level0_new) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) Detailed explanations at end of file : +-----+ MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence EMA Exponential Moving Average BB Bollinger Bands 24************************24 08********08 #] 28Jan2022 normal TradingView Fib ratios, for text box : +-----+ Fib ratios | 0.00 | | | | | | 0.24 | | | | 0.38 | | | | 0.50 | | | | 0.62 | | | | 0.77 | | | | 1.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.62 | +-----+ Fib ratios | 1.62 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.00 | | | | 0.62 | | | | 0.77 | | | | 0.50 | | | | 0.38 | | | | 0.24 | | | | | | 0.00 | +-----+ Fib ratios +-----+ Fib ratios | 0.00 | | | | 0.24 | | 0.38 | | 0.50 | | 0.62 | | 0.77 | | 1.00 | | | | | | | | 1.62 | 08********08 #] 20Jan2022 Cypher Patterns Trading Strategy https://tradingstrategyguides.com/best-cypher-patterns-trading-strategy/ Cypher Patterns Trading Strategy – How to Draw Cypher Pattern by TradingStrategyGuides | Last updated Oct 29, 2020 | All Strategies, Chart Pattern Strategies | 9 comments >> looks like BS to me, points floating arbitrarily in space un-attach! 08********08 25Jan2021 combine 2 inconsistent copies of this file 'technical analysis - patterns etc.txt' diff --width=85 "$d_webRawe""economics, markets/technical analysis - patterns etc.txt" "$d_webRawe""economics, markets/technical analysis - patterns etc2.txt" --suppress-common-lines 08********08 25Jan2021 Andy Pancholi Market timing reports 210127 Andy Pancholi Market timing report.pdf 210127 Andy Pancholi Year ahead 2021 report.pdf 08********08 26Jan2021 Fibonnaci numbers https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XdbpIwWn-Harmonic-Patterns-With-Advanced-Explanations-Check-It-Out/?&utm_source=Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TradingView+Weekly+86+%28EN%29 The Fibonacci sequence of numbers, starting with zero and one, is created by adding the previous two numbers: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. qnial> fib := reverse 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 This sequence can then be broken down into ratios which some believe provide clues as to where a given financial market will move to. The Gartley , bat, and crab are among the most popular harmonic patterns available to technical traders. Harmonic trading combines patterns and math into a trading method that is precise and based on the premise that patterns repeat themselves. At the root of the methodology is the primary ratio, or some derivative of it (0.618 or 1.618). Complementing ratios include: 0.382, 0.50, 1.41, 2.0, 2.24, 2.618, 3.14 and 3.618. qnial> fib := 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 (ignore zero start) qnial> (rest fib) / (front fib) 1. 2. 1.5 1.66667 1.6 1.625 1.61538 1.61905 1.61765 1.61818 1.61798 qnial> (rest rest fib) / (front front fib) 2. 3. 2.5 2.66667 2.6 2.625 2.61538 2.61905 2.61765 2.61818 qnial> (rest rest rest fib) / (front front front fib) 3. 5. 4. 4.33333 4.2 4.25 4.23077 4.2381 4.23529 qnial> (front front front fib) / (rest rest rest fib) 0.333333 0.2 0.25 0.230769 0.238095 0.235294 0.236364 0.235955 0.236111 qnial> (front front front front fib) / (rest rest rest rest fib) 0.2 0.125 0.153846 0.142857 0.147059 0.145455 0.146067 0.145833 qnial> (front fib) / (rest fib) 1. 0.5 0.666667 0.6 0.625 0.615385 0.619048 0.617647 0.618182 0.617978 0.618056 qnial> (front front fib) / (rest rest fib) 0.5 0.333333 0.4 0.375 0.384615 0.380952 0.382353 0.381818 0.382022 0.381944 So far primary : 0.145833 0.236111 0.381944 0.618056 1.0 1.61798 2.61818 4.23529 qnial> fibRatios := 0.236 0.382 0.50 0.618 1.0 1.618 2.000 2.24 3.14 2.618 3.618 0.236 0.382 0.5 0.618 1. 1.618 2. 2.24 3.14 2.618 3.618 qnial> SPlevels := 3668 3695 3712 3726 3729.96 3759.52 3784.43 3856.39 3668 3695 3712 3726 3729.96 3759.52 3784.43 3856.39 qnial> dif := rest SPlevels - (front SPlevels) 27 17 14 3.96 29.56 24.91 71.96 qnial> dif := SPlevels - 3668 0 27 44 58 61.96 91.52 116.43 188.39 qnial> (front dif) / (rest dif) 0. 0.613636 0.758621 0.936088 0.67701 0.786052 0.618026 qnial> dif := 3784.43 - 3668 116.43 qnial> 3668 * (1 + (0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 4533.65 5061.84 5502. 5934.82 6551.05 7336 9602.82 qnial> 3668 + (dif * (0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3695.48 3712.24 3726.22 3739.95 3759.51 3784.43 3856.38 Create trading levels, but QuantGuy only goes to 1.618 : qnial> SPlevels := 3668 3695 3712 3726 3729.96 3759.52 3784.43 3856.39 3668 3695 3712 3726 3729.96 3759.52 3784.43 3856.39 levelx_new := level0_new + ((level1.0_new - level0_new) * fibx) QuantGuy old series qnial> 3668 + ((3784.43 - 3668) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3668 3695.48 3712.24 3726.22 3739.95 3759.51 3784.43 3856.38 >> OK - gives QuantGuy's old Fib levels QuantGuy current series qnial> 3758.33 + ((3825.83 - 3758.33) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3758.33 3774.26 3783.98 3792.08 3800.05 3811.38 3825.83 3867.55 >> OK - gives QuantGuy's current Fib levels 3867.55 = 3758.33 + ((3825.83 - 3758.33)*1.618) = 3867.55 >> OK confirms QuantGuy - possible next series if breaks up, need to predict 1.0 level, assuming : 3825.83 as