/media/bill/SWAPPER/Website - raw/economics, markets/Howell - MktWatch blog posts.txt www.BillHowell.ca 11May2020 initial - collected comments Includes my Facebook positngs on [markets, corona virus] Barron's post - Yes I can - just go to the Barron's site! ******** 19May2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-could-vote-on-bill-that-could-delist-chinese-companies-from-us-stock-exchanges-2020-05-19?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore Capitol Report Senate may vote on bill that could delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges Published: May 19, 2020 at 5:07 p.m. ET By Chris Matthews The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act would force Chinese companies to adhere to U.S. securities law As U.S.-China tensions continue to mount amid a war of words over China’s culpability in the coronavirus pandemic, the Senate looks set to consider sweeping new legislation that could ultimately bar many Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. exchanges, or otherwise raising money from American investors. Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, is preparing to submit the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act for unanimous consent in the Senate as early as on Tuesday, said Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners, in a note. The legislation has been co-sponsored by Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota. The law would require Chinese companies to establish they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government. Furthermore, they would be required to submit to an audit that can be reviewed by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the nonprofit body that oversees audits of all U.S. companies that seek to raise money in public markets. “The central core of the U.S. stock markets is that publicly listed companies are subject to financial oversight,” wrote attorney Steve Dickinson of Harris Bricken in the China Law Blog, adding that American companies seeking to raise money publicly must be audited by an accredited firm and that these audits are further monitored by the PCAOB. China has refused to allow its companies to follow U.S. securities law, arguing that Chinese law bars auditors’ work from being transferred out of the country, Dickinson wrote. “Stated more directly, unlike companies from the U.S. and Europe and everywhere else in the world, Chinese companies that list on the U.S. stock exchanges are exempt from meaningful financial oversight,” the lawyer said. The Senate legislation is not the first attempt by Congress to reform this state of affairs, which resulted from a 2013 agreement between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Chinese regulators. But with U.S.-China relations deteriorating in an election year, chances of this bill becoming law are higher than during past efforts, Treyz said. +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/call-it-fate-call-it-karma-why-the-coronavirus-is-merely-the-final-kick-into-the-abyss-for-the-us-economy-2020-05-19?mod=newsviewer_click ‘Call it fate, call it karma’ — Why the coronavirus is merely ‘the final kick into the abyss’ for the U.S. economy Published: May 19, 2020 at 5:52 p.m. ET By Shawn Langlois Charles Hugh Smith The man behind the OfTwoMinds.com, which was recognized by CNBC as one of the best alternative financial blogs on the internet, has been calling for the implosion of the U.S. empire for years now, and the coronavirus pandemic has him believing that time has finally come. “The slippery slope to collapse — decadence — is characterized by greed, corruption, irreconcilable internal political rifts, moral decay, frivolity, materialism,” Smith writes. “Hmm, sound familiar?” The pandemic is merely “the final kick into the abyss,” he said, after the global financial crisis laid bare the fragile nature of an economy kept alive with artificial stimulus. “Elites have done nothing but kick the can down the road for over a decade,” he wrote. “Nothing that’s broken has been fixed; all that’s been done is trillions in currency has been borrowed or printed to paper over the dissolution, decay and decline.” Smith warned of a “terminal crisis” that begins in 2021, regardless of any progress made to bring an end to the pandemic and kickstart the ravaged global economy. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/019512121X?ie=UTF8&tag=charleshughsm-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=019512121X#reader_019512121X &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Bob Parish - The book "The Fourth Turning" describes an 80 year cycle of ups and downs, driven by generational values. Written in 1996, the authors predicted that the next "Crisis" period or "turning" would arrive between 2005 and 2008 and last for about 20 years. The previous Crisis Turning included the Great Depression and WWII. This one will include the Great Recession, Donald Trump, COVID-19 and who knows what's to come. It's a fascinating read. Check it out on Amazon. John Locke - Thanks Bob, I'll check it out. It sounds similar to Ray Dalio's long term debt cycle and Chris Cole's hawk and serpent periods and Kondratieff Waves. Bill Howell - Cool! I haven't seen Russian Kondriatieff's name on [blogs, articles] for decades (I forget the last time - 1984 or 1987?). Kondriatieff for 60-90 year cycle, Russian Alexander Tchijevsky sunspot scalee correlates of behaviour of human masses [war, social progress, etc etc]. Both went to the gulags, if I remember correctly. Sacha Dobler's "Solar History" is a great romp, and Stephen Puetz's "Universal Waves Series" is by far the greatest [breadth, depth] of analysis I've seen (also his investment newsletter - http://www.uct-news.com/). Scott Hudson - Look. I'm no "Trumper" but really...you want Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine right now? We would be in World War 3 with Russia by now...our economy would be a vassal to China and oil would be at $130 a barrel and the United States would be back to buying 40% of our oil from the Mid-East and embroiled in those territory wars to keep the oil flowing. C'mon, lets get real for just a freaking second. Jeff Thompson - Oh look, someone raided Hannity's wastebasket for talking points. I purchased : https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=David+Hackett+%22The+Great+Wave%3A+Price+Revolutions+and+the+Rhythm+of+History%22&ref=nb_sb_noss The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer | Apr 30 1999 ******** 10May2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-says-teslas-california-plant-will-reopen-despite-shutdown-order-2020-05-11?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=E-mail&utm_content=replied-your-message&spot_im_redirect_source=email&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true&spot_im_reply_id=sp_ekXntyLk_EAC0DB6C-93C8-11EA-BFB2-DE7CC0F16A90_c_BG0slL_r_GYlRL3&utm_spot=sp_ekXntyLk Tesla’s California plant reopens despite shutdown order, Elon Musk dares county to arrest him Published: May 11, 2020 at 7:16 p.m. ET By Claudia Assis ‘If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me,’ Musk tweets &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell 19:00 10May2020 - I'm for Musk in this. Elgin Pierce - Buy a Tesla Howell - Nice idea, but I need cash for aging parents, and sister who lost job. Besides, I need a 3500 series [Ford, Gm, Chrysler] van, not a car, to replace the one that didn't survive a head-ion collision with a semi-tractor trailer (I was lucky on that one!!). Elgin Pierce - So you don't care about Musk. Plenty of one ton's on big 3 dealers lots. Plus discounts, incentives, and preferential financing. Howell - 22:15 11May2020 - Correct - but I must wait, family first. And I do care about Musk, only that money is a very limiting factor. The same happened when I was a member of the Electric Vehicle club of Ottawa a few years back. A member who did electric conversions offered me a great price on a Volkwagen Jetta, but one could only use lead acid batteries, decent solid state power devices were a decade or two away. Club members back then had been driving electric for decades, all through the Canadian winters. Cold doesn't kill they batteries (massive battery banks are easy to insulate!), heat does. So the club spent >>half our time discussion battery care and picking up underground railroad controllers. Not so good for driving to [Quebec City, Montreal, Toronto, Boston, etc], either. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-coronavirus-has-exposed-political-cracks-leading-to-a-disintegrating-europe-a-declining-america-and-a-shrinking-china-2020-05-07?mod=newsviewer_click Opinion: The coronavirus is accelerating America’s decline Published: May 10, 2020 at 8:19 p.m. ET By Arvind Subramanian The federal government’s response to the pandemic exposes incompetence and decay. The consequences will play out over years to come. Arvind Subramanian, a former chief economic adviser to the government of India, is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a visiting lecturer at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. The COVID-19 crisis augurs three watersheds: the end of Europe’s integration project, the end of a united, functional America, and the end of the implicit social compact between the Chinese state and its citizens. As a result, all three powers will emerge from the pandemic internally weakened, undermining their ability to provide global leadership. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& I like Arvind Subramanian's [critical, historical] perspective, and [ability, courage] to dwell on the issue of possible current declines of [Europe, US, China], although I view China as perhaps not quite as advanced. Foreign reactions to a rising power have historically been protectionist, which is not a sign of decline. But I would love to see comments on India, as many "futurists?" have long expected a role-over to their rising dominance in the 2040-2050 time-frame if I remember correctly, depending on their ability to overcome internal issues. With respect to corona virus, a basic per-capita analysis of daily new cases by country shows that the US impact is clearly NOT the standout in new daily cases : Spain was. Sweden is doing mid-range in spite of very lax controls, and Taiwan and others kept working and coped wonderfully (with strict personal protection equipment). All of this destroys much of the current rhetoric and finger-pointing. The real fascinating question is why are other cultural groups so very low in comparison? Are we too [clean, protected] for too long, leading to pampered immune systems that are having more trouble coping? Other nations with very low rates have even more highly inverted demographic pyramids, so age effects aren't clear. Lifestyle factors, reporting issues? Raymond Richard ~13:30 Are you blind? The western world has been viewing far eastern populations wearing masks for over a decade. Do the masks dampen their immune system? If they do why aren't there numbers of cases in billions of population as high as some cities in Europe? Howell 14:06 11May2020 Great point - I agree as a possible contributing explanation. I wear a mask in public, but that's a small minority at present here in Alberta (I look like a stand-out geek). The health experts kept saying it wouldn't really help, but Far Eastern result suggest maybe that's not the case as you point out. However, I still have to were gloves more consistently. I am using cotton because the "film gloves" rip apart, and normal [rubber, latex] gloves are almost all too small to put on. Cotton's maybe not the best? Still, does an apparent lack of masks explain other countries with low cases? I had to remove : Perhaps give China 4 generations to get to a turning point, as per Ibn Khaldun's "Muqquadimah". In my opinion Khaldun is a great fit for the modern situation, even if his book dates to ~1400 AD. is a bit on the higher end of caucasian nations. But it So far US is like Italy, without the same degree of triage . Travel and less propensity for following health officials recommendations could be contributors, or perhaps other factors such as high-quality reporting in spite of slowness to catch up on testing. +-----+ FB msg to Ian Hepher : My chart of new covid cases/day/population suggests that caucasians are particularly vulnerable. I don't want to jump to any conclusions, but bio-weapons is one of multiple conflicting hypothesis. There are far better ways to release than creating a local epidemic, but that does have the advantage of deflecting suspicions if you are into conspiracies. On the other hand, they targeted the wrong subset of the population for such an action if that was what happened unless it was just a low-level warning shot. Ebola would be far better maybe? I haven't charted the deaths - might not do that with other time pressures... On another point, if I double the highest level of projected US corona deaths per capita by 04Aug2020, and take the "median" deaths per capita due to recession, the latter is still much higher (500k vs 300k) not that the numbers have any accuracy. Oh yeah, that 0.1% death rate on a total population rate basis, but I assume that this just keeps going up linearly more or less for a long time, as per YYG projections look to 04Aug2020. resurgences and mutations would add to that. ******** 09May2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-same-number-of-people-could-die-from-deaths-of-despair-as-have-already-died-in-the-us-from-coronavirus-new-study-finds-2020-05-08?mod=newsviewer_click The same number of people could die from ‘deaths of despair’ as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds Published: May 9, 2020 at 8:14 p.m. ET By Quentin Fottrell ‘More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately’ In addition to more than 75,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19, the growing epidemic of “deaths of despair” in the U.S. is also increasing due to the pandemic — and another 75,000 more people will likely die from drug or alcohol misuse and suicide, according to new research released by Well Being Trust and the Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care. Projections of additional “deaths of despair” range from 27,644, assuming a quick economic recovery and the smallest impact from unemployment, to 154,037, assuming a slow recovery and the greatest impact from unemployment. “We can prevent these deaths by taking meaningful and comprehensive action as a nation,” the researchers wrote in the “deaths of despair” report published Friday. 200509 MarketWatch, Well Being Trust - deaths of despair with unemployment increases.png &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell : I don't get it. The table from Well Being Trust lists increases in mortality per 1% increase in unemployment, whereas unemployment has shot up by far more than that (say 10-20%). The [1, 1.3, 1.6]% groupings represent what? - I assumptions that the 1% is the base case, the rest are for higher scenarios, but it's confusing. Recalling the figure that apparently has been taught in economics classes, for every 1% increase in unemployment, 40,000 Americans due, so the table is in line with that, approximately. To me, it seems to suggest that FAR MORE Americans will die from the recession than corona virus, even if you take the higher range of model estimates. For example, the 08May2020 https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections model has a high range off 300k deaths due to corona virus by 04Aug2020 (~180k as best guess, ~120k low). Compare that to a naive wild guess of 10% increase of unemployment times a medium projection of 50k deaths per 1% increase of unemployment = 500k deaths? I don't have much confidence in any of the numbers, but perhaps these are the best that we have. ******** 07May2020 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&& https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/wcwI05pz-Trading-the-Volatility-of-Volatility-Itself/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_mention#tc3519063 Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil Bill_Howell 9 hours ago Very interesting thoughts. Is "VixVix" a bit like the "CDOs of CDOs" (I forget the expression) in the film "The Big Short"? The film showed Mark Baum's fear when he realized that the derivative market was 100 times the underlying markets (my memory is bad - might have that wrong). I can't remember if the film used the term "Ponzi scheme". This was a lot of fun in the housing mortgage market, should be a real scream when applied more broadly? While mainstream thinking is to create a stable environment, I keep thinking that "... too much stability is poison for a man's soul ..", engendering the attitude of entitlement, and the practice of bailouts, among other side effects. PRO_Indicators 9 hours ago @Bill_Howell, That's excatly it ! Same problem, just moved it to another area. 2008 popped bc of too much risk taken on housing credit. Nowaday the thing is about stock risk. Just like CDO prices back then were totally not reflecting the real risk of the associated credit package. Just replace Subprimes bt ETFs and CDOs by Puts&Calls and you've a got the next speculative bomb ! I can definitely tell you that there will be a crisis over this topic in the future ! When remains a tough question. It was just for an information purpose. Just saying that for now on we cannot use VIX as a true risk marker. That's the only reliable information that you can use immediately. The rest is just to bare in mind, avoiding to be too much invested into ETFs, a bit is OK of course Howell 21:00 07May2020 Then based on "The Big Short" film (Michael Lewis' book) you are kind of like ?Michael Bleury?", who was among the first to identify the problem, do real research, and [designed, established] the whole category of housing mortgage shorts. Then Vinnie ?? of Deutcsh Bank sets up a concept which is accidentally overheard (via wrong phone #) by Mark Baum's group (Morgan Stanley associated gang of renegades), and two young guys (Ben & ??) from Colorado hear about it in specialized financial newletters. All four groups had the same problems : - they had to act very fast, before everybody else jumped on board, which would have ruined the paybacks - [long term, dishonest] valuation by the issuers of the shorts, lasting well after the onset of the crash - they were able to cash in only a fraction of what was due, and only AFTER the issuers had dumped their stake on an [unsuspecting, misled] public in what was likely [criminal, civil] breach of trust But in my opinion, by FAR the most important point (either Vinnie himself or author Micahel Lewis) was the actual reason for the insane market behaviour - STUPIDITY by essentially all of the [professionals, intellectuals]. The film echos my thinking since at least 1988 about [government, academic] science researchers in my [secondary, non-expert] areas of interest : [fundamental theoretic physics, astronomy, geology, climate, etc]. I don't get quite the same feeling about my priority hobby R&D focus (neural networks), perhaps becasue it hasn't had time to develop such problems in the extreme. PRO_Indicators @Bill_Howell, I absolutely don't see things this way... Even if this movie can be used to compare... things are always different and never replicates as copy paste. I see patterns and similarities, that's it ! But if I had to give you my understanding of the film, the only information i take out of this is that fighting is stupid, building an entire portfolio about one big scenario of corruption and lies. This is smthg that can be morally seen as "good trading". But in the reality those who play this are in an endless paintrade before they get proven right. OK... but what's the point, the only thing I do personally is making sure I'm not too much exposed to stocks because they're the risky assets of the next big crisis, but still... atm the paradigm of "CB can save price from every major economic downturn" is still at play. Therefore i'm following the paradigm trade as long as it doesn't burst. I bought the lows as this was my plan... I cover the portfolio when I see risky potential areas. That's it. I also changed smthg else to my trading behaviour.. trying to avoid trading derivatives making my cover trades ONLY with futures contract and limiting as much as possible trading CFDs. And for the cover trade, I also make sure to trade broad and liquid instruments (only s&p500). Bill_Howell ~12:00 11May2020 @PRO_Indicators, Great comments, thanks for the perspective, and I like your points. ******** 05May2020 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell (part 1) - Are conventional [short, mid]-term [trading, fundamental] analysis tools anachronistic for this crash period? Given the huge [Treasury, Fed, Government] influence on the current market, and their [social, economic] policy perspective, I wonder if an engineeering-control perspective is actually more appropriate, and may describe what they are doing. If we take the [Treasury, Fed, Government] perspective, and I am plainly incompetent in these areas, key objectives may be : - to reduce the "avoidable" [short, mid, long]-term damage to [markets, economy, jobs, public confidence, psychological side effects] - to compensate for investor [fear, indecision, cash-hoarding] behaviour that naturally arises during crashes, but that can exaggerate greatly the damage - to accommodate "necessary" changes to the [markets, economy], balancing "creative destruction" with "social impact" and [mid, long] term growth - to use this opportunity to develop longer term [policies, tools], extending what has been done in previous crashes (particularly 2008) - to immediately apply an approach to [stabilise, underpin] investments that will help to positively adapt the economy - to minimise the debt [growth, mid-to-long term] impact related to the Keynesian support - "invisible hand" - the [Treasury, Fed, Government] cannot simply control the market by stated formulae, as they do need to see "real investor reactions". Otherwise everybody is flying blind (or more blind than usual). Howell (part 2) : It seems that the [Treasury, Fed, govenment] have already injected a substantial portion of the total market captilisation (say ~30 T$?). Guessing that this already amounts to >3-5 trillion$ of [cash, loan guarantees, interest rate cuts], combined with [municipal, state, federal] government "Keynesian" spending plans, this ~10%+ level should be sufficient to exercise significant "control" over the market status. Furthermore, there are clear indications that much more support will be provided if needed. In a sense, we are not in a period of "free markets", but rather state-[supported, controlled] markets. As shown in the linked chart, since ~07Apr2020, it seems that there may be a "flexible" S&P500 control zone of ~2770-2915, corresponding to Fibonacci levels 0.5-0.618 from the ~24Mar2020 bottom (to date). Just like [baby, momma, papa] bear, for now this would seem to be a comfortable compromise control zone, requiring minimal support (give and take) to achieve about the right results relative to their objectives? This would also be a [familiar, expected, comfortable] band for traders? From a control theory perspective, the tools could go far beyond simple "trading bands", and could include : - stability analysis to avoid un-intended overshoots or un-neccesarily small control actions (for non-linear systems, perhaps even Lyapunov-style math) - optimisation - maxium effect for minimum bucks (possibly self-[learning, evolving] controls based on Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) or reinforcement learning that adds-in ADP) I am wet behind the ears, and likely my comments are off-base, influenced by what I am more familiar with than markets. http://www.BillHowell.ca/economics,%20markets/200505%20SP500%20[Fed,%20Treasury,%20Govenment]%20control%20zone%20possibility,%20TradingView%20graph.png Too long - not included for MarketWatch, but included for TradingView, FaceBook : In a sense, we are not in a period of "free markets", but rather state-[supported, controlled] markets. Just like [baby, momma, papa] bear, for now this would seem to be a comfortable compromise control zone, requiring minimal support (give and take) to achieve about the right results relative to their objectives? I am wet behind the ears, and likely my comments are off-base, influenced by what I am more familiar with than markets. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& TradingView - without square brackets Update without square brackets, so original lists can be read (clumsy) : Are conventional (short, mid)-term (trading, fundamental) analysis tools anachronistic for this crash period? Given the huge (Treasury, Fed, Government) influence on the current market, and their (social, economic) policy perspective, I wonder if an engineeering-control perspective is actually more appropriate, and may describe what they are doing. If we take the (Treasury, Fed, Government) perspective, and I am plainly incompetent in these areas, key objectives may be : - to reduce the "avoidable" (short, mid, long)-term damage to (markets, economy, jobs, public confidence, psychological side effects) - to compensate for investor (fear, indecision, cash-hoarding) behaviour that naturally arises during crashes, but that can exaggerate greatly the damage - to accommodate "necessary" changes to the (markets, economy), balancing "creative destruction" with "social impact" and (mid, long) term growth - to use this opportunity to develop longer term (policies, tools), extending what has been done in previous crashes (particularly 2008) - to immediately apply an approach to (stabilise, underpin) investments that will help to positively adapt the economy - to minimise the debt (growth, mid-to-long term) impact related to the Keynesian support - "invisible hand" - the (Treasury, Fed, Government) cannot simply control the market by stated formulae, as they do need to see "real investor reactions". Otherwise everybody is flying blind (or more blind than usual). It seems that the (Treasury, Fed, govenment) have already injected a substantial portion of the total market captilisation (say ~30 T$?). Guessing that this already amounts to >3-5 trillion$ of (cash, loan guarantees, interest rate cuts), combined with (municipal, state, federal) government "Keynesian" spending plans, this ~10%+ level should be sufficient to exercise significant "control" over the market status. Furthermore, there are clear indications that much more support will be provided if needed. In a sense, we are not in a period of "free markets", but rather state-(supported, controlled) markets. As shown in the linked chart, since ~07Apr2020, it seems that there may be a "flexible" S&P500 control zone of ~2770-2915, corresponding to Fibonacci levels 0.5-0.618 from the ~24Mar2020 bottom (to date). Just like (baby, momma, papa) bear, for now this would seem to be a comfortable compromise control zone, requiring minimal support (give and take) to achieve about the right results relative to their objectives? This would also be a (familiar, expected, comfortable) band for traders? From a control theory perspective, the tools could go far beyond simple "trading bands", and could include : - stability analysis to avoid un-intended overshoots or un-neccesarily small control actions (for non-linear systems, perhaps even Lyapunov-style math) - optimisation - maxium effect for minimum bucks (possibly self-(learning, evolving) controls based on Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) or reinforcement learning that adds-in ADP) I am wet behind the ears, and likely my comments are off-base, influenced by what I am more familiar with than markets. http://www.BillHowell.ca/economics,%20markets/200505%20SP500%20[Fed,%20Treasury,%20Govenment]%20control%20zone%20possibility,%20TradingView%20graph.png ******** 26Apr2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-corporate-managers-are-coping-with-working-from-home-51587907790?mod=newsviewer_click How Corporate Managers Are Coping With Working From Home Published: April 26, 2020 at 9:29 a.m. ET By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Couldn't post again, where are my notes? : >> It's good to see the feedback with this article, and the [social, emotional] improvements are interesting to see. There was no mention of whether current arrangements are materially improving the participation of "distant offices". I always felt that video-conferencing still left them a bit of a disadvantage, but I retired several years ago so that may not be much of an issue even before the pandemic. ******** 25Apr2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/flatlined-hospitalization-numbers-in-new-york-state-troubling-2020-04-24?mod=mw_more_headlines Flatlined hospitalization numbers in New York state ‘troubling’ Published: April 25, 2020 at 8:47 a.m. ET By Beckie Strum Roughly 1,300 COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized daily in recent days, but public health experts say even plateaus can signal progress &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell : Why is a sustained flattened curve at all surprising? "Flattening the curve" also means "extending the curve", meaning one has to maintain the same economy-killing measures just to tread water until the curve declines. As typically stated, the curve [peaks, declines] when the virus has already infected a good chunk (40-60%? I don't know) of the population. Very high (perhaps approaching 100%) exposure of the entire population should be assumed in the mid-term, as with normal [common, cold, flue, etc]. This constrasts to TB, and other past quarantines. Essentially all of the "protection" comes from our immune systems (ready or not), with bad news for the [old, weak] and those for whom the virus has the key for their immune system. Nobody's been stupid enough to guess the benefit of reducing "medical overload", but I'm stupid, so out of ignorance I'll just cook up that 20-40% of the deaths that would have happened will be saved? Whatever it is, it's not 100%, nor is it seasonal flu. Hard-nosed decisions have to be made, and are being made. You might not trust the Chinese stats, but at least it seems (illusion?) that they are capable of making decisions, and aren't as dominated by our politically-correct thinking. They have their own politically-correct thinking to deal with. I cut out : A primary objective of social distancing, mostly to reduce [hospital, staff] overload and triaging. Did everyone think this as a very short term seasonal-like pandemic? but China has only recently relaxed, and it's not back to normal because many [China, Korea, Hong Kong, etc] gave some hope, but strong measures still apply. (still an overload) on the medical system The real question is a trade-off of many factors, including the economy. , barring or find better mixes of approaches ******** 24Apr2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-is-the-worlds-biggest-loser-from-oils-crash-and-thats-reason-to-be-worried-2020-04-24?mod=newsviewer_click Opinion: Russia is the world’s biggest loser from oil’s crash, and that’s reason to worry Published: April 24, 2020 at 5:56 p.m. ET By George Friedman Russia’s economy and power is highly dependent on oil and energy prices &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell : Great article that provides an historical context for the short-to-mid-term modern context. As for the longer term, on the one hand it's hard to give too much credence to the "end of oil" theme, given the [perpetual, ongoing, catastrophic] failure of the idea for perhaps 150 years. On the other hand the historical roll-overs from [agricultural