?date? This is one of the great periods of all
history – fantastic wealth generation, far superior
opportunities for freedom and self-fulfillment all over the globe.
The future holds tremendous promise! There are risks (debt levels in
the Anglo countries, chronic deficits in the West, radicalism in some
regions, etc), but in spite of comments below, I really think that
this is a golden era. (Dec04, Xmas letter)
Globalisation
of professions – the rising prominence of managers,
technical thinkers (science, engineering, computer, other
professions), and service industries from "emerging world"
should really start to be seen soon. These areas are already highly
visible in manufacturing and trade. But as an example, we need to be
able to use their talents in areas like research, and management/
labour. The skills are there, and their cost is very competitive, and
they will add tremendously to overall wealth in the world. (Dec04,
Xmas letter)
For a few years now some of the economic/
financial commentators (the trustworthy ones – however much one
can trust projections and forecasts) have been signalling a oncoming
wave of globalization in professional services (everybody but
lawyers) – India and China being good examples. It's something
that strikes me as making sense, and in the long run it will be good
for everybody, but there may be some bumps along the road, especially
for the high cost, less competitive regions. Now the opportunities
for an R&D lab are apparent – as we (here I refer to the
Canadian government lab where I worked at the time) may collaborate
with Indian scientists to do a project that may help the Canadian
steel industry. Although its a bit of a long shot, there has been
little hope of doing the project in Canada thus far. The project
costs in India and the rapid growth of their steel industry make it
much easier to envisage demonstrating the technology there. One
recent comment in the financial papers is that high-tech venture
capitalists in California are no much more interested in knowing how
companies are able to take advantage of the Indian engineers and
scientist, in order to be globally competitive. (Dec03, Xmas
letter)
Fine-grained nuclear proliferation - in my opinion a potential trend in the
not-too-distant-future may be towards "fine-grained"
nuclear proliferation (strong leaders, individuals controlling
nuclear arsenals), as opposed to the coarse-grained or national
proliferation underway. This is especially a possibility following
Sep01 when national leaders in "nuclear-hopeful" countries
everywhere realised that the one nation that might actually do
something about proliferation is not supported by the international
community, and will have limited ability to engage other hot spots in
the future (especially with much strong spheres of influence for
China, Japan, Germany, and perhaps India). Admittedly a long shot,
and probably not for another 20-40 years. Coarse-grained
proliferation is really what I think the Iraq focus was/is about –
oil and the rest are side-shows. (Dec04, Xmas letter)
Imploding US dollar and declining prominence
of the "advanced" economies – the
potential for this is moderate, and it may look bad from our
perspective, and it may really hurt in the most affected industries
and during times of rapid, chaotic or discontinuous change (Canadians
will have to learn to be competitive and productive again, something
we've forgotten in the last couple of generations), but in fact we're
in no real danger, and the overall results will likely be fantastic
for everyone. Furthermore, one strength of the Americans has been
that in spite of the occasion blunder, their competitors are far more
hamstrung by habit and their own politically correct thinking,
whereas the US makes the tough decisions, and changes the way they do
things. (Hopefully they will be able to do so in the future as well,
butthe trend is ominous – especially when you look at the
universities). Some of this "old forecast" has already been
fulfilled by the US dollar declines over the last 3 years. (Dec04,
Xmas letter)
.....We're about to witness an implosion in the
gap between reality and perception on American economic, military,
and political strength. (?date?)
Huge
North American debt loads – I won't go into detail
here... I just hope that I can buy a house cheaply in 2 to 4 years,
rather than losing on housing as in the past. (When I buy, you sell,
etc) (Dec04, Xmas letter)
Switch to
"Global Currency Units" as a basis for international
business and trade – my knowledgeable friends
disagree with me on this, but I think even citizens would benefit
(shelter from political manipulations of wealth without consent –
\in developing nations and Canada). Gold, for exampe, already behaves
in terms \ of GCUs, not $US – but most market commentators
don't get it. (Dec04, Xmas letter)
Infant
Day-Care - This seems to hold intriguing potential,
politically-correct or not, and independent of the purported versus
real drivers behind this trend. Big risks, too, with historical
precedence in different forms. (Dec04, Xmas letter)
.....Look
at the trend - from cradle to grave education, less and less of a
role of biological parents. (?date?)
original 27Jan07
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