#] #] ********************* #] "$d_web"'economics, markets/market news extraInfo.txt' # www.BillHowell.ca 29Sep2023 initial # view in text editor, using constant-width font (eg courier), tabWidth = 3 see also : "$d_web"'economics, markets/market news.txt' "$d_web"'economics, markets/market news extraInfo.txt' "$d_PROJECTS""Investments/0_daily trade plan.ods" "$d_PROJECTS""Investments/7_cheap advice [assumption, plan]s.txt" #48************************************************48 #24************************24 # Table of Contents, generate with : # $ grep "^#]" "$d_web"'economics, markets/market news extraInfo.txt' | sed "s/^#\]/ /" # ********************* "$d_web"'economics, markets/market news extraInfo.txt' SP500 semiLog trendline 1926-2022 timeFractals : Fibonacci versus PuetzUWS example : 5yr ttimeFractal in TradingView : ?date? "social engineering" of the [market, economy]s 24************************24 #] SP500 semiLog trendline 1926-2022 SP500 semiLog trendline 1926-2022 : 10 power (-56.7736 + (0.029831 * year)), relStdDev_plus1 = 1 + 0.0937853 Yr* 2000 2005 2010 2015 2022 2022.5 2022.75 2023 2025 2030 2040 2050 SP500 773 1090 1537 2167 3505 3627 3690 3754 4307 6071 12,068 23,985 Yr* 01Jan of year covid runup semiLog trend ~14 nominal%/year (log rate 0.145, vs 0.0298 1926-2022) #] timeFractals : Fibonacci versus PuetzUWS Fibonacci [0.000 0.146 0.236 0.382 0.500+ 0.618 0.764+ 1.000] Puetz mix [0.000 0.133 0.222 0.333 0.500* 0.667 0.778 1.000] [+Fibonacci, *Puetz UWS] do NOT have, but traders like these ratios #] example : 5yr ttimeFractal in TradingView : Puetz factor-of-3 trimeFractal [depth, period]s: (not accurate < 3 months, weekends etc) 1D : (0) 1.56 hours; (1) 4.68 hours; (2) 14.0 hours; (3) 1.75 days; (4) 5.27 days; 5D : (0) 4.68 hours; (1) 14.0 hours; (2) 1.75 days; (3) 5.27 days; (4) 2.26 weeks; 1M : (0) 1.75 days; (1) 5.27 days; (2) 2.26 weeks; (3) 1.56 months; (4) 4.68 months; 3M : (0) 5.27 days; (1) 2.26 weeks; (2) 1.56 months; (3) 4.68 months; (4) 1.17 years; 6M : (0) 2.26 weeks; (1) 1.56 months; (2) 4.68 months; (3) 1.17 years; (4) 3.51 years; 1Y : (0) 2.26 weeks; (1) 1.56 months; (2) 4.68 months; (3) 1.17 years; (4) 3.51 years; 5Y : (0) 4.68 months; (1) 1.17 years; (2) 3.51 years; (3) 10.53 years; (4) 31.5 years; All: (0) 1.17 years; (1) 3.51 years; (2) 10.53 years; (3) 31.59 years; (4) 94.7 years; #] ?date? "social engineering" of the [market, economy]s I needed to work over this list to help re-orient my thinking away from my mistakes of the last 20 years. I now assume that financial [market, sector] performance is now over-whelmingly dominated by government actions (including the modern Federal Reserve Bank). "Social Engineering of the [market, economy]" means that the market has much less to do with traditional [level playing field, free market, effective resource allocation, market adaptation over time] concepts. Ergo, traditional valuation measures do not have the same influence that they had 30-40 years ago, and [behaviour, expectation]s of [government, corporate]* [management, employee]s have changed. Government, and government [promote, fund, protect]ed corporate activity, is a much larger part of the economy than in the past, and may not be much different than in some other countries. As has been the norm through history, corporate political [affiliations, connectedness] will be more important than during the 20th century. Some interesting background : - In spite of government management of the market, major crashes every ~10 years are the new norm, compared to smaller cycles 1871-1920. [Deficit, debt] levels are vastly beyond what would have been acceptable in the past, so it is assume that they pose greater national societal risks now, and far greater global societal risks. Controls are definitely more [powerful, swift], hopefully enough so for the far greater risks. - SP500 index runup since mid-Oct2022 is running roughly parallel to the covid period semiLog trend ~14 nominal%/year (log rate 0.145, vs 0.0298 1926-2022). Will this become the "new norm", dragging [CPI, PPI] with it? - the SP500 tracks the ups&downs of both [10year T-bond rate, FedLiaCap] with [~1 month lag (FedLiaCap = sum of Federal Reserve [liability, capital, other]) - SP500 gently tracks the SP500 earnings yield (yr basis), with a lag of 5-6 months. Earnings are a far [weaker, more lagged] influence on SP500 leavels than the both [10year T-bond rate, FedLiaCap]. For parts of the SP500, eg new tech, earnings are non-existant for decade-scale durations, and for some parts potential future earnings growth is the driver. - the SP500 P/E ratio seems to imply a 10year forward earning growth of ~15%/yr from a very [simple, iffy] model - the SP500 earnings yield (yr) is crossing over the 10 year bond rate, declining slightly since last summer, but lots of room to increase towards historical numbers. - Fed rates are still modest compared to pre-Aug2007 - NO talk about [Fed, US Treasury] [deficit, debt] reduction to pre-2020 levels, nor of the risks - China's not the driver of global growth that it once was, India's not there yet, and the US hasn't been for decades. - USA strengths in [financial, hi-tech] markets are rapidly declining as other parts of the world catch up. What happened to US [manufacturing, transportation, productivity] will likely repeat in the USA strengths. "AI" may not even get to the global dominance that other US industries have enjoyed. not included : This is often credited to the AI "magnificent 7" or something like that, while the rest of the market hasn't looked as good. The US federal debt in the federal reserve also seems to have an effect but reporting is not as to-date, and government budgets probably have ups&downs of their own against a montonic increase over the decades # enddoc