material -> wood industry -> coal -> oil] provide some context. I wonder about the "holy grail of energy" (fusion), that is only 30 years away, and has been for perhaps 100 years. Modern "consensus science" (one of the greatest oxymorons) is still fighting with the enormous [temperatures, pressures] of [[magnetic, inertial] confinement, inertial impact], and they say that 2030 should see demo plant achievement of technical (rather than economic) economical targets. However, a range of [much smaller scale, innovative] fusion concepts might be where the real breakthroughs occur? I like the example of the [tiny, now-completed] SAFIRE project (among others), which was a very successful test of an experimental model of the Sun (believe it or not, driven in part for decades by concepts from mythology, albeit with very impressive government-only plasma science main work as well). Operating in a vacuum at "modest temperatures (5k+ Celsius?), with perhaps far less radio-active byproducts, it should at least be easily deployable from the perspectives of [capital, market building]. I wonder about [energy, power] densities, though. >> Not enough room for this : , for transportation markets. I am biased - I contributed "peanut-scale citizen donations" to the effort for several years now. But I have no investment (and not much money to invest either). In any case I think it is a private arrangement. I am certainly not very knowledgeable about the science either, although I have tracked it, and it's a lot of fun if nothing else! So are other alternative fusion ideas... +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-respected-market-timing-model-just-flashed-a-bullish-four-year-outlook-for-stocks-2020-04-24?mod=nextup_bomw This respected market-timing model just flashed a bullish four-year outlook for stocks Published: April 24, 2020 at 5:56 p.m. ET By Mark Hulbert The median U.S. stock will produce an annualized price-only gain of 6.0% over the next four years. With dividends, that’s equivalent to nearly 8% annualized. This cheerful forecast is produced by a market timing model that has an excellent track record predicting the market’s return over the subsequent four years. It is based on a single number that is printed each week in the Value Line Investment Survey. That number represents the median of the projections made by Value Line’s analysts of where the 1,700 widely-followed stocks they closely monitor will be trading in three- to five years’ time. Researchers who have analyzed its market timing potential call this number the VLMAP, which stands for Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential. They translate the number into a return forecast by searching for the formula that, when applied to the VLMAP, best fits the historical data. Value Line survey sees 8% annualized returns between now and April 2024 One such study appeared in the Journal of Wealth Management in 2013, co-authored by Daniel Seiver, a member of the economics faculty at Cal Poly State University and editor of an investment advisory service named The PAD System Report. Seiver reported that the VLMAP “has strong medium- and long-horizon stock-return forecasting ability.” (Full disclosure: Seiver’s newsletter is not one that utilizes my firm to audit its returns.) 200424 MarketWatch, www.HulbertRatings.com Value Line 4 year forecast.png &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Very interesting article, Mark Hulbert - thanks for bringing up Value Line as it's been a long time since I looked through their stuff. The results of Daniel Seiver etal are encouraging, and the VLMAP predictions versus results for 2012-2020 are absolutely stunning up to the current crash. I wonder what would happen if a 10 year time horizon was also included in the VLMAP, as that would be far enough out that one would seriously have to consider a crash during the interval. As with many areas in science, it's often not so difficult to forecast long periods without major changes of [state, phase] of a system. What is rare is to have any handle on predicting the timing of the change, and which of many [phases, states] will subsequently prevail (including, of course, the present one). I'm pretty old, so Value Line reminds me of the Farmer's Almanac. Everybody laughs at the Almanac, but comparisons to the catastrophic failures of essentially all modern climate models makes the Almanac look like a totally sure thing in comparison. +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-states-are-loosening-economic-shut-down-orders-texas-expected-to-announce-new-rules-soon-2020-04-23?mod=article_inline >> list of openings by state 200424 MarketWatch, US BurEconAnlys How much does each state contribute to US GDP.png These states are loosening economic shut-down orders; Texas expected to announce new rules soon Published: April 24, 2020 at 12:03 p.m. ET By Silvia Ascarelli States all have their own definition of ‘reopening’ Updated UofW IHME charts : UofW IHME corona deaths cumulative 200422 by 04Aug2020.png UofW IHME corona deaths per day 200422.png UofW IHME corona hospital resources 200422.png &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& FBrep to Yves Poirier I certainly don't know. My first guess is to simply follow the Uof Washington IHME team, as they update their USA model at least weekly (very low by mid-May to June). My second guess is that seasonal re-occurrences will occur as long as the seasonal flu continues (i.e., forever), and we'll either get used to it or go into two months self-isolation every year to avoid the [flu, corona] (yes, I do think we're that stupid). "Flattening the curve" also means "extending the curve", with big benefits in being able to apply limited medical resources, and it will be interesting to see if that shows by country policies. Sweden hasn't done the self-isolation, and while their curve is still rising, if it doesn't skyrocket that might be saying something. My ignorant guess is perhaps a 20%-40% savings in lives by self-isolation's improved medical access, with of course 100% exposure of populations to the virus over a not-so-long-term. Are we already at 30-70% exposure (at some point this is what drives the curves down)? Clearly, almost all of our protection is from our immune systems, but its bad news for the [old, weak] and those whose immune system key is in the hands of the virus. But I'm just guessing... http://www.billhowell.ca/Cool%20stuff/200407%20CDC%20influenza%20burden%20USA,%202010-2018.png Not posted : All that changes if the virus mutates to evil fast enough (record number of "galactic/cosmic ray days last summer/fall (magnetic Kp index on floor 24 hours), or if a [vaccine, wonder treatment] reduces the impact. Only now are some "experts" (none in Canada?) commenting that this is longer-term (remember : isolation of 2 weeks, then 1 month, then 1.5 months, ...). Few are commenting that it looks more and more like the seasonal flu (forever), with corona twists. I'm furious (as usual) at the [medical, science] experts and the media. Very bad [analysis, misinformation] on a familiar story several thousand years long. ********** 15Apr2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-45-days-are-the-most-critical-period-in-us-financial-history-says-stock-market-expert-who-profited-in-1987-and-2008-crises-2020-04-15?mod=newsviewer_click The next 45 days are the ‘most critical period in U.S. financial history,’ says stock-market expert who profited in 1987 and 2008 crises Published: April 15, 2020 at 11:38 p.m. ET By Mark DeCambre Alan B. Lancz - The contrarian money manager, who is a disciple of famed investor Sir John Templeton, said that the timing and execution of the reawakening of the U.S. economy from its dormancy could be one of the biggest factors in determining how the market recovers from COVID-19, which has forced swaths of businesses to shut down to help stem the spread of the deadly contagion that has infected more than 2 million people and claimed 137,000 lives, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University as of Wednesday evening. “Unfortunately, this crisis has all three parts of the past bear markets’ sell-offs,” he wrote. “This pandemic not only threatens America’s standard of living but also could position us as a secondary global power.” 200415 TradingView, PassiCoin, S&P500 1929vs2020- short/mid/long term Forecast. Conclusion- We are fucked.png &&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell - blog to TradingView "Fundamental St9ockMarket Analysis" https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/fundamental/ go to "Public Chats, fundamental stockmarket analysis" S&P 500 Shiller-forward PE versus 10y US Treasury bond rates - here is a very [primitive, amateur] model http://www.billhowell.ca/economics,%20markets/S&P%20500%20Shiller-forward%20PE%20versus%2010y%20US%20Treasury%20bond%20rates.jpg More details, and a link to a very simple spreadsheet, can be found at : http://www.billhowell.ca/economics,%20markets/S&P%20500%20Shiller-forward%20PE%20versus%2010y%20Treasury%20bond%20rates.html Image didn't show, try : http://www.billhowell.ca/SP500-Shiller-forward-PE-versus-10y-US-Treasury-bond-rates.jpg +-----+ Original text was too long : S&P 500 Shiller-forward PE versus 10y US Treasury bond rates Here is a very [primitive, amateur] model for estimating the relationship between the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury bond rates, by looking forward 20 years for earnings. Don't pay too much attention to the results. More important is just a "feel" for how parameters MIGHT affect results in a very rough sense, and getting a feel for what might done to improve the [concepts, model]. I am sure that much better thought out models canbe found in standard textbooks. More details, and a link to a very simple spreadsheet, can be found at : http://www.billhowell.ca/economics,%20markets/S&P%20500%20Shiller-forward%20PE%20versus%2010y%20Treasury%20bond%20rates.html Image posted : http://www.BillHowell.ca/economics, markets/S&P 500 Shiller-forward PE versus 10y US Treasury bond rates.jpg http://www.billhowell.ca/economics,%20markets/S&P%20500%20Shiller-forward%20PE%20versus%2010y%20US%20Treasury%20bond%20rates.jpg ********** 14Apr2020 Yardeni Research 23Mar2020 Stock Market Briefing, S&P 500 Bull & BearMarket Tables.pdf https://www.marketwatch.com/story/prepare-for-social-distancing-into-2022-warns-harvard-researchers-2020-04-15?mod=newsviewer_click The U.S. could be looking at social distancing measures into 2022, Harvard researchers warn Published: April 15, 2020 at 11:27 a.m. ET By Shawn Langlois &&&&&&&&&&&& Howell's blog : While waiting for a vaccine, a number of interim medical treatments are being applied, and new ones are being developed. As suggested by some, what we need now is to allow social mixing for the [COVID-cured, relatively immune], which should be a dominant majority of the population who don't develop serious hospitalizing symptoms. Self-isolation and quarantine for those who are at risk, not for everyone. What would really help here is a [test, certification] for those who are relatively resistant to the disease. They still may get quite sick, but not requiring hospitalisation. I don't know if such tests exist, but we really need them now! ********** 10Apr2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/is-the-economy-going-to-crash-because-of-coronavirus-how-quickly-will-the-economy-revive-51586560301?mod=newsviewer_click Here’s How Bad the Economy Will Get — and How Quickly It Could Revive By Randall W. Forsyth April 10, 2020 7:11 pm ET &&&&&&&&&&&&& Can't post - Barrons, Yes I can - just go to the Barron's site! William Howell - Assuming that this is a COVID-19-only hiccup, not a market fall [hastened, catalysed] by COVID-19, which was expected on a worse scale by a number of bears for a year or two. It's perhaps hard to assess value in near-zero interest rate environments, and you assume that they remain that way and import cash flows don't run after the rest of the world picks up. With huge [internal, non-[US, Europe] export markets, a vastly healthier debt situation, not-necessarily-more-fictitious [market, economic] numbers, and a still-impressive (albeit much reduced) growth, China might be looking more [stable, promising] to many until US [stability, growth] have proven staying power and attractive fundamentals. Bulls and bears, greed and fear, anchovies and pizza, life goes on... for some. +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-victim-of-covid-19-social-security-2020-04-10?mod=newsviewer_click Opinion: Another victim of COVID-19: Social Security Published: April 10, 2020 at 3:15 p.m. ET By Paul Brandus Long-term and short-term problems are looming And that something is already beginning to give. For the first time since 1982, Social Security is paying out more than it in taking in; by 2035—just 15 years from now—its cash reserve (the so-called “trust fund”) will be depleted. After that, the Social Trustees (the head Trustee is Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin) warns that Social Security will only “be sufficient to pay about three-quarters of scheduled benefits.” In other words: a 25% cut. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& William Howell - We need hyper-virtual-reality like [The Matrix, Total Recall, Ready Player One], where us old guys float in liquid chambers with minimal [capital, operating] cost: texting, watching perpetual reruns, exotic vacations, restaurants, living out our [powers, greatness]. Best thing is, none of us will even notice the change. One drawback, as stated in Ready Player One, "the only place to get a good meal is in the real world". They'll have to work on that, but it should be do-able virtually. http://frankfunds.com/media/Slaughterhouse%20Five%20(Hundred).pdf?mod=article_inline Alfred Frank 23Feb2020 "Slaughterhouse-Five (Hundred), Passive Investing and its Effects on the U.S. Stock Market" Frank 23Feb2020 Slaughterhouse-Five (Hundred), Passive Investing and its Effects on the U.S. Stock Market.pdf By: , President, Frank Capital Management LLC Brian J. Frank, CIO, Frank Capital Partners LLC First Printing: February 23, 2020Updated: April 3, 2020 200410 Brian Frank, MorningStar, Indexing on the rise, passive US funds could soon take over their active peers.png 200410 Brian Frank, BofA Merrill Lynch, Active vs passive equity flows since 2009.png 200410 Brian Frank, BofA Merrill Lynch, % stocks where Vanguard owns >5% of float.png 200410 Brian Frank, JP Morgan, 12M active outflows at record.png 200410 Brian Frank, co-movement on <25 bps moves in S&P.png 200410 Brian Frank, co-movement on 50-100 bps moves in S&P.png 200410 Brian Frank, historical co-movement for S&P 500 1928-2018, break-point when Vanguard discovers futures.png 200410 Brian Frank, [BEA, Haver alytics, DB], Household interest payments rising 15% yoy 1960-2001.png 200410 Brian Frank, S&P 500 price to sales ratio, 1990-2020.png >> Howell - buy shares not part of an index, with soid fundamentals!!?? Is that what Michael Burry is doing? How, which companies AREN"T on indexes? Alternatively - create own portfolio, which is more likely Burry's approach (Active management, not indexing). &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >> Howell - Brian Frank's paper - printed just before the Mar2020 crash Brian Frank - Your 23Feb2020, 48 page paper “Slaughterhouse-Five (Hundred)” (linked) is far more [general, interesting] than the millenial post alone. "... a profound shift in market share from active to passive management is the underlying cause ...[of]... extreme valuations in US stocks ... stock prices are being pushed higher by passive investment flows and by other market participants that buy stock without regard to the fundamental value of the businesses behind the stock prices. ... Names we followed began drifting above and away from our reasonable valuation targets in 2014 like a child losing their grip on a helium balloon. ... Passive strategies in aggregate have never seen annual outflows before, but since they now represent nearly half of all professionally managed money and roughly 20% of all major US stock ownership, this will inevitably occur. Therefore, a reversal of flows in passive will be devastating to US stock liquidity and result in an explosion of price volatility and instability. ..." You cite many authors, of which I only mention : - Is there a Dark Side to Exchange Traded Funds? An Information Perspective by Israeli, Lee, and Sridharan, January 13, 2017 "... when exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increase their ownership of a given company’s stock by just 1%, it makes the stock’s price 14% less correlated to its future earnings ..." Leave these out (I can't post everything) : "... a profound shift in market share from active to passive management is the underlying cause ...[of]... extreme valuations in US stocks ... stock prices are being pushed higher by passive investment flows and by other market participants that buy stock without regard to the fundamental value of the businesses behind the stock prices. ... stock prices of virtually all the 500 companies in the S&P 500 are not reflecting business fundamentals ... Should money exit passive strategies in the aggregate, the underlying unstable and dangerous system will be revealed as prices collapse to fundamental value. ... Evidence For Herding Behavior Caused By The Dominance Of Passive Investment Strategies ... It is difficult to measure the movement of different stocks relative to each other if stocks as a group do not move much at all. ... Names we followed began drifting above and away from our reasonable valuation targets in 2014 like a child losing their grip on a helium balloon. ... the expanding-valuation-party will continue only if passive consistently enjoys net inflows. ... Active has lost its voice in pricing US stocks. ... Passive strategies in aggregate have never seen annual outflows before, but since they now represent nearly half of all professionally managed money and roughly 20% of all major US stock ownership, this will inevitably occur. Therefore, a reversal of flows in passive will be devastating to US stock liquidity and result in an explosion of price volatility and instability. ..." - Mike Green "... has said his expertise is figuring out when people are forced to do irrational things in markets. ) ... active investors are hesitant to speak out because they do not want to call further attention to their subpar performance ... Green believes those who see problems are correct, and the issue is enormous for the future of the financial markets. ... unidirectional money flows into passive funds has caused stocks to act increasingly like a single herd of sheep, walking in unison ... explains how passive investing is like a very dumb computer program. It buys when clients deposit cash. It sells when clients withdraw cash. ..." - Robert Shiller, author of the seminal book on asset bubbles Irrational Exuberance "... Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, or CAPE reached 33 in January 2018 and is almost as high now, at 31. That number might seem meaningless in itself, but it is significant when you consider that it has been as high or higher on only two occasions: 1929, just before the 85 percent stock market crash ending in 1932, and in 1999, just before the 50 percent drop at the beginning of the new millennium. ..." - Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Privately Feared Indexing Would End In Tragedy "... universal indexing could be the new tragedy of the commons; 'If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe', Bogle said. ... - Horizon Kinetics [Steve Bregman, Murray Stahl] "... shares held by passive funds are not part of the float ... the supply of shares in the stock market is continuously restricted while demand is strong, making stock prices surge and awarding passive funds with exceptional performance, despite lackluster earnings growth in the US overall ... causes passive investors to buy more of the assets that are already expensive and less of the assets that are cheap ..." - Seth Klarman 1991 predicted, and Barron’s has pointed out, “... A self-reinforcing feedback loop has been created, where the success of indexing has bolstered the performance of the index itself, which, in turn promotes more indexing. ...” - Robert Shiller, author of the seminal book on asset bubbles Irrational Exuberance "... Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, or CAPE reached 33 in January 2018 and is almost as high now, at 31. That number might seem meaningless in itself, but it is significant when you consider that it has been as high or higher on only two occasions: 1929, just before the 85 percent stock market crash ending in 1932, and in 1999, just before the 50 percent drop at the beginning of the new millennium. ..." >> Howell, separate blog post : Questions : - Will Vangard and other ETFs be forced to drive fundamental analysis via [contractors, consultants], sooner rather than later? Free-loading off experts is a great idea until you've killed them all off? - Will active [intervention, management] by [ETFs, pension funds, raiders] be REQUIRED soon, if not sooner? - will investors start looking for "free by perceptions" [university, government] cart [advice, analysis]? After all, althey generate the data and already do an enormous amount of analysis, and they won't conceivably disappear tommorrow. They are, however politically-correct, from one region of multi-dimensional political space, and don't have any skin in the game (pensions [rich, guaranteed], etc, etc - I know, I'm one of them, retired). - are government policies (reacting to popular voting and nice-guy objectives) creating a perpetual current of excess financial stimulus fueling "permanent investment [inflation, over-valuations]" (versus [PI, PPI])? (this is addressed by you and [Israeli, Lee, Sridharan]. In line with your paper, I've long wondered : 1) what happens when nobody is looking closely at the individual corporate numbers, nobody is thinking? 2) technical trading seems to me to be a necessary COMPLEMENT to fundamental analysis, as valuations must be adjusted real-time when solid fundamental information is not available on anything like that time-scale, and is "rear-view mirror". I've felt the same way as Kolanovic (in your paper), fundamental analysts do only 10% of trading volume. Worse - I suspect the same problems that are prevalent modern [government, academic] science - very few traders have the [skills, mindset] to challenge their own orthodoxies, and 3) politically-correct (PC) massive mis-allocation of economic resources - It's one thing to talk about investment [analysis, approaches, strategies, results], but completely another to address the issue of financial asset [prioritization, allocation], which is a key function of markets. Has social engineeering, through [regulations, taxes, interventions, propping-up] led not only to : a) government propping of PC [technologies, hiring, businness practices] b) propping-up most importantly those [businesses, business leaders, investors] that, market-wise, "should be killed off". Instead, they are co-evolving with the system that nurtures them, leaving traditional [businesses, leaders] as suckers providing the taxes to encourage losers. d) discredited, to some extent, a key mechanism that USED TO distinguish us from the Socialist nations. Perhaps soon they will beat us even at this game, while retaining political systems that are best-suited for dealing with people with socialist mindsets (now approaching a majority of US voters?)? I typically assume that I am asking stupid questions in a vacuum, so it is nice to see hints that I may not be the only crazy person on Earth. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&& second MyBlog Patrick Durkin - *Real live Millennial speaking here* I know my entire generation is blamed for the demise of the world and everyone's problems and eating avocado toast. Here's one take - my pregnant wife is laid off, I sell real estate in Las Vegas (currently 40% unemployment) and we aren't freaking out because we both worked our tails off to pay off all debt, save up 6 months worth of expenses, and we are continuing to fund retirement (hell of a lot more than most Boomers can say about themselves). Unpopular opinion: Instead of blaming the generation that was raised by Boomers (monkey see...monkey do) who were also responsible for 2 of the last 3 recessions...maybe take this time to look inward. I'm 31 years old, this is the third recession I've lived through. Boomers - use this time to address your fear that you mask with "I'm never quitting, I love working" (BS) and throw in the damn towel already and retire so my generation has a fighting chance to increase the workforce and boost the economy. I know most won't, that's okay, I'll continue to put them out of business by doing it better! Cheers! Idaho Native - You're in the very small percentage of "do it ourselves" millennial subgroup that I have a lot of respect for (you're almost like many Gen-X!). Same people are filling classes on hunting, fishing, cooking, gardening, etc. However... asking for artificial forced retirement instead puts more tax burden on you, so don't ask for it. If you want the job then earn it. William Howell - You are letting us boomers off lightly. Cashing in on reverse mortgages to party and vacation? Where are the inheritances going? Maybe now you don't have to feel bad if the pensions are trashed... Patrick Durkin - Lol, what is a pension? +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-federal-reserves-emergency-lending-has-peaked-at-least-for-now-51586525260?mod=newsviewer_click The Federal Reserve’s Emergency Lending Has Peaked. At Least for Now. Published: April 10, 2020 at 9:27 a.m. ET By Matthew C. Klein &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Actually, I can't post to Barron's I did NOT post these blog (no need for cynicism, trivial reactions) : I'm not trying to be cynical at all, it's just beyond my comfort level as understanding. So it's reasonable to expect continued Fed injections for another 3 years? more? Is a [mortgage, rent] overhang, still lingering from 2008, contributing to the current situation? Can we expect this to recur approximately every ten years from 2008? (not corona virus - I am confident that a new reason can be found each time). Are near-zero interest rates, massive bailouts, and routine social engineering of the financial markets blinding us of underlying realities? Are the markets no longer "real", not longer reasonable indicators to go by? If domestic [investors, lenders] don't care about the borrower's state, aren't at least the foreign creditors getting nervous? How much does financial asset inflation (vs [CPI, PPI]) have to do with the march of rising GDP since 2010? &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Thanks for the update. It will be really interesting to see this comparison between 2008 and 2020 over the next 3 years, and how the overall approach will evolve after one or two more crashes. ********** 09Apr2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-ways-to-get-a-coronavirus-skeptic-to-take-the-pandemic-seriously-anecdotes-are-much-more-convincing-than-statistics-2020-04-08?mod=newsviewer_click 10 ways to get a coronavirus skeptic to take the pandemic seriously: ‘Anecdotes are much more convincing than statistics’ Published: April 9, 2020 at 9:52 p.m. ET By Meera Jagannathan What if someone in your life is part of the small sliver of the population that isn’t taking the threat of the pandemic seriously? &&&&&&&&&&&& David Clay - Yeah, ignore those pesky statistics and focus on fear and emotion. Here are some actual numbers. 0.000195 of the world's population has this "pandemic." Dr. Anthony "Big Pharma" Fauci now predicts 60,000 deaths in US, down from his crazed two million number. 80,000 people died from the flu during the 2017-18 season. No shutdown for that. North and South Dakota had no shutdown. They have about 10 deaths total. Why weren't they wiped out? Calls to suicide hotlines are up 2500%. Benjamin Franklin - Very well said Howell - Yes - From what I see, it is the anecdotal (and emotional) thinkers who tend to see the end of the world, and who are only too happy to clamp down on others. But giving anecdotal tools to anecdotal thinkers probably does make sense, and in any case they're probably used to the rolling of the eyes of the beneficiaries of their lectures. In the end, it's probably belief systems and fears (for some), and hard-nosed "here we go again" (for others) that have a heavy influence on our reactions, not so much supposed analysis. So on with the thundering herd.... ********** 07Apr2020 My MarketWatch blog https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-governor-looks-to-antibody-testing-as-a-potential-means-to-get-people-back-to-work-2020-04-07?mod=newsviewer_click New York governor looks to antibody testing as a potential means to get people back to work Published: April 7, 2020 at 6:59 p.m. ET By Beckie Strum As early indications show a possible plateauing of coronavirus cases in New York, state leaders are looking at how to return to some sort of normalcy &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell - Interesting - something that I've been waiting to see : that people who have had the disease (or exposed and resistant) are good to go, but others will be at risk for the duration of this epidemic or its resurgence (possibly mutated) until a vaccine comes out (1-2 years?). Do they get a certification of [resistance, non-transmit-ability]? Will they be hot items on a reviving job market (probably NOT - as the vast majority of people will fall into that category once exposed)? The winds may be changing due to the efforts of a few, and Gov. Andrew Cuomo seems to be following carefully and adapting well. harry stratton - They would be resistant to re -infection (symptoms) but an A-symptomatic person can still pick up and carry the virus , wherever, for 14-29 days Howell - Harry, are you comfortable with the "instant disappearance, non-contagion" of diseases, for one who has developed immunity? This seems to ban implicity assumption in thys the news and expertise is provided. I am NOT knowledgeable about [virus, bacteria, microbe, parasite] diseases, but the mere re-occurence of diseases in [original, different life-stage, mutated] forms after [seasons, years, decades], seem to leave a huge gap in the concept, apart from assuming that it was carried off elsewhere or exists in some localised bio-reservoir (which is fine, but I'm looking for more). Malaria (parasite?), Herpes, HIV, and pretty well all of the big pandemics like [cholera, influenza, smallpox], and many I don't remember, continue on. So do the bacteria, viruses in your digestive system etc. "Shazam, the virus is gone" isn't being claimed by anybody, but that impression kind of stuck with me from the news coverage. John G - Which would tell you that the number of actual cases is in the million already Howell -Likely, isofar as "actually exposed" but not in the reported (confirmed) cases, as per https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html For the 2017-2018 seasonal flu, IHME estimates were ~45 M illnesses, which doesn't include "exposed but not ill enough to care or notice". Just taking 3 k deaths so far in the US, adding by 61 k $ flu deaths in 2017-2018, and multiplying by 45 M gives you complete nonsense (I admit), but its a big number. IHME projects 82 k deaths in the USA by 04Aug2020, so both by the IHME model projection, and by comparisons to 2017-18 seasonal flu, we have a long way to go yet, and millions are already touched by it. +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-short-investor-who-made-a-killing-during-the-financial-crisis-the-economic-shutdown-is-worse-than-the-coronavirus-2020-04-07?mod=newsviewer_click ‘Big Short’ investor says the shutdown is worse than the coronavirus: ‘It bleeds deep anguish and suicide’ Published: April 7, 2020 at 4:35 p.m. ET By Shawn Langlois ... He offered more detail in his emails this week to Bloomberg News as to why he would immediately lift stay-at-home orders for everybody but high-risk groups. “I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it,” he wrote. “This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.” Meanwhile, the COVID-19 tally keeps rising in the U.S., home to the most confirmed cases at almost 400,000, with 11,851 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. Globally, here are now 1.39 million cases and 79,091 deaths. Another 292,973 people have recovered. >> Awesome, tuys (Trump and him) make sense! &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Howell - It's great to see someone stand out and question the current orthodoxy. It will be interesting to see what % of COVID-19 serious cases are saved by "flattening the curve" (eg reducing peak (shock) demands on hospital resources to reduce triaging and effects on other patients). Will this just end up as an exceptionally bad flu season? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html Nabil Istafananus - The problem with this reasoning is you can't prove the counterfactual. It is absolutely clear, this virus left unabated and no vaccines is more than 10 times more deadly than the flu. After we open up the economy in 60 days, these same folks will say, see, this was only as bad as the flu and they won't believe that social distancing actually saved millions of lives. We can't prove it. I trust the infectious disease experts and the massive mobilization of our scientists for effective treatment will be enough to open things up gradually. Folks who are saying opening up the economy without a strong testing and proven treatments are short-term thinkers and simply protecting their porfolios. The stock market will come back. Take a deep breath and calm down folks. We're in this together and I trust that we will not be locked down forever. Howell - Nabil Istafananus - Thanks, and I agree with your comments. Believe me, I am not looking for "proofs", nor could I expect that. But I am hoping to see a range of estimates over time based on diverse approaches (what I call "multiple conflicting hypothesis") that are transparent and available (subject to privacy constraints etc, in the health area, of course). At the end of the day, lessons learned and comparisons to past pandemics are not just inevitable, but part of the process of improving (we hope). Others will not have our perspective, nor do we have theirs, which is normal. +-----+ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html Burden of influenza CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Hopefully the COVID-19 situation will have improved by at least the middle of August so that fans can get back into their normal baseball stadiums? If the COVID-19 deaths end up at ~85 k (thousand), this is like an exceptionally bad flu season! Nobody was sure how this would turn out, but China had already shown the way and something of what could be expected. Very different context, though, given the very tough measures taken in China, and they seem to have been ready for this (thanks to SARS etc?). However, if deaths turn out to be 250 k or 1 M (million), then it is in a somewhat different class, perhaps like the Spanish flu. Estimates of death and disruption to lives because of the economic impacts of self-isolation and business shutdowns are important, as we don't do that for seasonal flu, and COVID-19 sets a precedent. A rule of thumb of 40,000 deaths per 1% increase in unmployment appeared in the film "The Big Short", and apparently is used in some economics classes, but it seems that is a guess in the dark, and I think it's crazy to extrapolate that to 20-25% unemployment. By now, I think that everyone realizes how serious the impacts are of "social distancing" as currently applied, but also how important that has been to allow the health care system to cope. Thank goodness for the ventilators that were on hand, and kudos to medical personnel on the front lines. http://www.billhowell.ca/Pandemics,%20health,%20and%20the%20Sun/200407%20CDC%20influenza%20burden%20USA,%202010-2018.png https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html ********** 06Apr2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-new-york-flattens-and-hospitalizations-fall-suggesting-social-distancing-is-working-2020-04-06?mod=newsviewer_click Number of coronavirus deaths in New York flattens and hospitalizations fall, suggesting social distancing is working Published: April 6, 2020 at 7:17 p.m. ET By Liz Lucking Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned against making a ‘mistake’ of overconfidence and thinking the crisis is nearly over &&&&&&&&&&&&&& My questions : If the curve is flattening, could that mean one or more of the following : - the disease has already spread to much of the population (most seem to be resistant?), so cases will soon decline as happened in China? - the same cumulative number of people will have been infected by the end of the pandemic (not counting further waves that would be normal) as without social distancing, but spread out much more (it's not clear how the models handle that)? - by flattening the curve, is there some report on the "extra lives saved" due to lower demands on the medical systems and therefore the ability to care for patients has avoided much of the "triaging" that has happended in some [region,country]s? An IHME web-page mentionned something about a 20% reduction but it's not clear what theat really meant. I've lost track of the web-page,t a link to IMHE is : https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - are [special, new] medical treatments helping a great deal (beyond the ventilators, and great medical care), given that we do not yet have a vaccine? Left out : Perhaps that is hardly possible anymore - almost everything is taken in a political context even when politics may be irrelevant to the [subject, many people who are involved] (or perhaps I am alone?). ********** 02Apr2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-the-deepest-recession-on-record-says-bofa-analysts-as-jobless-claims-surge-to-66-million-2020-04-02?mod=mw_latestnews Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA analysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million Published: April 2, 2020 at 4:21 p.m. ET By Mark DeCambre BofA economists forecast that the unemployment rate will soon hit 15.6% from 3.5% as of February To that end, BofA sees between 16 and 20 million job losses, which could send the unemployment rate, which stands at 3.5% as of February’s report, surging within a few months to 15.6%, which would by far outstrip the unemployment rate during the 2007-09 recession. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&& My reply to a blogger : harry stratton : The large spread of covid19 is that it is a completely new strain of SARS . NO ONE had any latent immunity from previous contact / infection . Most persons that have been infected ,and survive will have a degree of immunity to reinfection . It is safe to say when the testing shows a leveling/decline in spread ALL of the population will mirror that, whether tested or not . The VACCINE is needed not so much for this go around but for the next encounter with the covid19 mutation that is certain to happen , just like every virus , flue or whatever , this virus is certain to do. Bill Howell - Good point, harry. The CDC website explains that for the 2003 SARS-CoV epidemic , Tom Simmons - It mutates slowly and only in small increments. The vaccine will be effective for this encounter. Because it changes slowly, a second vaccine should be ready in advance of any future outbreak. ********** 01Apr2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-getting-dangerously-close-to-the-mother-of-support-zones-2020-04-01?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore Opinion: The stock market is getting dangerously close to the ‘mother of support zones’ Published: April 1, 2020 at 10:28 a.m. ET By Nigam Arora Watch key stocks including Apple and Nvidia to determine whether investors are holding on or giving up mother of support zones - 2015-16 bottom https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-money-is-flowing-into-alibaba-amazon-intel-and-microsoft-2020-03-25?mod=article_inline Opinion: Bullish investors pour money into Alibaba, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft Published: March 25, 2020 at 4:45 p.m. ET By Nigam Arora That’s what professional investors are buying. Momentum chasers are purchasing Apple, AMD, Netflix and Tesla Alibaba is the 'most interesting' among a group of 11 stocks of large technology companies. ?source? The Federal Reserve, President Trump and Congress have come up with $6 trillion in stimulus and relief programs to help the economy. &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 01Apr2020 My comment - posted 02Apr2020 MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-the-deepest-recession-on-record-says-bofa-analysts-as-jobless-claims-surge-to-66-million-2020-04-02?mod=mw_latestnews COVID-19 "Peak versus Area of the pandemic curve"? To what extent does the AREA under the pandemic curve area remain the same until effective vaccines are developed? In other words, does "flattening the curve" result in much the same [number, % of population] of infected people as simply letting the pandemic spread? : - On the plus side, by spreading out the disease over time, there could be a huge reduction of the peak loads on the medical system, plus there is more time to build up people, resources] to tackle the problem. That, plus other factors, might significantly reduce [severe cases, deaths], but : what % reduction under what scenarios? - On the minus side, widespread shut-downs damage people's work, businesses, finances, i.e. the economy in general. An oft-cited number is that 40,000 US citizens die for every % increase in unemployment. I don't trust that number, but the politically-correct use it to push their agenda, so now it can be used with confidence where they don't like it (not by their reasoning, of course). Several economists have forecast 20-25% unemployment with COVID-19, plus a risk of major recession. Is there any validity in any of the numbers below for projected