zero (ignore downspike) 3811.39 as zero including only part of downspike levelx_new := level0_new + ((level1.0_new - level0_new) * fibx) level1.0_new := 3825.83 + ((level1.0_new - 3825.83)*1) nuts -> 0 = 0 indeterminate must assume upper resistance as level1.0_new? qnial> 3811.39 + ((3867.55 - 3811.39) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3811.39 3824.64 3832.73 3839.47 3846.1 3855.53 3867.55 3902.26 >> Nope, QuantGuy says 3887.06 as next target (presumably level1.0) qnial> 3825.83 + ((3867.55 - 3825.83) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3825.83 3835.68 3841.68 3846.69 3851.61 3858.62 3867.55 3893.33 >> Nope again qnial> 3835.83 + ((3867.55 - 3835.83) * (0 0.236 0.38 0.5 0.618 0.786 1 1.618)) 3835.83 3843.32 3847.88 3851.69 3855.43 3860.76 3867.55 3887.15 08********08 14Dec2020 Awesome statistic commentary!! https://www.tradingview.com/script/LiQbTD6e-Moments-Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis-pig/?&utm_source=Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TradingView+Weekly+86+%28EN%29 Moments (Mean,Variance,Skewness,Kurtosis) [pig] balipour, Dec 9 Using Moments For Trend and Mean Reversion Trading: Use the autocorrelation testing indicators to confirm trend or mean reversion. Then use log return, mean, and stdev bands to act accordingly. Trend trading using mean and variance. When variance/stdev is high, take a trade based on the mean's direction. Trend trading using skewness and kurtosis . When kurtosis is significantly positive, it indicates a large risk. But for trend trading strategies, they profit from extreme moves. Take a trade based on the direction of skewness if the kurtosis and skewness are both significant. Profit from extreme values in the direction of skewness. Mean reversion strategies using kurtosis . When kurtosis is low, the risk of trading mean reversion is lower. Mean reversion strategies using skewness. A positive skewness doesn't always mean bullish and a negative skewness doesn't always mean bearish . It only shows the shape of the distribution in the past. Skewness may sometimes even have a negative correlation with price. There are studies that show buying commodities with the most negative skewness and shorting commodities with the largest positive skewness can be profitable. And it could be applied not only in commodities . This is probably due to people's preference for longing positively-skewed securities. They tend to speculate a large profit from low probabilities. They will be overpricing the large positively-skewed securities and when the market underperforms, their expectation is that it will drop. >> See Pinescript code : /media/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/PineScript/balipour, pig - moments [mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis].pineScript Andye81 Dec 10 Another amazing indicator to add to the arsenal of world class indicators from bapigindicators.com. These two gentlemen, are maths geniuses and are making tools for the benefit of man ( and lady) kind. Amazing explanation and write up. Keep up the amazing work. 08********08 23Nov2020 Quantguy https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/WiD7yXIc-Breakout-Near-for-Stocks/ Breakout Near for Stocks? Long S&P 500 Index (FX:SPX500) 3649.04 −14.30 −0.39% quantguy Nov 23 Stocks continue to range, holding the very narrow range 3547 to 3584. If they break to the upside they will face resistance at the Fibonacci extension level 3632, which provided resistance last week. Highs at 3677 will also be difficult to break. The S&P still looks like it is forming a bull wedge pattern. We are currently sitting at support from the lower bound. If our buy-side conviction fails, we could see a breakdown to as low as 3484, but we need to slice through several levels first. Bill_Howell Nov 23 Is a bull wedge (rising converging upper-lower trends, declining volume) considered bullish, bearish, or sometimes just an indicator of potential change in (direction, slope)? Here, the upper trend is horizontal, but I don't see comments on technical analysis websites for that special condition. Your comments do show the uncertainty of the potential change in trend (breakout). quantguy Nov 23 @Bill_Howell, A bull wedge (aka 'ascending wedge') is characterized by a horizontal upper bound and a lower bound of a trendline with positive slope. If you have increasing volume while the volatility consolidates you can expect a breakout. If the volume recedes, it could breakdown or keep ranging. Bill_Howell Nov 23 @quantguy, Thanks, I appreciate the clarification, which I couldn't easily find elsewhere. ******** 19Aug2020 quantguy Nov 23 @Bill_Howell, A bull wedge (aka 'ascending wedge') is characterized by a horizontal upper bound and a lower bound of a trendline with positive slope. If you have increasing volume while the volatility consolidates you can expect a breakout. If the volume recedes, it could breakdown or keep ranging. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp Wedge By Gordon Scott, CMT Reviewed By Somer Anderson Updated Jul 29, 2020 What Is a Wedge? A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts. Key Takaways Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals Understanding the Wedge Pattern A wedge pattern can signal either bullish or bearish price reversals. In either case, this pattern holds three common characteristics: first, the converging trend lines; second, a pattern of declining volume as the price progresses through the pattern; third, a breakout from one of the trend lines. The two forms of the wedge pattern are a rising wedge (which signals a bearish reversal) or a falling wedge (which signals a bullish reversal). https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/112601.asp Introduction to Technical Analysis Price Patterns By Adam Hayes, Updated May 7, 2020 If price continues on its trend, the price pattern is known as a continuation pattern. Common continuation patterns include: Pennants, constructed using two converging trendlines Flags, drawn with two parallel trendlines Wedges, constructed with two converging trendlines, where both are angled either up or down Pennants Pennants are drawn with two trendlines that eventually converge. A key characteristic of pennants is that the trendlines move in two directions—that is, one will be a down trendline and the other an up trendline. Figure 1 shows an example of a pennant. Often, volume will decrease during the formation of the pennant, followed by an increase when price eventually breaks out. Flags (parallel trend lines) Flags are constructed using two parallel trendlines that can slope up, down or sideways (horizontal). In general, a flag that has an upward slope appears as a pause in a down trending market; a flag with a downward bias shows a break during an up trending market. Typically, the formation of the flag is accompanied by a period of declining volume, which recovers as price breaks out of the flag formation. Wedges Wedges are similar to pennants in that they are drawn using two converging trendlines; however, a wedge is characterized by the fact that both trendlines are moving in the same direction, either up or down. A wedge that is angled down represents a pause during a uptrend; a wedge that is angled up shows a temporary interruption during a falling market. As with pennants and flags, volume typically tapers off during the formation of the pattern, only to increase once price breaks above or below the wedge pattern. Triangles (Howell - is base parallel to x-axis?) Triangles are among the most popular chart patterns used in technical analysis since they occur frequently compared to other patterns. The three most common types of triangles are symmetrical triangles, ascending triangles, and descending triangles. These chart patterns can last anywhere from a couple weeks to several months. Symmetrical triangles occur when two trend lines converge toward each other and signal only that a breakout is likely to occur—not the direction. Ascending triangles are characterized by a flat upper trend line and a rising lower trend line and suggest a breakout higher is likely, while descending triangles have a flat lower trend line and a descending upper trend line that suggests a breakdown is likely to occur. The magnitude of the breakouts or breakdowns is typically the same as the height of the left vertical side of the triangle, as shown in the figure below. Cup and Handles The cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern where an upward trend has paused, but will continue when the pattern is confirmed. The "cup" portion of the pattern should be a "U" shape that resembles the rounding of a bowl rather than a "V" shape with equal highs on both sides of the cup. The "handle" forms on the right side of the cup in the form of a short pullback that resembles a flag or pennant chart pattern. Once the handle is complete, the stock may breakout to new highs and resume its trend higher. A cup and handle is depicted in the figure below. Head and Shoulders Head and shoulders patterns can appear at market tops or bottoms as a series of three pushes: an initial peak or trough, followed by a second and larger one and then a third push that mimics the first. An uptrend that is interrupted by a head and shoulders top pattern may experience a trend reversal, resulting in a downtrend. Conversely, a downtrend that results in a head and shoulders bottom (or an inverse head and shoulders) will likely experience a trend reversal to the upside. Horizontal or slightly sloped trendlines can be drawn connecting the peaks and troughs that appear between the head and shoulders, as shown in the figure below. Volume may decline as the pattern develops and spring back once price breaks above (in the case of a head and shoulders bottom) or below (in the case of a head and shoulders top) the trendline. 08********08 Definitions Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/macd/ The MACD is an extremely popular indicator used in technical analysis. It can be used to identify aspects of a security's overall trend. Most notably these aspects are momentum, as well as trend direction and duration. What makes the MACD so informative is that it is actually the combination of two different types of indicators. First, the MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, it takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum. # enddoc