Index of /economics, markets/Cool stuff

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[TXT]0_Cool stuff notes.link.txt2023-07-31 08:34 41  
[TXT]0_Cool stuff other.link.txt2023-07-31 08:40 123  
[IMG]China Gavekal: Five big rallies since 2005, three of them stimulus-fueled.png2024-10-05 11:44 222K 
[IMG]China Vecchio: 20yr govt bond yield 2020-2024, 240919.png2024-09-19 10:15 27K 
[IMG]China Vecchio: direct investments by foreigners 2019-2024, 240919.png2024-09-19 10:17 18K 
[IMG]FX $CDN-$US exchange rate vs commodity prices 2003-2013, 141123.jpg2024-07-28 22:49 44K 
[IMG]FX Adinolfi, Morgan Stanley: U.S. dollar regime shift could threaten stocks.png2024-07-28 22:49 100K 
[IMG]FX CADUSD vs USOIL (WTI) [Feb-Jul2024, 1861-2024].png2024-07-28 22:49 241K 
[IMG]FX Goldstein: Share of USD in IMF FX reserves 1999-2024, 03Oct2024.png2024-10-05 11:56 135K 
[IMG]FX Howell: US down since Apr2022.png2024-07-28 22:49 230K 
[IMG]FX Joseph Adinolfi: 5 charts show how U.S. currency still rules the world economy (FX trading shown) 23Mar2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 83K 
[IMG]Fed Citi Corp: Federal Reserve balance sheet grows again, 230317.png2023-03-17 10:31 211K 
[IMG]Fed Dent - SP500 global vs QE [Fed, ECB, BOJ] 2008-2020, 201124.jpeg2020-11-26 13:33 58K 
[IMG]GDP Deutsch Bank, Bloomberg Finance US Treasury yields are rising in spite, not because, of global growth, 230929.jpeg2023-09-29 14:47 33K 
[IMG]GDP Deutsch Bank, Haver Analytics With Fed QT continuing, it could be difficult to get supply-demand technicals in balance, 230929.jpeg2023-09-29 14:51 55K 
[IMG]GDP UBS: Economic expansions have grown longer.png2023-07-21 08:47 87K 
[IMG]PE Dent: US CAPE Ratio Most Overvalued vs. Any Stock Market in the World.png2023-12-02 10:15 46K 
[IMG]PE Hulbert: Shiller CAPE is best PE ratio 231023.png2023-10-25 21:35 121K 
[IMG]Treas UBS Group: Fiscal contraction stopped last summer, 230721.png2023-07-21 08:14 102K 
[IMG]bond UBS Group: High-yield bond issuance market has re-opened,230721.png2023-07-21 08:25 112K 
[   ]business Florida, Hathaway 05Oct2018 Rise of the global startup city.pdf2018-10-11 10:08 20M 
[IMG]com $CDN vs Commodities 1996-2008, 141123.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 25K 
[IMG]com CdnGrainComm: Global export & destination, 190815.png2019-08-16 06:49 36K 
[IMG]com CdnGrainCommission: Canada Farm exports, 190815.png2019-08-16 10:13 36K 
[IMG]com Prechter 90 years commodities log index 210907.png2021-09-07 18:07 129K 
[IMG]com Prechter 270 years commodities linear index 210907.png2021-09-07 18:06 131K 
[IMG]com Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p539 Babylon crop prices.jpg2019-03-11 18:00 837K 
[IMG]com Uranium Energy Corp - global cost curve, 210908.png2021-09-08 13:13 156K 
[IMG]crash Adinolfi, Piper Sandler: what history tells us about 10%+ stock-market selloffs 26Mar2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 270K 
[IMG]crash Dent S&P500 top and crash scenario likely into late 2023 - 5-wave pattern, 220601.png2022-06-06 17:07 44K 
[IMG]crash Dent velocity of money crashes since stock and real estate bubbles began, 220921.png2022-09-21 08:51 36K 
[IMG]crash Howell see only Fed deleverage.png2024-07-28 22:49 258K 
[IMG]crash John Hussman: Four Stock Indicators Flash Crash as in 2000, 2007, 1972. More to Come.png2023-12-02 10:20 733K 
[IMG]crash Puetz - financial crashes since 1310 & 88 year Gleissberg cycle, 190223.png2019-02-24 10:55 631K 
