#] #] ********************* #] "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' www.BillHowell.ca 24Feb2021 initial To view this file - use a text editor (not word processor) constant width font (eg courrier 10), tab - 3 spaces 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour India - Bombay Sensex index - Harry Dent "the strongest stock index in Asia" iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] 12May2022 -> also watches JM Hurst (time-period fractal of 2* : like Puetz DUWS) Dent's 4 main world economy cycles : 10y - decennial, 25y - demographic, 35y - geopolitical, 45y - technology Insightful analysts : Miguel Cole, Puerto Rico Lacy Hunt - first economist to explain money velocity to Dent, speaks at Dent conferences Randy Kuntz, with Raymond James Naiomi Sen Martin, Australia Andrew Pancholi - Market Timing Report, awesome timing! Doug Robinson, his own financial advisor firm Robinson Capital Management Peter Schiff (gold bug) good commentary John Del Vecchio, professional investor 48************************************************48 24************************24 # Table of Contents : # $ grep "^#]" "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' | sed 's/^#\]/ /' ********************* "$d_web"'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/0_Dent notes.txt' 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour ??Dec2022 ??Dec2022 12Apr2023 Dent's 20$US webinar rant "The market crash around the corner" 21Sep2022 Harry's Take: Mega Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 06Jun2022 ls -1 "$d_web""'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/' 02Sep2021 catchup Rodney's Take 9-1-21 The Chinese Play the Long Game Harry's Take 8-31-21 Reader Mailbag Rodney's Take 8-25-21 When No One Knows the Ending 19May2021 Rodney's take 25Apr2021 Rodney's Take 25Apr2021 Dent rant 07Apr2021 Rodney Johnson semiconductor mfrs - 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko second-in-a-week presentation (Greg Owen) 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko presentation (Greg Owen) 24Feb2021 The Gold Price War LIVE Debate 19Nov2020 CONFIRMATION: Dent vs Schiff Debate [ACCESS LINK] 20Oct2020 Harry's Take: The Coming Civil War in America: Do We Split Into 2 or 3 Countries? 14Nov2020 Harry Dent: [U.S., world] economies over the next [12 months, 5 years, decade] 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] 16Jun2020 Harry's Take June 16,2020, Zombe companies 15Jun2020 Harry Dent newsletter 24************************24 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] ??Dec2023 08********08 #] 29Dec2023 Harry Dent forecast Biggest One-Year Crash Ever Likely in 2024.pdf But nothing natural happened from 2008 forward, given the unprecedented $27.2T in combined net money printing and fiscal deficit spending injected into the economy. I outlined that in the December issue of the HS Dent Forecast: we got $19.15T in cumulative deficits and $8.05T in net money printing, and now the Fed has had to reverse dramatically to tightening. Most probably think the Federal Reserve and U.S. government did something similar in the Great Depression. Not! great "male versus female orgasm" illustration of bubble crashes 08********08 #] 02Dec2023 Unprecedented Money Printing, Federal deficits since 2008 doubled.pdf ... That’s $1.7T a year, or 9% of average GDP, right at $19T. Note in the chart that the deficits alone were 6.3% of cumulative GDP over www.hsdent.com that long period. And then there is 2.6% in direct money printing. So, here’s the truth: Our modest average 2.2% real GDP growth since 2008 cost us 8.9% of cumulative GDP in stimulus. Does that sound like a good deal to you? And more damning is that this clear fact basically suggests that U.S. economic growth otherwise would have been net negative, perhaps by as much as 6.6% a year. Now, that is a Great Depression! Fiscal Total GDP GDP % Year Deficit 2008 0.45 14.77 3.0 2009 1.42 14.48 9.8 2010 1.29 15.05 8.6 2011 1.30 15.60 8.3 2012 1.09 16.25 6.7 2013 0.68 16.84 4.0 2014 0.48 17.55 2.7 2015 0.44 18.21 2.4 2016 0.59 18.70 3.2 2017 0.67 19.48 3.4 2018 0.78 20.53 3.8 2019 0.98 21.38 4.6 2020 3.13 21.06 14.9 2021 2.77 23.32 11.9 2022 1.38 25.46 5.4 2023 1.70 26.24 6.5 Total 19.15 304.92 6.3 Source: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/#us-deficit-by-year; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US ... As I learned at Bain and then employed with my new venture clients, the key question for business analysis is this: Where does the company really make money? Knowing the answer requires separating the fixed costs from the variable ones that rise directly with sales, and then allocating those fixed costs to whatever product or division actually generates them —and that takes some serious examination. For example, you might need to look at how much of the company’s square footage is actually used by each product or division. When you properly allocate those costs, you can see where you are actually making or losing money (and how much). And your higher sales products are often the losers, because you are giving