#] #] ********************* #] "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' www.BillHowell.ca 24Feb2021 initial To view this file - use a text editor (not word processor) constant width font (eg courrier 10), tab - 3 spaces 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour India - Bombay Sensex index - Harry Dent "the strongest stock index in Asia" iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] 12May2022 -> also watches JM Hurst (time-period fractal of 2* : like Puetz DUWS) Dent's 4 main world economy cycles : 10y - decennial, 25y - demographic, 35y - geopolitical, 45y - technology Insightful analysts : Miguel Cole, Puerto Rico Lacy Hunt - first economist to explain money velocity to Dent, speaks at Dent conferences Randy Kuntz, with Raymond James Naiomi Sen Martin, Australia Andrew Pancholi - Market Timing Report, awesome timing! Doug Robinson, his own financial advisor firm Robinson Capital Management Peter Schiff (gold bug) good commentary John Del Vecchio, professional investor 48************************************************48 24************************24 # Table of Contents : # $ grep "^#]" "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' | sed 's/^#\]/ /' ********************* "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour ??Apr2022 ??Apr2022 12Apr2023 Dent's 20$US webinar rant "The market crash around the corner" 21Sep2022 Harry's Take: Mega Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 06Jun2022 ls -1 "$d_web""'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/' 02Sep2021 catchup Rodney's Take 9-1-21 The Chinese Play the Long Game Harry's Take 8-31-21 Reader Mailbag Rodney's Take 8-25-21 When No One Knows the Ending 19May2021 Rodney's take 25Apr2021 Rodney's Take 25Apr2021 Dent rant 07Apr2021 Rodney Johnson semiconductor mfrs - 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko second-in-a-week presentation (Greg Owen) 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko presentation (Greg Owen) 24Feb2021 The Gold Price War LIVE Debate 19Nov2020 CONFIRMATION: Dent vs Schiff Debate [ACCESS LINK] 20Oct2020 Harry's Take: The Coming Civil War in America: Do We Split Into 2 or 3 Countries? 14Nov2020 Harry Dent: [U.S., world] economies over the next [12 months, 5 years, decade] 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] 16Jun2020 Harry's Take June 16,2020, Zombe companies 15Jun2020 Harry Dent newsletter 24************************24 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] ??Apr2023 +-----+ #] 12Apr2023 Dent's 20$US webinar rant "The market crash around the corner" https://hsdent.com/the-market-crash-around-the-corner-replay/?inf_contact_key=a69235465348b18e4b3bc8fb53db2ce7680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1 replay of webinar rant George Gilbert (Guilder?) - failure is reason for success of free-market capitalism >> one of Harry Dent's favourite economists Carter Work? CNC good technical analyst >> Harry Dent likes SQQQ triple short NASDAQ, major buy at 28-30$/shr? 43:?? list of shorts crypto 56:44 Reserve currency duration by nation 1400-present, US loses now or by2040 57:54 Tipping point: Central bank recession prevention policies finally fail? +-----+ #] 21Sep2022 Harry's Take: Mega Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 Mega Behind-the-Scenes Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 scary graph : /home/bill/SG6/web/Cool stuff/220921 Dent - Velocity of money crashes since stock and real estate bubbles began sell my house? +-----+ #] 06Jun2022 ls -1 "$d_web""'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/' Dent 220601 Normal-valuation housing markets increay rare, mostly in upper midWest.png Dent 220601 Zombie companies cant pay debt service - tripled to 24% since 2017 Dent 220601 Likely home-price peak near $452k, sahrpest spike ever since covid Dent 220601 Contrary to perceptions, new home sales have fallen rapidly sinceAug2020 Dent 220601 after extreme lows in late 2020, housing months supply exploding back up Dent 220601 S&P500 top and crash scenario likely into late 2023 - 5-wave pattern 08********08 #] 02Sep2021 catchup +-----+ #] Rodney's Take 9-1-21 The Chinese Play the Long Game Zhou Bo, a senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army from 2003 to 2020, wrote in The New York Times: “With the U.S. withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment. “Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building—areas in which China’s capabilities are arguably unmatched—and access to $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.” Those are interesting word choices. The Chinese "can offer" “political impartiality” sounds a lot like, “We don’t care how you treat your people or rule your nation.” The Chinese appear to be offering assistance in building infrastructure in exchange for unfettered access to mineral deposits that have eluded private companies and public initiatives for years. +-----+ #] Harry's Take 8-31-21 Reader Mailbag Q: You always recommend long-term Treasuries as great investments that have good appreciation during the down cycle, and you reference the 1930s. But the level of national