[IMG]crash Puetz: stock market crashes [03Sep1929 DJIA, 27Jan1980 Gold, 24Aug1987 DJIA, 27Dec1989 Japan Nikkei, 07Sep2021], 211010.png2021-10-10 20:58 305K 
[IMG]crash Schillers index, 25 stocks outperform SP500 by >=200pct 22Jul2024 Hulbert.png2024-07-28 22:49 128K 
[IMG]crash Schillers index, [Shiller, Goetzmann, Kim] paper beliefs contrary to 24m performance 22Jul2024 Hulbert.png2024-07-28 22:49 91K 
[IMG]cycle Akhil Patel: roadmap to the 18.6 year cycle.png2023-12-27 18:25 52K 
[IMG]cycle Dent: 500-year mega innovation cycle, 180822.jpg2018-08-22 11:38 2.3M 
[IMG]cycle Dent: Most stkIdx tops explained by [tech-innov 45y, generation 39y, decenniel 10y] cycles.png2023-11-01 12:32 34K 
[IMG]debt Dent: Total debt vs GDP US 1870-2012, 180822.jpg2018-08-22 11:32 2.0M 
[IMG]debt Dent: Total debt vs GDP Western nations 2013, 180822.jpg2018-08-22 11:32 2.4M 
[IMG]debt Dent: US household debt not as high as other countries, 230731.png2023-07-31 08:25 60K 
[IMG]debt Dent Total debt vs GDP US 1870-2012, 180824.jpg2018-08-24 11:30 2.0M 
[IMG]debt Dent Total debt vs GDP Western nations 2013, 180824.jpg2018-08-24 11:30 2.4M 
[IMG]debt Dent Zombie companies cant pay debt service - tripled to 24% since 2017, 220601.png2022-06-06 16:41 126K 
[IMG]debt Fitch: Serious delinquency of non-agency RMBS loans, 1802dd.png2019-03-16 13:07 354K 
[IMG]debt Household debt-to-income Canada vs US 1990-2013.png2014-11-23 21:28 25K 
[IMG]debt Household leverage US vs Canada.PNG2014-11-23 21:28 8.7K 
[IMG]debt Puetz: ratio of personal non-financial debt to disposable income, 190526.jpg2019-05-26 10:27 32K 
[IMG]debt UBS Group: Household debt loads appear manageable, 230721.png2023-07-21 08:24 117K 
[IMG]debt vs income Canada-US 1990-2012.png2014-11-23 21:28 25K 
[IMG]div Dent: SP500 present value of dividends, foreshadows major crash.png2023-11-01 13:14 98K 
[IMG]earn Deutsche Bank via MktWatch SP500 Q3 2022 consensus earnings, 221019.png2022-10-19 12:35 45K 
[IMG]earn Goldman Sachs: SP500 EPS bottom-up consensus estimates, 230409.jpeg2023-04-09 21:27 72K 
[IMG]earn Goldstein, Darda: earnings estimates good, except mkt turns ~30pct too high 11Sep2024.png2024-09-13 12:43 148K 
[IMG]earn MktWatch, Morgan Stanley- 1 year leading US earnings model, 220905.jpeg2022-09-05 15:49 65K 
[IMG]earn Morgan Stanley, MktWatch - 1 year leading US earnings model, 220905.jpeg2022-09-05 15:49 65K 
[IMG]electn Hulbert: stkmkt 64% Kamala Harris will win 19Aug2024.png2024-09-01 12:40 176K 
[IMG]farm Financial Post net-farm-income-newsletter, 190815.png2019-08-16 06:49 6.8K 
[IMG]farm net income Canada, Financial Post 190815.png2019-08-16 10:13 6.8K 
[IMG]gas US EnergyInfAdmin: Working gas in underground storage compared with 5-year maximum and minimum, 230721.png2023-07-21 09:03 214K 
[DIR]gimp/2025-05-02 21:36 -  
[IMG]gold China reserves vs gold price 1998-2012.jpg2024-07-28 22:49 90K 
[IMG]gold Hulbert: Golds monthly return versus Citis US inflation surprise index.png2024-07-28 22:49 125K 
[IMG]gold IvanLabrie: Gold long term trend & historical comparison, 220928.png2022-09-28 14:21 192K 
[IMG]gold gold price vs China reserves 1998-2012, 141123.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 90K 
[IMG]gold price vs Swiss franc 1972-2012.gif2024-07-28 22:49 24K 
[IMG]house Dent : Likely home-price peak near $452k, sharpest spike ever since covid, 220601.png2022-06-06 16:45 165K 
[IMG]house Dent: existing home sales 35% volume down 2010-2023.png2023-11-01 13:11 102K 
[IMG]house Dent: mortgage purchase index 1990-2023, worse than 2008.png2023-11-01 13:00 57K 