them away to gain share. ... How much does a company make and add to real cash flow every time a dollar of sales is added, once you subtract just the variable costs it takes to meet that extra sale? Most businesses are shocked to find that number can be as high as 70%, and it can be wildly different among various product lines or services, from as low as 30% to as high as 80%. Now, do you want to sell more of the 70% contribution margin product or the 40%? It’s a no-brainer! And it’s better to measure your investments by weighing the growth in each product or division against the contribution margin it creates, which is the real impact. /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/recess Dent: Sahm Rule of Surging Unemployment Explains Fed Panic of 2020-2022.png /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/tech Dent: Tech Stocks Outperform S&P 500 Even More Than at 2000 and 1968 Tops.png /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/PE Dent: US CAPE Ratio Most Overvalued vs. Any Stock Market in the World.png The more-bargain markets are Singapore at 6%, Hong Kong 5%, and South Africa 1%, and each of these is still modestly overvalued. I think the most-resilient stock markets will be down 50% or more. So, say NO to foreign stocks and get into safe, long-term bonds, like U.S. 10- and 30-year Treasuries… and not gold. I predict that gold will fall about 50%, from around $2,100-$2,150 highs to $900-$1,060 in the continued crash ahead. /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/crash John Hussman: Four Stock Indicators Flash Crash as in 2000, 2007, 1972. More to Come.png 08********08 #] 01Nov2023 Harry Dent forecasts /home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/Dent forecast/231101 Harry Dent forecast: the Tipping Point.pdf +--+ 231101 Harry Dent forecast: the Tipping Point I am finally sensing that we’ve come to the tipping point in this now 15- year battle against a deep recession or depression and debt detox since the last recession set in around the beginning of 2008, the point at which we’ve run out of tricks, cover-ups, excuses, and something-for-nothing policies that just kick the can down the road. We’re at the end of that road, it appears! There is finally nothing to do but face the obvious: We have record and astounding levels of debt as a percentage of GDP at all levels—and we have to go through a restructuring of that debt. In business, we’d call it a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/ house Dent: existing home sales 35% volume down 2010-2023.png div Dent: SP500 present value of dividends, foreshadows major crash.png +--+ 230928 Harry Dent forecast: Largest Fed tightening in four decades, no soft landing possible /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/ jobs Dent: US job openings versus SPX, 2001-2023.png house Dent: mortgage purchase index 1990-2023, worse than 2008.png The scariest indicator is the Mortgage Purchase Index. Housing is the largest sector and has had the biggest bubble ever this second time around. This index peaked in May 2006 around 530 and crashed to 150 in late 2014. Housing takes longer to fall and recover than stocks. So, I expect bargains in housing after a larger 50% or so crash this time (it was 34% after the 2008 financial crisis) that could go on until 2026 or 2027, long after stocks likely bottom by late 2024. +--+ 230905 Harry Dent forecast: As China goes, so goes the world The markets love to accelerate when times are good and then pull out the rug and shake out the excesses when debt and bubbles get out of control—and there has been no greater, broader, or longer debt and financial asset bubble in history than what we saw from 1995 to 2021! So, this will be the ultimate showdown between the markets and central banks. I’m rooting for the markets—which reflect the collective intelligence of all investors, not just of a few academic-minded central bankers. By my hierarchy of natural cycles (the 45-year Innovation, 39-year Generational, 35-year Geopolitical, and 10-year Decennial cycles) we should have had a 15- to 16-year generational downturn from 2008 into 2022-2023. The worst stock crashes should have come at the beginning, from late 2007 into late 2010, and at the end, from late 2019 into late 2022, during the Decennial Cycles. Instead, we got the “great reflation” as a result of central bank actions from early 2009 into early 2022. The biggest surges in stimulus happened from 2009 into 2014 and then during the COVID panic from early 2020 into early 2022. ... Now, 22% of China’s homes sit empty as a result of overbuilding, which the Chinese government fully sanctioned and supported. That is insane and will lead to major deflation. I’ll show just ahead how bleak China’s longer-term trends are. But China’s policies also led to the greatest emergence and boom of a country in history, and in over just four decades. The U.S. led the 1929-1932 crash, and thus far, China is leading this one. In fact, China’s Shanghai Composite peaked all the way back in 2007, as I’ve shown before and will show here again at the top of