debt then was so much lower than the present $30 trillion plus. Isn’t the dollar vulnerable to devaluation risk, and won’t the results of this devaluation hurt the value of Treasury holdings? A: I have to keep stressing that this debt bubble is global. The U.S. has trailed in its government debt–to-GDP ratio; in comparison, the ratios for Europe are substantially higher and the ratio for Japan is off the charts. Hence, although the borrowing binge for the U.S. is the most extreme in its history, our dollar has not gone down and even has appreciated relative to our main trading partners, as they are getting into even more debt and leverage. In the downturn that is now imminent, the U.S. dollar actually is likely to spike into the worst of the crisis, as it did in mid-to-late 2008—because we are seen as the best safe-haven country due to our size and world dominance and our relatively lower debt levels. Currencies don't have absolute values like stocks and bonds, they trade relative to each other. U.S. T-bonds were clearly the best safe haven asset—way better than gold—in 2008, and they will be again, but even more so this time, given that this time, the downturn will be deeper and include much more debt deleveraging. Rodney's Take 8-30-21 Political Powell Gave Investors a Pass The Fed’s easy monetary policy is supposed to generate more economic activity by making loans cheaper and therefore encouraging borrowing. It’s not happening. Bank loans sit about where they were before the pandemic, even though bank deposits have increased by trillions of dollars. The extra funds sit at the Fed in the form of excess reserves, doing nothing but clogging the financial system. Without more lending, the bond buying won’t create more jobs, but the extra dollars do have an effect somewhere else: they inflate financial asset prices. Q: Why did the stock market recover to new record highs from the 2020 stock market crash from Feb 20, 2020, to Apr 7, 2020? If ever there was a trigger for the next depression, then it would have been the COVID crisis. Since the virus failed to set deflation into motion, what event in the next few weeks possibly could? A: The Fed and the government saw how deep the economic contraction would be—a short depression—and they quickly came out with a combined $9 trillion combo of monetary and fiscal stimulus, totaling 42% of GDP! That's why the stock market instantly jumped to a new high, even though the economy is still well below pre-COVID levels of GDP and unemployment. The stock market has had less to do with the economy since massive QE started in late 2008, and now it is totally divorced from it. The problem now is that when stocks start to crash again and the economy starts to weaken again, what are they going to do next, print and borrow 100% of GDP? There is a point of both diminishing returns on exponentially expanding stimulus and a loss of credibility from doing the same thing and expecting a different response... like anticipating a sustainable recovery without ever more stimulus. At that point, stocks will go down no matter how much money they print. This is a simple go-until-the-bubble-blows strategy, and I think we are in the final days, weeks, or months of it at most, as Jeremy Grantham said recently. It’s better to get out a bit early than too late at this point. +---+ #] Rodney's Take 8-25-21 When No One Knows the Ending Unemployment has fallen dramatically since last summer. We now have more job openings that unemployed workers. I don’t have a strong conviction as to what will happen. I think Powell will discuss tapering bond purchases sometime this fall, but only if the economy remains on track. He won’t define what that means, so as to give the bankers wiggle room. Inflation will remain elevated, as rent, food, and energy prices move higher, but then GDP growth will stall. The Fed will push bond-purchase tapering out a bit farther, which will give equities and bonds a boost while denting the dollar Or, it could all be the opposite—and that’s the problem. By intervening so often over the past 13 years, the Fed has removed any sense of market-based price discovery. We’re more comfortable with a future that includes central bank intervention than with one that doesn’t, which is a scary prospect that seems destined to end badly. 08********08 #] 19May2021 Rodney's take The Federal Reserve’s Inequality Machine In the May Rodney Johnson Report, I explained how the Fed is fostering inflation as it pursues a narrow but laudable employment goal, reducing black unemployment. As the Fed holds down interest rates and continues to purchase $120 billion worth of bonds each month, it is adding economic fuel to a fire that’s already raging because of the trillions of dollars in federal relief spending flowing through the system. The result will be the same as it has been since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), one of the things the Fed claims it wants to diminish, inequality. ... By holding interest rates near record lows for more than a decade, with just a brief interlude of rising rates in the mid-2010s, the Fed has driven equity markets higher, rewarding