[IMG]house Dent Contrary to perceptions, new home sales have fallen rapidly sinceAug2020, 220601.png2022-06-06 16:49 155K 
[IMG]house Dent Normal-valuation housing markets increasingly rare, mostly in upper midWest, 220601.png2022-06-06 16:39 218K 
[IMG]house Dent after extreme lows in late 2020, housing months supply exploding back up, 220601.png2022-06-06 16:50 58K 
[IMG]house FedRes via Keith Jurow 02Apr2020 mortgage re-defaults 2015.png2020-04-02 19:53 225K 
[IMG]house Goldstein: China excess housing, but 96% home ownership, no homelessness 11Sep2024.png2024-09-13 12:50 341K 
[IMG]house Hulbert, Philadelphia Fed: Seven decades of no capital gains.png2024-07-23 12:47 56K 
[IMG]house Perry: Home prices US vs Canada 2010-2011, 141123.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 180K 
[IMG]house Puetz - mortgages, serious delinquency of non-agency RMBS loans.jpg2019-05-26 11:30 76K 
[IMG]house Swaminathan, UBS global real estate bubble index, 230925.png2023-09-26 09:51 214K 
[IMG]house prices US-Canada in $CDN 1999-2012.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 199K 
[IMG]house price vs personal income US-Canada 1980-2010.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 37K 
[IMG]immig Dent: Immigration trending the right direction.jpg2024-09-03 10:27 27K 
[IMG]inflat Howell, TradingView: SP500 inflation rate is like covid years, 14%-per-year, 230609.png2023-08-02 09:32 102K 
[IMG]inflatn Dent: US Inflation vs Quantitative Easing 2002-2020, 201124.jpeg2020-11-26 13:30 34K 
[IMG]inflatn Piepenburg: Consumer inflation - official vs Shadow Stats 14Sep2022.png2024-07-28 22:49 105K 
[IMG]inflatn Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p540 London consumer, Chinese rice rices.jpg2019-03-11 18:03 1.1M 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: 150+ years of conservative investing, winning by losing less, from Batussen, Vleir, May.png2022-05-28 00:04 242K 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: ETFs underperform same mutual funds.png2023-11-21 14:15 103K 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: More risk doesnt always lead to more return, 28May2022.png2022-05-28 00:03 80K 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: MorningStar [mutual fund, ETF]slong-run lag 21Mar2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 58K 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: Schiller CAPE ratio since 1871 27Feb2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 59K 
[IMG]invest Hulbert: Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns, Philosophical Economics blog, 230327.jpeg2023-03-27 11:41 94K 
[IMG]invest MrRenev, TV: Comparing different investing time frames, 200910.png2020-09-21 08:45 300K 
[IMG]invest Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p541 USA personal financial index tests.jpg2019-03-11 18:06 955K 
[IMG]invest TradingView Leap3 competition [winner, highlight, insight]s 04Sep2024.png2024-09-12 13:31 641K 
[IMG]invest VasilyTrader best reversal price actions, 230414.png2023-04-14 07:23 247K 
[IMG]jobs Dent: US job openings versus SPX, 2001-2023.png2023-11-01 12:55 78K 
[IMG]labor Dent: Labor force participation rate vs inflation, 220111.png2022-01-11 11:55 124K 
[IMG]labor Dent: labor force growth vs inflation US 1953-2013, 180822.jpg2018-08-22 11:32 2.6M 
[IMG]labor Dent: labor force growth vs inflation US 1953-2013, 180824.jpg2018-08-24 11:30 2.6M 
[IMG]labor Zeihan 2016 Mexican boom - labour cheaper than China post-2008.png2022-05-17 16:45 113K 
[IMG]loan FedResDallas Bank lending has rolled over after SVB, 230406.png2023-04-06 18:23 245K 