the next page. This pattern has remained the same over all the years I have been showing it. Now, the pattern again finally is close to crashing out of the bottom side, after its lower e-wave top in February 2021. The Shanghai Composite has been in an a-b-c-d-e triangle pattern ever since its late 2007 top. It is typical for the last e wave to peak below or above the triangle as a fake- out move; in this case, it peaked well below, which is even more bearish. At this point, a clear break of around 2,850, just 9% below the recent lows of 3,123, would project a break down to around 1,000, 68% below recent levels and 84% below the all-time highs of 6,124 in late 2007. /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/ stkIdx Dent: Shanghai comp 2005-23 projects ~3,200 -> 1,000.png popln Dent: China population from ~1.43G 2010 -> 0.8G 2100.png productivity Dent: China productivity slowing, 4.5% 2008 -> 0.7% 2019.png +--+ 230731 Harry Dent forecast: The Recession That Never Quite Happens, It Should Start by Early 2024.pdf The big story on CNBC has been that recession keeps getting forecast but never hits. And 2nd quarter GDP initial estimates just came out at 2.4%, not very bearish. Normally, I think the markets know where they want to go, as they are driven by the smarter money. They just spend most of their time “hiding” that direction to keep shaking out the dumb money. The smart money obviously wants to take as much of the growing pie as they can and leave the least possible to the rest of us... But I’m not sure that even the smart money is clear at this point. Why? Central banks have so distorted the economy with endless money printing that nothing is clear. Most investors think the economy is actually strong under the hood, By Harry Dent but that’s not what my most fundamental model, the Spending Wave, says. The Spending Wave for the largest generation, the Baby Boomers (on a 46-year lag to births and adjusted for immigration), peaked back in late 2007. All the way back in the late 1980s and in my first book in 1989 I forecast that this would happen in that year. >> sounds just like Howell: blinding the market, perceptions of cost when price is free "As the perceived marginal economic cost of a [good, service] tends to zero, so does it's marginal economic value." (Howell, for > a decade?) The chart on the next page tells the simple story. After the brutal 2008-2009 downturn, the Fed started a printing spree in 2009 just to get the economy back on track. At first, the stimulus was expected to reach only $1T or so. But there was no “just getting back”: the largest generation in history was done raising and educating their kids and buying and furnishing their largest houses. Hence, that first printing spree ended up being $3.6T cumulatively over six years, an unprecedented amount back then. The government had never before printed anywhere near that much money as a percentage of GDP, even in the Great Depression. How can an economy be seen as healthy if it requires that much stimulus for that long to keep growing at below-average rates? Since 2009, the new ethos and goal of economists and central banks have been to tolerate NO recessions, avoiding them at all costs. That tactic is extremely dangerous and smacks of “central bankers know more about the economy than the invisible hand.” Mario Draghi was the first to buy into this insanity when he said, roughly, “I will print unlimited amounts of money to fight short sellers and a crash.” After two centuries of the greatest expansion in history of our standard of living—by a mile (in the U.S., the expansion has increased eight times just since 1900, adjusted for inflation)—central banks threw free market capitalism right out the window without a second thought. No more booms and busts, inflation and deflation, investments and failures/write-offs... And these all play a part in the natural process outlined by Adam Smith in the late 1700s, which he so brilliantly and appropriately called the “invisible hand." Recessions are as necessary to the economy as sleep is to the human body. They clear out excesses, bad debts, zombie companies, and inefficiencies, just like forest fires clear the dead wood from a HS Dent Forecast­ August 2023 WWW.HSDENT.COM­ 2forest, allowing new growth. Hence, recessions ultimately make us more profitable and wealthy, in the end... despite their destructive effects in the short term, as they cleanse and restructure the markets and economy. Everything in life occurs in cycles, and for good d**n reason! Cycles create and advance the wheel of innovation. Fighting that is to fight innovation itself. And recessions are needed less than 30% of the time, much like sleep (six to eight hours out of 24). To return to the forest fire metaphor, that’s why park rangers let most fires burn unless they threaten the whole system. How productive would you be if you didn’t sleep for three days straight? The End of a Demographic Downturn and a Technology Transition This next chart shows how new technology cycles overlap to create new stages of growth that are as or more powerful than the