existing equity investors and those who receive shares as compensation. It seems unlikely that the Fed sets out to make rich people richer or to increase the wealth gap between those who own equities and those who do not, but their main tools do exactly that. By increasing the money supply and keeping rates low to encourage growth, the Fed drives investors into riskier assets and tilts valuation models toward equities, padding the pockets of people with accumulated wealth along the way. This is not a complaint. I was lucky enough to do well before 2008, so we’ve been riding this equity wave and enjoying falling interest rates for more than a decade. And I’m not interested in giving any government entity (including the Fed) more tools to use for wealth redistribution. I’m just pointing out that the central bank is ill-equipped to pursue one of the main goals that the bankers often discuss in public. To make it worse, they’re now wading into climate change! If the Fed begins rating banks on their “exposure” to companies with climate risk, the bankers will move from generally favoring some groups over others to explicitly picking winners and losers. That’s no way to manage a currency or work toward moderate prices and full employment. >> Great insight! 08********08 18May2021 +-----+ 210515 Rodney Johnson Report The Fed's Mandate The Federal Reserve Bank was created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The Fed was tasked with maintaining U.S. currency by ensuring moderate price changes and moderate interest rates. The bankers were charged with taming the business cycle by keeping the value of the U.S. dollar steady. It was an impossible job, made worse by political decisions, wars, and actions by other countries, so Congress did the only thing politicians know how to do: they made it worse. In the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 (the Humphrey-Hawkins Act), Congress added full employment to the Fed’s to-do list. Congress had been legislatively impotent in its efforts to cure the malaise of the 1970s, so it punted the issue to the central bank. Without getting into the nitty gritty of banking (reserve requirements, etc.), the Fed essentially has two tools, interest rates and the aggregate monetary base. This brings to mind the old saying, “When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” The Fed tries to achieve full employment by changing interest rates and increasing or decreasing the monetary base, while keeping an eye on prices, interest rates, and overall economic growth. Given such varied and often competing interests, the Fed prioritizes differently as the situation changes. Today, the U.S. economy is growing at a torrid pace, and yet Fed Chair Powell and his fellow bankers are clear that they won’t raise rates or even reduce their bond-buying program anytime soon. They have their eyes on one narrow and recent goal: not just full employment, but equitable employment Powell’s words above, along with comments he made in the press conference following the Fed’s April meeting and at other events, show that the Fed is prioritizing employment gains for groups that typically lag behind the averages above other concerns. To that end, Powell and the other voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee intend to hold interest rates near zero and continue purchasing bonds until these groups have made significant progress in employment and are close to reaching the unemployment lows achieved before the pandemic, even if inflation pushes higher. Powell has noted that any inflation should be temporary and that, like during the 2010s, we won’t have wage-push inflation, because so many people will rejoin the labor force as more jobs become available. Part of the reason unemployment fell in the years immediately after the GFC is that workers were leaving the labor force, which meant the number of employed people was measured against a declining number of people who wanted jobs. The people who left the labor force weren’t employed and weren’t looking for a job, so they simply no longer counted. The combination of employed and unemployed workers constitutes the civilian labor force, and the percentage of the population over 16 years old that participates in the civilian labor force is called the labor force participation rate. The civilian labor force reached 155 million in 2008, and then steadily declined to 153 million by 2013. That doesn’t sound like much of a drop, but from 2008 through 2013 the working-age population, people 16 to 64 years of age, increased from 196 million to 203 million. We had millions more people of working age, and yet fewer people were actually at work or looking for a job! The situation gets worse if we narrow the age range a bit more to just those in their prime working years, 25 to 54 years old. People in this group left the labor force by the millions in 2008 and did not return for more than half a decade. >> great graph "$d_web""economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/210515 Rodney Johnson, Civilian Labor Force 25–54 Years Old, 2008‒April 2021.png" The absolute number of people 25 to 54 years old dipped a bit in the early 2010s as the Boomers aged out, but that accounts for less than half of the people in this age range who dropped out of the civilian labor force in the early 2010s. As this group sat on the sidelines, they became a reserve of workers who reentered the workforce only when wages began to climb, around 2015, as slow economic growth finally created enough jobs to take up the slack in the labor force. Most of our debt matures (and is then rolled over) in maturities of less than five years. 