[IMG]manuf UBS Group: Manufacturing has slowed much more than services, 230721.png2023-07-21 08:29 149K 
[IMG]money Dent, Reventure Consulting: M2 contracts 1st time since Great Depression, 1930-1932.png2023-10-17 07:10 95K 
[IMG]nino NOAA: El Nino global climate impacts [Dec-Feb, Jun-Aug]2024, 230714.png2023-07-14 11:41 399K 
[IMG]oil-price-versus-unemployment US 1970-2010.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 37K 
[IMG]oil FinPost: Canada prodn costs, 160502.png2016-05-02 22:10 543K 
[IMG]oil Goldman Sachs Cost curve of GS oil top projects, 230929.jpeg2023-09-29 14:59 62K 
[IMG]oil IvanLabrie TW Oil long term trend & historical comparison, 28Sep2022.png2022-09-28 14:14 126K 
[IMG]oil Roogers- world fiscal systems for oil, 141123.png2014-11-23 21:28 295K 
[IMG]oil Zeihan: Full cycle breakeven oil prices (2012 average), 16mmdd.png2022-05-17 16:12 55K 
[IMG]oil dow_gold_oil_crb1900-current, 141123.png2014-11-23 21:28 45K 
[IMG]oil dow_gold_oil_crb1900current_rev, 141123.png2014-11-23 21:28 41K 
[IMG]oil dow_gold_oil_crb1966-current,141123.png2014-11-23 21:28 29K 
[IMG]oil price vs $Canadian 2006-2012.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 48K 
[IMG]oil price vs Rig Count world 1975-2010.jpg2014-11-23 21:28 30K 
[IMG]oil price vs US unemployment 19702010.jpg2024-07-28 22:49 37K 
[IMG]pandemic Howell: SP500 uptrend parallel to covid period,230802.png2023-08-02 09:14 377K 
[IMG]pandemic MarketWatch 200320 Shawn Langlois from Thomas Hayes DJIA Spanish flu, TradingView SPX vs SHCOMP corona virus.jpg2020-03-20 15:19 220K 
[IMG]pandemic MarketWatch Cumulative COVID-19 cases for countries temperate vs tropics 17Mar2020.png2020-03-17 06:59 139K 
[IMG]popln Dent: China population from ~1.43G 2010 -> 0.8G 2100.png2023-11-01 12:48 24K 
[IMG]popln Dent: US births lagged for peak spending, 180822.png2018-08-22 11:36 2.0M 
[IMG]popln Dent: births lagged 46 years vs DOW Index US 1956-2056 v2, 180824.jpg2018-08-24 11:30 2.0M 
[IMG]productivity Dent: China productivity slowing, 4.5% 2008 -> 0.7% 2019.png2023-11-01 12:51 27K 
[IMG]rate Prechter 80 years interest rates 210907.png2021-09-07 18:04 121K 
[IMG]rate Puetz 10y Treasury minus 1y LIBOR 190516.jpg2019-05-26 10:32 45K 
[IMG]rate Puetz: Japan 10y government bond yield, 190516.jpg2019-05-26 10:35 41K 
[IMG]rate Puetz: USA 10y government bond yield, 190516.jpg2019-05-26 10:36 41K 
[IMG]rate Puetz Germany 10y government bond yield 190516.jpg2019-05-26 10:35 40K 
[IMG]recess Dent: Sahm Rule of Surging Unemployment Explains Fed Panic of 2020-2022.png2023-12-02 09:55 114K 
[IMG]recess Dhaval Joshi: most markets confirm a world recession, 230706.png2023-07-09 19:18 286K 
[IMG]recess Dhaval Joshi: world recession is sub-2 percent growth (past recessions), 230706.png2023-07-09 19:15 236K 
[IMG]recess FedRes: Fed rate-hiking cycles are often followed by a recession, 230723.png2023-07-23 21:40 76K 
[IMG]save UBS Group: Excess savings have supported the consumer, 230721.png2023-07-21 08:11 116K 
[IMG]sector Hulbert: What the sector relative strength ranking is saying, 230314.png2023-03-14 16:42 186K 
[IMG]social Dent: unfunded entitlements US 2011, 180822.jpg2018-08-22 11:32 2.7M 
[IMG]social Dent unfunded entitlements US 2011, 180824.jpg2018-08-24 11:30 2.7M 
[IMG]stkFunds Vecchio: Vecchios strategy returns 2002-2024 beat SP500, 240822.png2024-09-19 10:43 74K 
[IMG]stkFunds Vecchio: Vecchios strategy returns 2003-2024 weekly trades not as good, 240829.png2024-09-19 10:51 61K 