results of new generational spending and productivity waves. Just imagine how life would be without our PCs, smart phones, and the Internet. tech Dent: Disruption and Overlapping S-Curves, Internet of past -> Blockchain future.png tech Dent: Evolution of computers in overlapping S-curves 1946-2022.png cycle Dent: Most stkIdx tops explained by [tech-innov 45y, generation 39y, decenniel correction 45y] cycles.png The simplest transition at present is that we are going from the top Internet of a now-mature, very- powerful, Internet-based Discontinuity Technology Wave that connected us all through our PCs and now smart phones since the early 1990s into a new wave of biotechnological www.hsdent.com innovations so early stage and immature that is harder to grasp the full implications of it. But clearer and more visible to me is the blockchain and cryptocurrency revolution, which promises to “digitize all financial assets and money” into a much more efficient global standard and system, to use the concise definition I first heard at one of my conferences from a guest speaker, the investor and hedge fund manager Mark Yusko. Global Debt Bubble Crash Starts in China and Spreads to the U.S. and World I have been saying for a long time that China is at the center of this bubble, like the U.S. was at the center of the last bubble into the Roaring ‘20s. China is the last major economy to pretend it can run best from top-down management; now, even India understands that won’t work. The Chinese overbuilt housing by 22%+ in an economy that had peaked demographically long term in its Spending Wave in 2011. Yes, China has another 15% or so to go in urbanization before it maxes out around 80%, but enough extra homes have been built already to house the rest of that urban migration and more. China is peaking NOW, and home or stock prices there will never again be as high in our lifetimes. Southeast Asia and India instead will dominate growth from now into 2055-2065. That’s where to invest after the overdue bust that should occur into 2024 or 2025. Great series of consumer [fashion, spend] cycles!! fun!! 08********08 #] 01Nov2023 Rodney Johnson monthly reports: save, use Rodney Johnson's investment lists! +--+ 231016 Rodney Johnson report: Politicians dont get it yet From Ross Perot to Oliver Anthony and State Captols to Washington But Perot is most known for connecting with everyday Americans when he ran for president in 1992 and harped on the notions of Americans losing jobs and bankrupting our nation with Michigan State University, debt under the proposed North Lansing, 1992: third American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. presidential debate. Candidate Ross Perot (right) He garnered 19% of the vote and shakes hands with Candidate is widely thought to have pulled Bill Clinton (left) as President enough support from incumbent George H.W. Bush looks on (center). Image from George President George H.W. Bush to put Bush Presidential Library, Bill Clinton into the Oval Office. As in public domain. Source: Perot noted, one candidate was a Wikimedia Commons. WWW.HSDENT.COM­ 1career politician who ran up our deficits and the other was a state governor with a budget the size of a Walmart (Clinton was then governor of Arkansas). I voted for Perot, but as I lived in Texas, I knew that Bush would carry the state. The real average earnings gained ground from the mid-1960s until the inflation of the 1970s ate away at purchasing power. Starting in the late 1980s, workers lost ground until the 1990s, when real average annual earnings fell to 93% of the level in 1964, more than 20% lower than at the peak. It took until 2000 for workers to claw their way back to even and until 2007, right before the Great Financial Crisis, to make real gains. Real earnings dipped around 2012, but then started to climb again in the late 2010s. As of 2022, real average annual earnings were 15% above what they were in 1964, a high they last reached in 1973. /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/wage Johnson: US real average earning index 1964-2022, 231023.png >> Howell: wow!! covid cash was only thing to boost real avg personal earnings (wages etc) to 1973 levels!!! +--+ 230921 Rodney Johnson report: Govt to Fed hold my beer I hate being average, but that’s where I am right now. My brain tumor is back after about 14 months. I comprehend everything, but speaking aloud can be a struggle from time to time—often to my frustration, a fact to which a doctor and a couple of nurses at my hospital can attest. My left hand is also a bit of a problem, so I’m fumbling on that side of the keyboard. The real problem is that I still have so much to say and want to discuss! This edition of my newsletter will get my main points across but perhaps includes less of my “sparkling personality” (sarcasm). I will have a functional MRI soon. I will let you know where I stand after that During the pandemic, it seemed like the world economy was falling off a cliff. Official unemployment reached 16% or so, but we know it would have been much more without government support programs. The