08********08 #] 25Apr2021 Rodney's Take John Del Vecchio - big institutions can't invest <1-2G$ marp, leave micro-stocks to little guy I need to look at Jeff Brown again - or maybe John Del Vecchio Dent subSubcriberUpdate Dan Morehead at Pantera Capital, projects that the 4-year cycle peak for Bitcoin will be just over $115,233, and that peak could happen as early as August or as late as December this year, if the 4-year cycle continues to rule. It is possible, then, that Bitcoin could rally into the early stages of the next stock crash, as gold did into June 2008—and stocks could peak in the late April to mid-May time frame, when some of my best cycle guys think a turning point is likely. If Bitcoin breaks the lowest support level of 41,616 on my best chart, then I will assume that it has peaked and that stocks should follow soon. 08********08 #] 25Apr2021 Dent rant https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8Yu6I2hpXg Insightful analysts : John Del Vecchio, professional investor,forensic accountant Naiomi Sen Martin, Australia Doug Robinson, his own financial advisor firm Robinson Capital Management Randy Kuntz, with Raymond James Miguel Cole, Puerto Rico, UBS Miguel Cole - 1929-2021 semi-log chart of SP500 John Del Vecchio - 10 micro-stocks, risk-o-meter instead of cash, go into SH - inverse SP500 Harry Dent will offer this as a new investment product Time to get serious about markets and investments serious financial crashcoming soon different than gold bugs - T-bills rather than gold safe haven megaphone patter is the most important crash - 50% initial crash 08********08 #] 07Apr2021 Rodney Johnson semiconductor mfrs - >> No Canadian choices >> I bought NVIDIA back in the fall, How is it doing now? Chip companies ramped up production in 2017, as Bitcoin exploded higher and cryptocurrency mining (which requires massive computer power) made it into our everyday lexicon. The crypto crash in early 2018 left chipmakers like Nvidia sitting on piles of unwanted inventory. The VanEck Semiconductor Vectors ETF (NYSE: SMH) started 2018 at $106 and fell to $87 by December 1. Chip companies worked off their excess over the next couple of years and started 2020 in good shape. Then, the pandemic hit, which created huge demand for gadgets at home. Chip stocks went on a tear last year, with SMH soaring from $137 to $226. The increased demand for chips coincided with trade war tariffs and supply-line constraints, leading to a chip shortage that has sidelined vehicle production. But don’t expect a repeat of 2018, with a chip glut that weighs on the industry. Book-to-bill ratios show that mainstream consumer-product demand remains high, and it should be augmented by business investment as developed nations reopen throughout the year. This should give chipmakers a lot to talk about when they announce earnings. If you want a little skin in the game during earnings season, you can try to pick a favorite company. AMD has lagged recently and could catch a bid, whereas AMAT has been on fire and could continue its winning ways. If you’re not up for selecting individual companies, you could always buy SMH or another chip index. And for those hardy souls who really like to gamble, there’s always Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL), which attempts to match 300% of the daily move of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. This isn’t a long-term holding, but if chips pop this earnings season, SOXL could make a big move in just a few short weeks. NVIDA, AMD, INTEL, ?Taiwan Semi-conductor?; ETFs - SOXL, SMH Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) attempts to match 300% of the daily move of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. VanEck Semiconductor Vectors ETF (NYSE: SMH) started 2018 at $106 and fell to $87 by December 1 08********08 #] 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko second-in-a-week presentation (Greg Owen) nope, same as a few days ago 08********08 #] 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko presentation (Greg Owen) Bill Howell in Alberta - With respect t long-term interest rates, has the Fed "lost control" when it really only had limited control to begin with? Is there still not pressure for rates to rise up until fear really sets in? You have mentioned that by waiting, there is a high risk of missing a sharp turn-down in rates, just as t is a risk with a fall in stocks : not being able to get [in, out] fast enough. What is the "leveraging" of the Federal Reserve injections with respect to financial assets? Is it slightly lower than the fiat money leverage from bakking reserves? 