deaths in the USA ? : - 800,000 from recession (@ 40,000 deaths per % unemployment increase) - 250,000 from COVID-19 (Donald Trump ~31Mar2020, project to the end of April?) -10,000,000 from COVID-19 (a friend's guess - you can do this too) A very nice amateur analysis, and the only quantitative model that I've seen in the net so far, was Posted on February 26, 2020 by Chris Stelter at : https://selenianboondocks.com/2020/02/modeling-covid-19-when-will-the-peak-occur-in-the-us/ Chris states "... the usual logistical model (which I think turns out to be the wrong model for a virus… but let’s just run with it for now) the usual logistical model (which I think turns out to be the wrong model for a virus… but let’s just run with it for now) ...". - Will the highly infectious stage attenuate naturally, for example with the seasons? (influenza and ebola come to mind) - If the disease attenuates naturally will it simple re-surge shortly thereafter? As overly simplistic, alternative assumptions : - Do nothing - In other words, the same amount of [severe sickness, death], but spread over more or less time. - Middle of the road - self-isolation and other measures until the (very much reduced) rate of new infections stabilises at a But the benefits in providing a much better medical care for severe cases could dramatically reduce the number of deaths, understanding that this is a much lower fraction of the populationj that reporting suggests (perhaps 0.8 to 2%)? - Shut down the economy, and take the hit - the curve is "decaptitated" at the level afforded by [self-isolation, busines shutdowns] for a period of time that is only a small multiple (say 1.5 to 6 times) of the "do nothing" scenario. This seems to be the current assumption. But is it reasonable? I have no idea of which [scenarios, assumptions] are more likely. I'm sure that there are [health, science] professionals who have solid opinions about that, but they are dwarfed by dwarfed by a vast majority that don't. It's probably somewhere in papers and analysis, but is not profiled in the media. Maybe China, with so much [historical, recent] experience with [epidemics, pandemics] made hard decisions early, haken the hit that they deemed necessary, and now are getting on with life, cautiously. "Peak versus Area of the pandemic curve" - Is this issue yet another great [omission, deception] by our con-scientists? Is nobody awake in the mass media (again)? First, the public is led to believe that a two- period of self-isolation will do the trick, then a month, then a month and a half, and currently, so late in game, at least one or two journalists (Financial Post in Canada was the first that heard) pull out internal government documents suggesting a "best case cenario of July". But NO mention in the media of the worst case or median scenarios? Cut : Historically, people have always tried to hide from pandemics, with limited success (but critically important for those who saved themselves). There are occasional mentions that we aren't really "safe" (like influenza safe) until vaccines are developed for the different corona variants, plus the ability to rapidly adapt vaccines for new [variants, mutations] that can be expected over the next few decades with recurrences. I know nothing about infectious diseases, but over the decades even a simpleton like myself learns to smell out a rat, to spot the King with no clothes in the area of science. I'm used to this, mostly in the areas of [fundamental theoretical physics, astronomy, geology, history, computational intelligence...]. I am somewhat blind to this in my hobby focus area of Computational Intelligence. CI is the epicenter of many of the critical excitement, not Artificial Intelligence (AI), the much older conceptual basis for "machine intelligence", although the [old-timer AI experts, media] have succeeded in "saran wrapping" concepts together to ensure continuity of support (actually, more from misunderstanding). Even many, if not most, CI experts use the AI term now. Unfortunately, that hides the very significant differences in the concepts, and leaves the public blind to the nature of the technology (unless they do their homework, sifting through mountains of misleading material). Pandemic checklist (horribly incomplete, omitting what is commonly said in the media) : - pandemics often have recurred in waves over decades - while the very [old, young] are often the most susceptible, really bad [epidemics, pandemics] are less discriminating (not so much COVID-19, by appearances) - while I don't trust any analysis fully, there seems to be stronger correlations of [disease, astronomy] than with many of the "controlable [social, helath] variables". Many aspects of solar activity have been pointed out for a very long time (perhaps even centuries?). ********** 31Mar2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/coronavirus-vaccine-update-when-will-a-covid-19-vaccine-be-ready-51585587652?mod=newsviewer_click When Will a Coronavirus Vaccine be Ready? These 9 Programs Are Making Progress. Last Updated: March 30, 2020 at 2:05 p.m. ET First Published: March 30, 2020 at 1:02 p.m. ET By Josh Nathan-Kazis My attempted blog (couldn't post) &&&&&&&&&& Wow! We're lucky, as this is a perfect time to [apply, test, screen, prove] more advanced science. Have I missed something? Because I haven't noticed any recent media news about armies of protesters (like the anti-GMO types) trying to stop good men from trying to build great businesses by providing awesome [goods, services, capabilities]. Am I delusional - maybe like war, COVID-19 will provide a platform for launching into new technologies quickly? Of course, safety first, just less obstacle courses to bleed the doers? Of course, there are risks, but perhaps the context puts them into perspective for once? ********* 30Mar2020 +-----+ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-why-the-us-spread-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-italy-2020-03-30?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore 5 reasons why the U.S. spread of COVID-19 could be worse than Italy Published: March 30, 2020 at 3:24 p.m. ET By Tomi Kilgore Infection growth likely to start slowing late-April before ‘second wave’ hits central U.S. cities; social distancing timeline likely to be pushed past April 30, Morgan Stanley says &&&&&&&& My comment : Without the availability of several vaccines for different corona virus variants (current and possibly new), won't the curve just shoot up again when self-isolation is reduced? Many thought (still think) that a "two week to a month to 2 month" period of self isolation would somehow "solve" the problem. But what if it's more like six months to a year? There seems to be something wrong with the expectations that have been built up in the public, and the [self-righteous, politically-correct] aren't saying what they propose to do at much higher levels of serious infections - the tough decisions that follow. China may have done that, and may have made tough decisions early. They might also have long been more resistant to such viruses? "Flattening the curve" is an understandable objective, from the point of view of reducing the load on the medical facilities and personnel, providing time for the build-up of capabilities to deal with it, and giving time for "moderation [medicine, treatments]" that doesn't cure but at least reduces the impact of serious cases. Perhaps the [media, medical experts] refrain from revealing detailed projections out of fear that they might be wrong (sued), but at present some of the best analysis I've seen is by complete amateurs who at least provided their [models, assumptions, historical] comparisons, and discussed the scenarios and implications quantitatively. This also seems to be the case right across different areas of science. 31Mar2020 blog response, my comment Jons Ax : If people really "self" isolate with only a few family members, at the end of two weeks they will either have COVID-19 or be virus free. Testing can determine who should be allowed to go out. Unfortunately people still go out and don't keep proper distances and nor do proper cleaning so some will still have SARS-CoV-2 in their bodies. A factory that ships it's products could become a self contained unit with raw materials let set for 5 days before being used in manufacturing and then having the product loaded with no human to human interaction. Of course this would take the workers living on the premises for a while. I would think that some workers would think a temporary condition like that would be OK if they could get back to work and start making money again. After all, people deal with family members going on business trips and families deal with military members being deployed. My reply : Jons Ax - Thanks for your comment. I wonder, though, if [viruses, bacteria, microbes] survive for a long time in a dormant phase for [weeks, months, years], rather than simply being 100% eliminated by the bodies defenses? The common cold (some types of corona virus are involved, along with other pathogens?) might not be a good example, as it always seems to be active, although it has seasons of [high, low] prevalence. It seems that malaria (from what I've read, and my father's case) recurs on a ~7 year basis or something like that after the initial hit, albeit in milder forms? Herpes , if I remember correctly, is something like that too, although I have no idea of periodicity. Some kinds of skin diseases as well ([shackles, psoriasis])? Transmission is a different matter, though, and that seems to have "contagious periods" in individuals, but I have no idea of the details. JonsAx : Hi William. Malaria is a parasite protozoan that is good at hiding in the liver in a dormant stage and becomes active once in a while. Some bacteria can produce spores that are very hardy and long living but they stretch the definition of living in the spore state. The specific mechanism to go from spore to bacteria again in the right environment is not well known. Herpes hides in neural ganglia to avoid detection during a latent stage. On the other hand, the corona virus that is common cold survives by continuing to infect people and genetically changing enough that body defenses usually don't wipe it out before it has been passed on. In fact, I joke that you don't start getting better with a cold until you have solidly passed it on to someone else. SARS-CoV-2 is not a particularly hardy virus but it is good at infecting others who get too close to an infected person or get the virus from a surface that it is on. MY eply : Thanks, Jons Ax! # enddoc