U.S. government mailed out trillions of dollars directly to people, but they also mailed out hundreds of billions of dollars to businesses that promised to keep employees on the books. It was a financial nuclear bomb—and it worked, even though the last tranche of money wasn’t necessary. We won’t go into the deficit balloon here. And then there is the Fed. In the blink of an eye, the central bankers printed $4.5 trillion, way more than had Uncle Sam, which righted the financial ship and kept everyone’s IRAs intact. The Fed’s actions worked (probably a bit too well), and now the central bank is trying to reign in some of the inflationary conditions they caused. The problem is that the central bank created mostly financial inflation. The idea of low rates causing a housing crunch in 2021 is like blaming the iPhones themselves for people looking at their phones all the time today. That ship sailed over a decade ago. We changed how we worked during the pandemic, often by logging in from home, and due to supply issues we couldn’t get the stuff that we now had the money to buy. It’s about to happen again. While the Fed can push a button or make a call or two to sell $95 billion in bonds each month or to buy back $400 billion (like it did in March when a couple of banks wobbled), it takes a long WWW.HSDENT.COM­ 1time for Uncle Sam to get going on programs beyond sending checks. But once the government does get going, it’s like a very long train that’s impossible to stop. Remember the $1.2 billion 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) that was going to revitalize the nation... and the more-recent $750 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA)? Hundreds of billions of dollars have been allotted or apportioned, but little has gone out the door. For that to happen, local and state government committees must approve the projects, companies must be willing to comply with government stipulations, and we will need something else: people. We’re about to take a one-way trip on the inflation train, courtesy of the federal government, which will drive the central bankers nuts. As kids today say when they want to show you something awesome, “Hold my beer.” +--+ 230815 Rodney Johnson report: Bending the Yield Curve Back Through Zero.pdf What's Normal? If you grew up on a tropical island, then 85°F and a chance of rain is normal weather on most days. If you spent your youth in Salt Lake City, UT, then high desert is the norm, with cold winters and hot summers. When it comes to interest rates, “normal” depends on how long you’ve been involved with the markets. If you graduated college in 2009 at age 22, then Fed funds never went higher than 0.0% to 0.25% for the first six years of your career and didn’t hit 1% until you turned 30. That experience likely would make you consider very low rates to be normal, even though historically this hasn’t been the case. The chart shows the Fed funds effective rate for the past 68 years. This should bring to mind another childhood memory, a song from the television show Sesame Street, “One of These Things (Is Not Like the Others).” Before 2009, the rate rarely dipped below 2.5%, even during recessions. Starting in 2009, it took six years to rise off zero and 13 years for Fed funds to rise above 2.5%. The decade of the 2010s was the odd man out, so to speak. >> Hah! Howell not alone anymore... (again with Rodney) +--+ 230717 Rodney Johnson report: We Have Lots of Ore, We’re Just Short on Mines.pdf 08********08 #] 01Nov2023 Rodney Johnson - Fed delta-leverage, finally Howell's not alone anymore I’ve said several times that the Fed is like a person with a hammer looking for a nail and, finding only interest rates, beats on rates like a madman. But that’s a simplistic view. The Fed also has a gigantic balance sheet that it can use to tweak intermediate or long rates by adjusting its drawdown. We don’t often discuss this, but we should. ... The central bank then announced it intended to let roughly $95 billion in bonds roll off its balance sheet, although it did not tell us for how long. The Fed let the balance dwindle slowly to $8.3 trillion until the bank debacle in March 2023, and then added back $400 billion in the blink of an eye to steady the markets. Since then, the Fed has allowed roughly $800 billion in bonds to roll off, bringing its total to $7.9 trillion. Remember, the central bank owned a “mere” $4 trillion in bonds before the pandemic, but then added $5 trillion to keep long rates at basement levels. Now that the bank not only is not buying bonds but is an active seller, it is adding to the pressure that pushes long yields higher and their prices lower. With so much inventory, the Fed has a lot of leeway to change its course. If the central bankers want to strengthen the fight against inflation, they could sell bonds more quickly. If the central bankers wanted to take their collective foot off the economic brake, they simply could stop selling bonds and hold their balance sheet steady. In a dovish move, they could reverse course by purchasing more bonds like they did in March. I’ve heard that