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Puetz Universal Wave Series (UWS) model for a back-extended SP500

"... History never repeats itself, but it rhymes. ..." (which author(s) down through history?)

Table of Contents


NOTE : The model here is DEFINITELY NOT suitable for application to [trade, invest]ing! It's far too [early, incomplete, immature, erroneous]! See Stephen Puetz for the investment side ot the UWS.


Model results

"SP500 & DJIA indexes back to 1872"

Linear semi-log segments [1872-1926, 1926-2020]

Fibonnaci levels versus log-levels
Larger Fibonnaci's at greater timescales

How do I get negative numbers from a log transformation of the data?


"Key [results, comments]"

"PuetzUWS 2011 [normal, double]-wave series combined"

More and more like Fourier series analysis, but potentially with greater predictive capability? (see section below)


"Conventional semi-log plot of the PuetzUWS model"

"Conventional semi-log plot of the PuetzUWS model"

"SP500 time-segment overlays"

My first semi-log detrended plot of the SP500 1872-2020 is in the webPage title?. On that webPage, I overlay SP500 series from




Puetz's UWS as a highly-constrained Fourier wave series analysis



???



???



???



Was 2007-2009 the modern equivalent to the 1929 crash?


Was 2007-2009 the moderen equivalent to the 1929 crash, less the socialist abuse of the free market? ??MacKay?? reference ??MacKay??'s commments are certainly unconventional, but merit closer attention. Key points :

How can the S&P 500 stock market index be correlated with 'dead' system?



What's [missing from, wrong with] the current model?



Inspirations

Inspired by many historians and financial market analysts, most notably but not limited to (in order of appearance on the world stage) :
Ibn Khaldun "The Muqquadimmah"
?? Tijevski?
?? Kondriatieff
?? Elliot's waves
Arnold J. Toynbee "A Study of History"
  • (the full 10-12 volumes, I was missing one or two, now I have only the abridged two-volume set

  • Ivanka Charvova - best concept I've seen of solar activity over 5-10 ky Steven Yaskell and Willie Soon "Grand phases on the Sun" - wonderful descriptions of the Maunder grand solar minimum and many scientists and others Harry Dent - the most successful 10-40 year [economic, financial] forecaster that I am aware of
    Robert Prechter's Socionomics, the first quantitative Sociology
    Peter Fischers "The Great Wave" - I forget which author (probably Stephen Puetz who used some of the data) mentioned Fischer's book, but it is a real gem, built on the meticulous work of numerous historians. I consider it to be one of the great historical works. Stephen Puetz, and especially co-authors [Glen Borchardt, Andreas Prokoph, ??],
  • and the system of 20+ Mayan calendars

  • Ray Dalio of ?BlackRock" Hedge fund "??"


    ??Jan2020 initial posting

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