08********08 #] 24Feb2021 The Gold Price War LIVE Debate HARRY DENT vs JAMES RICKARDS https://zoom.us/j/92160879598 Harry Dent and James Rickards will answer your most burning questions, backed with an impressive array of evidence: Should you buy gold or wait? Is there enough gold in the world? Will gold prices go up or down? How does inflation affect gold? Is gold a safe investment in the coming months and years? What affects the price of gold? Is gold really an inflation hedge? Should gold be a long term or short term investment? When is the best time to buy and sell gold? What is the best way to invest in gold? Are there risks when it comes to investing in gold? Who will make the most convincing case? What common ground do they share? One of the key things they agree on could make you reshape your strategy dramatically over the next 6 months. After debate presentations : Sean Allison will present share market Aiden Michaelson on cryptos Dent Australian fund www.DentSectorFund.com : Nursing homes - Income funds - wait for 2 years? Harry Rickards : No chance of paying debt, Central banks net sellers 1970-~2010, buyers thereafter Calculation of $/oz -> 10 k$ low end Demographics - No to Dent, will be inflationary Harry Dent : Overseas debt causes hyperinflation deflation most likely after crash 90 year dominant crash cycle (technology) : 1837, 1932, now year late due to stimulus 4 seasons cycle - population growth, peak in 2007, since 2007 US immigration-adjusted births down debt hasn't deflated yet 16T$ financial assets have to deflate 525T$ global financial assets -> 205+ T$ disappears (43% minimum!) by 2022 I we don't get deflation, I'm the dumbest person on Earth, will move to Mars Current gold bubble = Grat Financial Crisis 2007-10 Gold vs T-bonds in GFC, gold xame down after crash underway 90 year cycle hits after 80 y cycle T-bonds, not gold, was safe haven when it counted during crash, eventually goes down too Gold is THE best inflation hedge on Earth, but not good during deflation SP500 megaphone - down to 2100 (-47%) just as a start Decade+ ago Dent forecast 0% bond rates by 2022 buy 30 yeaT-bond or zero-coupons cryptos -in early stage compared to dot-com, projects95% crash BTC to 3 k$ Asians love gold - India most of all 30% short stocks, 30% bonds, maybe 30% gold? Gary Owen - questions (Q&A not active) you both say we'n a new Great Depression (Recession) Rickards - depressions are depressed growth relative to trend, can still have inflation I am projecting [slow growth, depression] my recent book I project deflation - I agree with Harry we are right at inflection point - inflation picks up 2022 quickly Dent - depressions always always involve eleveraging [debt, asset] bubbles slow workforce growth is deflationary Markets are on crack - would you listen to a crack addict? printing money - why won't printing money keep working? Dent - megaphone pattern is one of most reliable will Yellen dump 250 T$ quickly? China did worst money printing, US is best house in a bad neighborhood Rickards printing money doesn't create inflation, money velocity is key (psychological variable) Milton Freidman was right about everything except money velocity which is fluctuating don't understand Dent - declining workforce is inflationary, not deflationary deflate the debt by inflating the currency, eg end of WWII to 1980, gold goes up only 5 people in world understand currencies - 85% in US dollar (plus Euro) only measure of dollar is gold which has doubled post crash gold decline - due to traders margin calls need cash from liquid gold - very short window strong hands hold gold, which goes up after 30 days after buying at bottom Harry - people buying gold do so as inflation protection workforce decline - I invented this as inflation indicator Rickards - only two ways - deflate or inflate key thing is declining workforce, which drives wages and inflation when Harry says deeflate the debt - means defult (Harry agreed) vaccines - will they work, will it fix the economy? Rickards - not a vaccine, is genetic treatment, don't know long-term experiment suppresses symptons, doesn't cure, can still spread doesn't matter - psychological effects will be with us for 50 years, dead businesses, people afraid Dent - big shift is occuring, people are spending (as in Japan all the time) herd immunity eventually, but think collapse before then illusion of markets on crack Dent - East Asia is dying Rickard - how is declining force deflationary, not inflation "Tether" crypto is tied to dollar, greatest ponzi in history Rickard - US dollar IS a crypto-currency +-----+ Sean Allison - cryptos silver, gold, bitcoin - can make $ without owning it +-----+ My questions : - Will the Democrats have the same policies, or must they react to the "Wall Street versus Main Street" divergence? - Ray Dalio's study of history is nice, but David Fischer's 1996 "The Great Wave" on price [revolutions (rises), equibria (declines)] provides a far more thorough collection of [experience, thinking] over the last 600 years, with throw backs to ancient [Babylonia, Greece, Rome] (similar pricing behaviour, plus interest rates, wages etc). For