only 20% of communication is the spoken word. Anyone who has been in a relationship can attest that a stare, a stance, or a micro-expression can convey more than a two-hour lecture. If the bankers at the Fed want to give us a signal, they can use their balance sheet without saying a word. 08********08 #] 30Oct2023 Rodney Johnson -> John Del Vecchio wrote this "Rodney's Take" Del Vecchio's fund through Dent? +-----+ #] 23Oct2023 Harry's rant 20Oct2023 market sentiment indicators to avoid getting fooled https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9brexr5iJ_s 08:36 length Harry's Rant 10-20-23 80.7K subscribers Are you part of the smart money... or the dumb money? As the next big crash looms, Harry Dent discusses how the everyday investor can use market sentiment indicators to avoid getting fooled by the smart money, regardless of the timing of the crash. >> very good rant! usually highly repetitive on crash indicators Sentiment indicators : Investors' Intelligence : bull-bear index, recently 67% bullish, 18% bearish American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) : bull-bear [%, ratio]s slim window for [buy, sell] : slightly >50% bullish is sell signal (eg 19Jul2023 51.4%) slightly >50% bearish is buy signal (eg 21-22Dec2022 52.3%, about as low as it gets) +-----+ #] 17Oct2023 Reventure Consulting: M2 contracts 1st time since Great Depression, 1930-1932 Reventure Consulting: M2 contracts for the first time since the start of the Great Depression, 1930-1932 /home/bill/web/economics, markets/Cool stuff/Reventure Consulting: M2 contracts 1st time since Great Depression, 1930-1932.png +-----+ #] 12Apr2023 Dent's 20$US webinar rant "The market crash around the corner" https://hsdent.com/the-market-crash-around-the-corner-replay/?inf_contact_key=a69235465348b18e4b3bc8fb53db2ce7680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1 replay of webinar rant George Gilbert (Guilder?) - failure is reason for success of free-market capitalism >> one of Harry Dent's favourite economists Carter Work? CNC good technical analyst >> Harry Dent likes SQQQ triple short NASDAQ, major buy at 28-30$/shr? 43:?? list of shorts crypto 56:44 Reserve currency duration by nation 1400-present, US loses now or by2040 57:54 Tipping point: Central bank recession prevention policies finally fail? +-----+ #] 21Sep2022 Harry's Take: Mega Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 Mega Behind-the-Scenes Trend- Money Velocity Crashing Like From 1918 to 1932 scary graph : /home/bill/SG6/web/Cool stuff/220921 Dent - Velocity of money crashes since stock and real estate bubbles began sell my house? +-----+ #] 06Jun2022 ls -1 "$d_web""'economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/' Dent 220601 Normal-valuation housing markets increay rare, mostly in upper midWest.png Dent 220601 Zombie companies cant pay debt service - tripled to 24% since 2017 Dent 220601 Likely home-price peak near $452k, sahrpest spike ever since covid Dent 220601 Contrary to perceptions, new home sales have fallen rapidly sinceAug2020 Dent 220601 after extreme lows in late 2020, housing months supply exploding back up Dent 220601 S&P500 top and crash scenario likely into late 2023 - 5-wave pattern 08********08 #] 02Sep2021 catchup +-----+ #] Rodney's Take 9-1-21 The Chinese Play the Long Game Zhou Bo, a senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army from 2003 to 2020, wrote in The New York Times: “With the U.S. withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment. “Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building—areas in which China’s capabilities are arguably unmatched—and access to $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.” Those are interesting word choices. The Chinese "can offer" “political impartiality” sounds a lot like, “We don’t care how you treat your people or rule your nation.” The Chinese appear to be offering assistance in building infrastructure in exchange for unfettered access to mineral deposits that have eluded private companies and public initiatives for years. +-----+ #] Harry's Take 8-31-21 Reader Mailbag Q: You always recommend long-term Treasuries as great investments that have good appreciation during the down cycle, and you reference the 1930s. But the level of national debt then was so much lower than the present $30 trillion plus. Isn’t the dollar vulnerable to devaluation risk, and won’t the results of this devaluation hurt the value of Treasury holdings? A: I have to keep stressing that this debt bubble is global. The U.S. has trailed in its government debt–to-GDP ratio; in comparison, the ratios for Europe are substantially higher and the ratio for Japan is off the charts. Hence, although the borrowing binge for the U.S. is the most extreme in its history, our dollar has not gone down and even has appreciated relative to our main trading partners, as they are getting into even more debt and leverage. In the downturn that is now imminent, the U.S. dollar actually is likely to spike into the worst of the crisis, as it did in mid-to-late 2008—because we are seen as the best safe-haven