[IMG]stkFunds Vecchio: distribution of active fund returns 1992-2022, 240905.png2024-09-19 10:35 36K 
[IMG]stkIdx- US vs global equity relative price perfom.png2023-11-29 19:40 163K 
[IMG]stkIdx Amjad Farooq: DJIA 1919-29 versus 2010-20, 200319.png2020-03-19 18:07 125K 
[IMG]stkIdx Dent: Shanghai comp 2005-23 projects ~3,200 -> 1,000.png2023-11-01 12:46 33K 
[IMG]stkIdx Hulbert: Mandlebrot's "Joseph Effect", 10 yr feast-famine changeovers 02&05Oct2024.png2024-10-05 12:08 130K 
[IMG]stkIdxVal Hulbert: stock market is dangerously overvalued now 26Aug2024.png2024-09-01 12:33 203K 
[IMG]stkIdx Vecchio: 1994-2024 global equity valuation [small vs large, value vs growth, [ex vs ]-USA] 23Sep2024.png2024-09-24 09:01 310K 
[IMG]stkIdx del Vecchio: Red Alert- Investor credit and the Market.png2024-09-12 08:58 131K 
[IMG]stk Insiders- Insiders have taken a sharply bearish turn 25Jul2024 Hulbert, [Nejat, Jon] Seyhun.png2024-07-28 22:49 117K 
[IMG]stkidx Goldman Sachs [SPX, NDX, RUT] 1985-2019 index seasonality, 210921.png2021-09-21 09:09 216K 
[IMG]stkidx Hulbert, FedReserve: SP500 real return 10y hindcast vs SP500-M2 ratio 23Jul2024.png2024-08-05 08:47 128K 
[IMG]stkidx Hulbert - SP500 exponential semi-log trendline 1871-2022, 221029.png2022-10-29 12:32 43K 
[IMG]stkidx Hulbert- trailing six months correlation between the total stock and total bond markets, 220107.png2022-01-07 15:52 123K 
[IMG]stkidx Hulbert: ConfBrd Consumer ConfIndx vs UMichigan Consumer SentimentIdx 27Jul2024.png2024-08-05 08:36 142K 
[IMG]stkidx Hulbert SP500 exponential semi-log trendline 1871-2022, 29Oct2022.png2022-10-29 12:32 43K 
[IMG]stkidx Kollmeyer, Goldman Sachs: Big tech companies- S&P 500 to 6,000 or 4,500 this year 25Mar2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 121K 
[IMG]stkidx Michael Batnick DJIA 1919-2018 with post- crash recovery, 200319.png2020-03-21 14:44 84K 
[IMG]stkidx Prechter 212 years DJIA index 210907.png2021-09-07 17:08 132K 
[IMG]stkidx Prechter 212 years DJIA index 210907 cycles [20, 40] years.png2021-09-07 17:21 139K 
[IMG]stkidx Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p543 USA stock prices tests.jpg2019-03-11 18:10 949K 
[IMG]stkidx Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p544 USA stock prices half hour.jpg2019-03-11 18:11 1.1M 
[IMG]stkidx Puetz & Borchardt 2011 p545 USA stock prices tests.jpg2019-03-11 18:14 1.0M 
[IMG]stkidxVal Hulbert: 9 valuation metrics 240227.png2024-03-21 22:35 105K 
[IMG]stkidxVal Hulbert: 9 valuation metrics 240528.png2024-06-02 10:34 90K 
[IMG]tech Dent: Disruption and Overlapping S-Curves, Internet of past -> Blockchain future.png2023-11-01 12:26 24K 
[IMG]tech Dent: Evolution of computers in overlapping S-curves 1946-2022.png2023-11-01 12:29 39K 
[IMG]tech Dent: Tech Stocks Outperform S&P 500 Even More Than at 2000 and 1968 Tops.png2023-12-02 10:15 134K 
[IMG]tech Goldstein: Europes tech failings also may be alarming to the US 09Sep2024.png2024-09-13 12:58 233K 
[IMG]tech Howell looks OK.png2024-07-28 22:49 277K 
[IMG]vote Hulbert: DJIA predicts Biden win at 58.8% probability 21May2024.png2024-07-28 22:49 92K 
[IMG]vote Prechter 1999 Landslide elections & Stock Prices, 200313.jpg2020-03-13 17:50 1.0M 
[IMG]vote VincePrice TV: impact of presidential election on financial markets, 200920.png2020-09-21 08:39 240K 
[IMG]wage Johnson: US real average earning index 1964-2022, 231023.png2023-11-01 10:46 25K 
[IMG]work Dent: Japan gt 50pct work >65yr, less in [NrthAm, Europe].png2024-09-24 08:46 22K 
[DIR]z_history/2026-01-15 21:09 -  

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