example, hundreds of years ago people pointed out that [print, debase]ing of currency does NOT relate well to inflation, albeit it can be a factor under the right conditions (Dent has a theme like this). Are either of you familiar with these long-time economic (quantitative) studies? If so, do you have any comments? +--+ Not asked - Will the 10+ year interest rise continue as long as the US Fed pump still functions? - Under what conditions [gold, cryptos] behave [the same, differently]? Harry Dent encourages being prepared for possible market crash & deflation, as per Japan's example. - When will the Dent fund be available in [Canada,US]? (Dent's opening comment - in the next year) me to me - How do I convert BitCoin to cash? 08********08 #] 19Nov2020 CONFIRMATION: Dent vs Schiff Debate [ACCESS LINK] From: "Greg Owen" Date: Wed, November 18, 2020 11:01 am To: Bill@BillHowell.caHi Bill, Congratulations for securing your place to our very special event: The Great Heavyweight Championship of the World Bubble Burst DENT vs Gold Bug SCHIFF Friday, November 20th 10am AEDT (Sydney) Equivalent to: Thursday, November 19th 6pm EST (New York) Click here to join us LIVE. https://nz561.infusion-links.com/api/v1/click/6189037403635712/5206743689330688 This fiery debate could change your fortune. The outcome could have a lot of impact on your future wealth. Make sure you attend, it’s a unique opportunity to get your investment and wealth related questions answered. We’re expecting thousands of people to tune in to this debate due to the extensive mentions in the media, so we advise you join us a few minutes early. Here is the access link again. https://nz561.infusion-links.com/api/v1/click/4829748505739264/5206743689330688 See you there! Greg Owen 08&&&&&&&&08 My questions : see 14Nov2020 below Will the ongoing social engineering of the financial markets, including Mondern Monetary Theory influences, result in a major change in market trends, and if so, what do you thing the effects will be? Here I am thinking about the possible influence of the Federal Reserve after its formation in the early 1900's. 05-----05 Notes on presentation : Shawn Allison Australian broker licensed Options trading Institutional buying 90% of options Insider trading - people who know the [company, business] finviz - HYG high yield bonds move before stocks Warren Buffet TMC/GDP = market cap / GDP >115% is significantly over-valued, currently 173% 50-day Mving Average > ?, 80% of time market falls good chunk (50% of Australians) of employees live paycheck to paycheck 23% have no emergency savings 32G$ personal debt 1290$/month gambling SEC Form 4 submission on insider trading, within 2 days of insider trade 08********08 #] 20Oct2020 Harry's Take: The Coming Civil War in America: Do We Split Into 2 or 3 Countries? In Zero Hour, written in late 2016 just before Trump was elected, Andy Pancholi and I showed how the U.S. was in the greatest period of polarization since the Civil War—and then showed how this was happening around the globe. Of course, being two cycle guys, we showed a trio of long-term cycles pointing to just that: a 250-year Revolution Cycle, an 84-year Populist Cycle, and a 28-year Financial Crisis Cycle. Adding to that rare, long-term convergence of cycles was the 90-year Super Bubble/Great Reset Cycle, the worst cycle for financial asset crises and depressions. 08********08 #] 14Nov2020 Harry Dent: [U.S., world] economies over the next [12 months, 5 years, decade] webinar forecast of how the U.S. and world economies will unfold over the next 12 months, five years and decade Long-term bonds - Given your books and recent commentaries, this an area of interest to me, but I am fearful. You have one of the most thought-provoking concepts for what drives inflation (household formation when a generational cohort is [larger, smaller] than in the past). With Europe and Japan at negative nominal rates, and the US at negative real rates, it does seem plausible that US rates would go significantly lower over the next few years, giving strong returns for bonds, albeit perhaps not what tech investors want to see. However, I'm afraid of government policies, especially with a [socialist, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)] drive, and how rates may go up even in a strong deflationary environment. I don't expect more responsible spending will happen until AFTER a major crash forces reality, as financial responsibility doesn't seem to fit what voters now demand. Two generations ago, our academics knew that it was impossible to have stagnation and inflation together. Is it possible that the current generation will succeed in a similar manner, somehow coupling major deflation with much high [interests, inflation]? It sounds crazy, but perhaps we all are. Demographics - You've often commented on the "relative youthfulness" of US demographics compared to [Europe, Japan, China]. Do you expect any changes in the US-born birth-rate trend? Risks - You've commented on Tech vs Value rollover. Can you repeat what you expect to see if a major cr hits, in particular with respect to the risks of holdings in key value sectors such as [financials, energy, manufacturing, utilities] or other sectors, as compared to today's tech-mania? Financial asset inflation - Can continued government [cash, credit] expansion eventually lead to a [new, higher] long-term trend the apparent trend since ~1926? Here I am thinking that from just after the Civil War until 1926, financial asset pricing seemed stable, but then the long term financial asset pricing assumed an upwards trend to thent day. Did the establishment of the Federal Reserve (?1913?) have anything to do with that, and will the current mindset become entrenched? I'm thinking of a situation that is less than hyper-inflation, but much stronger than the 1926-2000 or 2020 period? Potential long-term decline of the US in an international context - From an historical perspective, it would be normal to see a roll-over in leadeship from the US, perhaps not initially to a single dominant power, but to a collection of nations that are able to manage themselves well. But a massive crash in the US might be a catalyst for changing international perceptions, and money finding a much broader set of homes? Will China especially be seen as a more stable, reasonable investment environment, if the Communists can "behave"? Will the remaining areas of US leadership [finance, science, tech] take a hard hit from more competitive regions? As an example, my priority hobby since 1988 has been neural network research. The changes there are stunning, and China seems dominant in many "hard" areas. 08********08 #] 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour India - Bombay Sensex index - Harry Dent "the strongest stock index in Asia" iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) As good as that simple TLT play is, I would prefer to buy 30-year Treasury Bonds now that the spread over the 10-year has gone from 20-30 basis points to 80+ basis points. That not only gives a substantially higher (but still low) yield, it also offers a bigger deflationary play as rates fall to near zero on the 10-year bond. These rates even could go negative, as many other major government bonds already have. They could go as low as 0.5% or so for 30-year bonds. In this deflationary scenario, that could take your gains to 40%+ in one of the safest investments on earth. Yes, they are way less volatile than gold. And don’t even think about Bitcoin at this earliest and most-volatile stage… its heyday will come later into this crash. If Bitcoin goes back down to its 2018 low near $3,000 or especially to its bubble origin around $1,350, that will be a screaming long-term buy signal. But that is not likely to happen until late 2021 to late 2022, well into or at the bottom of the great crash ahead. 08********08 #] 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] Dent - Forget hyperinflation, no correlation with massive money printing.pdf, Ray Dalio is on my preferred list of people generating long-term economic research who are worth following, along with Dr. Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter. There was a sharp surge in printing, especially in Japan, but inflation kept falling! That hurt the inflation/hyperinflation argument that gold was “bubbling” on. That’s a major point of this article: It’s very hard to create inflation during the already-deflationary winter season, especially when the money of QE is injected directly into the financial asset system and not into the banking, business, and consumer economy. You get financial asset price inflation, not inflation in consumer prices! The most recent, massive surge ever, into the second quarter of 2020, saw NO rise in inflation! What does that tell you? How do you explain that… gold bugs? >> Bill Howell - financial asset inflation!!! He is saying the same. Figure : Global-oriented S&P 500 correlates best with top 3 combined QE [USA, Europe, Japan] #] 16Jun2020 Harry's Take June 16,2020, Zombe companies /home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/key stuff/200618 Harry Dent, Dion Raboin of Axios Markets - Zombie companies explode since 2008.jpg /home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/key stuff/200618 Harry Dent, Dion Rabouin, Arbor Research - Zombie company employment by sector.jpg 08********08 #] 15Jun2020 Harry Dent newsletter >> great graphs of corporate profitability, global liquidity vs SP500 level I simply do not see the economy getting back to normal by year end, and I see the business and loan failures—despite massive stimulus—resulting in a deeper downturn into 2021 that will bottom on four of my most critical cycles together (90-, 80-, 40- and 20-year), in late 2022 for stocks and 2023 for the economy. This has been my bottom target for the worst of the winter season since 1988, when I first discovered The Spending Wave and the 80-Year Four Season Cycle. My best forecast is: after the current correction plays out into as late as early July, we get one more rally that goes a bit higher on the Nasdaq into either late August or October—and may even retest the highs on the S&P 500. Then we get a second longer, deeper crash like in 1930–1932 that takes the Dow to somewhere near 5,000! # enddoc