country due to our size and world dominance and our relatively lower debt levels. Currencies don't have absolute values like stocks and bonds, they trade relative to each other. U.S. T-bonds were clearly the best safe haven asset—way better than gold—in 2008, and they will be again, but even more so this time, given that this time, the downturn will be deeper and include much more debt deleveraging. Rodney's Take 8-30-21 Political Powell Gave Investors a Pass The Fed’s easy monetary policy is supposed to generate more economic activity by making loans cheaper and therefore encouraging borrowing. It’s not happening. Bank loans sit about where they were before the pandemic, even though bank deposits have increased by trillions of dollars. The extra funds sit at the Fed in the form of excess reserves, doing nothing but clogging the financial system. Without more lending, the bond buying won’t create more jobs, but the extra dollars do have an effect somewhere else: they inflate financial asset prices. Q: Why did the stock market recover to new record highs from the 2020 stock market crash from Feb 20, 2020, to Apr 7, 2020? If ever there was a trigger for the next depression, then it would have been the COVID crisis. Since the virus failed to set deflation into motion, what event in the next few weeks possibly could? A: The Fed and the government saw how deep the economic contraction would be—a short depression—and they quickly came out with a combined $9 trillion combo of monetary and fiscal stimulus, totaling 42% of GDP! That's why the stock market instantly jumped to a new high, even though the economy is still well below pre-COVID levels of GDP and unemployment. The stock market has had less to do with the economy since massive QE started in late 2008, and now it is totally divorced from it. The problem now is that when stocks start to crash again and the economy starts to weaken again, what are they going to do next, print and borrow 100% of GDP? There is a point of both diminishing returns on exponentially expanding stimulus and a loss of credibility from doing the same thing and expecting a different response... like anticipating a sustainable recovery without ever more stimulus. At that point, stocks will go down no matter how much money they print. This is a simple go-until-the-bubble-blows strategy, and I think we are in the final days, weeks, or months of it at most, as Jeremy Grantham said recently. It’s better to get out a bit early than too late at this point. +---+ #] Rodney's Take 8-25-21 When No One Knows the Ending Unemployment has fallen dramatically since last summer. We now have more job openings that unemployed workers. I don’t have a strong conviction as to what will happen. I think Powell will discuss tapering bond purchases sometime this fall, but only if the economy remains on track. He won’t define what that means, so as to give the bankers wiggle room. Inflation will remain elevated, as rent, food, and energy prices move higher, but then GDP growth will stall. The Fed will push bond-purchase tapering out a bit farther, which will give equities and bonds a boost while denting the dollar Or, it could all be the opposite—and that’s the problem. By intervening so often over the past 13 years, the Fed has removed any sense of market-based price discovery. We’re more comfortable with a future that includes central bank intervention than with one that doesn’t, which is a scary prospect that seems destined to end badly. 08********08 #] 19May2021 Rodney's take The Federal Reserve’s Inequality Machine In the May Rodney Johnson Report, I explained how the Fed is fostering inflation as it pursues a narrow but laudable employment goal, reducing black unemployment. As the Fed holds down interest rates and continues to purchase $120 billion worth of bonds each month, it is adding economic fuel to a fire that’s already raging because of the trillions of dollars in federal relief spending flowing through the system. The result will be the same as it has been since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), one of the things the Fed claims it wants to diminish, inequality. ... By holding interest rates near record lows for more than a decade, with just a brief interlude of rising rates in the mid-2010s, the Fed has driven equity markets higher, rewarding existing equity investors and those who receive shares as compensation. It seems unlikely that the Fed sets out to make rich people richer or to increase the wealth gap between those who own equities and those who do not, but their main tools do exactly that. By increasing the money supply and keeping rates low to encourage growth, the Fed drives investors into riskier assets and tilts valuation models toward equities, padding the pockets of people with accumulated wealth along the way. This is not a complaint. I was lucky enough to do well before 2008, so we’ve been riding this equity wave and enjoying falling interest rates for more than a decade. And I’m not interested in giving any government entity (including the Fed) more tools to use for wealth redistribution. I’m just pointing out that the central bank is ill-equipped to pursue one of the main goals that the bankers often discuss in public. To make it worse, they’re now wading into climate change! If the Fed begins rating banks on their “exposure” to companies with climate risk, the bankers will move from generally favoring some groups over others to explicitly picking winners and losers. That’s no way to manage a currency or work toward moderate prices and full employment. >> Great insight! 