Subject: Puetz & Borchardt - 512 year cycle and Collapses of Civilisations|
From: "Bill Howell. Hussar. Alberta. Canada" <>
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2019 20:25:05 -0600
Note - There are many problems with the links as I forgot to replace spaces with %20 and I restructured the site at least a couple of years ago. I've tried to fix the links, and put text versions beside each link (make sure you copy the whole text to browser).
It took a while for www.ijcnn.org problems to calm down so that I could send this to you.
Here is Puetz's analysis of Wheeler's Table of civilization collapses
Compare it to the "27Sep09 The Sun and civilisations - Echos of the 2012 end of the Mayan calendar Great Cycle of 5,126 years?" link below. Of course you used some earlier graphs in your book "Grand Phases on the Sun". Pages in the web-directory below explain some of Puetz's statistical tests. I'm impressed with Puetz's work, but still not entirely comfortable that even his work is enough for real "quasi-cycles", and it lacks the shear conceptual power and results of Paul Vaughan in Vancouver (he doesn't do any of this anymore, as far as I am aware).
I've photographed several pages from Puetz's book, and posted them to my web-site :
Puetz & Borchardt web-directory
Puetz's "Universal Wave Series" is a fascinating approach to cycles, the only equivalent I'm aware of is the 20-or-so calendar system and how they used that, but I assume that all ancient civilisations may have had something similar. Western civilisation isn't much good at this, and maybe that helps avoid the [mental, social] disease of "cyclo-mania". But it does lead to laughable blindness.
Puetz's statistical modelling is top class - far beyond what I normally see even in science. He has also been mathematically inventive (collaborating with some professor). He uses extremely tight test levels, and is careful to reject "success" when his models come close. Most of the "quasi-cycles" I run into don't really fit into his UWS series, but perhaps his future developments will lead to a much broader basis for explaining many other cycles (still UWS is quite successful over time scales and subjects!). There is no sign that he has applied fractional order calculus, though, and that is something I expect even if essentially no-one is doing it - apart from Paul Vaughan in Vancouver.
I'm just reading through Borchardt's "neo-mechanics". It's wildly different from modern physics, and probably much closer to "natural philosophy" as physics was known before ~1905. [Loose, full of assumptions, approximate], the neomechanics leaves me a bit uncomfortable, but at least he's not a wild as [big bang, black holes, dark [energy, matter], general relativity, quantum mechanics, etc].
Volunteer firefighter, Member of Hussar Lion's Club & Sundowners
P.O. Box 299, Hussar, Alberta, T0J1S0
From "Howell's Blog" http://www.billhowell.ca/Howell%20-%20blog.html
It is interesting to note that the Mayan Great Cycle period of roughly 5,126 years is one-quarter of the Mayan Grand Cycle of 25,630 years, which is approximately the precessional cycle of the Earth's axis, which is one of three cycles commonly associated with Milankovic cycles (Earth orbit eccentricity (~100 ky and 400 ky), Earth axis obliquity (40+ ky) and precession (26 ky)).
I'll fix the link another day...