08********08 18May2021 +-----+ 210515 Rodney Johnson Report The Fed's Mandate The Federal Reserve Bank was created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The Fed was tasked with maintaining U.S. currency by ensuring moderate price changes and moderate interest rates. The bankers were charged with taming the business cycle by keeping the value of the U.S. dollar steady. It was an impossible job, made worse by political decisions, wars, and actions by other countries, so Congress did the only thing politicians know how to do: they made it worse. In the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 (the Humphrey-Hawkins Act), Congress added full employment to the Fed’s to-do list. Congress had been legislatively impotent in its efforts to cure the malaise of the 1970s, so it punted the issue to the central bank. Without getting into the nitty gritty of banking (reserve requirements, etc.), the Fed essentially has two tools, interest rates and the aggregate monetary base. This brings to mind the old saying, “When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” The Fed tries to achieve full employment by changing interest rates and increasing or decreasing the monetary base, while keeping an eye on prices, interest rates, and overall economic growth. Given such varied and often competing interests, the Fed prioritizes differently as the situation changes. Today, the U.S. economy is growing at a torrid pace, and yet Fed Chair Powell and his fellow bankers are clear that they won’t raise rates or even reduce their bond-buying program anytime soon. They have their eyes on one narrow and recent goal: not just full employment, but equitable employment Powell’s words above, along with comments he made in the press conference following the Fed’s April meeting and at other events, show that the Fed is prioritizing employment gains for groups that typically lag behind the averages above other concerns. To that end, Powell and the other voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee intend to hold interest rates near zero and continue purchasing bonds until these groups have made significant progress in employment and are close to reaching the unemployment lows achieved before the pandemic, even if inflation pushes higher. Powell has noted that any inflation should be temporary and that, like during the 2010s, we won’t have wage-push inflation, because so many people will rejoin the labor force as more jobs become available. Part of the reason unemployment fell in the years immediately after the GFC is that workers were leaving the labor force, which meant the number of employed people was measured against a declining number of people who wanted jobs. The people who left the labor force weren’t employed and weren’t looking for a job, so they simply no longer counted. The combination of employed and unemployed workers constitutes the civilian labor force, and the percentage of the population over 16 years old that participates in the civilian labor force is called the labor force participation rate. The civilian labor force reached 155 million in 2008, and then steadily declined to 153 million by 2013. That doesn’t sound like much of a drop, but from 2008 through 2013 the working-age population, people 16 to 64 years of age, increased from 196 million to 203 million. We had millions more people of working age, and yet fewer people were actually at work or looking for a job! The situation gets worse if we narrow the age range a bit more to just those in their prime working years, 25 to 54 years old. People in this group left the labor force by the millions in 2008 and did not return for more than half a decade. >> great graph "$d_web""economics, markets/Harry S Dent Jr/210515 Rodney Johnson, Civilian Labor Force 25–54 Years Old, 2008‒April 2021.png" The absolute number of people 25 to 54 years old dipped a bit in the early 2010s as the Boomers aged out, but that accounts for less than half of the people in this age range who dropped out of the civilian labor force in the early 2010s. As this group sat on the sidelines, they became a reserve of workers who reentered the workforce only when wages began to climb, around 2015, as slow economic growth finally created enough jobs to take up the slack in the labor force. Most of our debt matures (and is then rolled over) in maturities of less than five years. 08********08 #] 25Apr2021 Rodney's Take John Del Vecchio - big institutions can't invest <1-2G$ marp, leave micro-stocks to little guy I need to look at Jeff Brown again - or maybe John Del Vecchio Dent subSubcriberUpdate Dan Morehead at Pantera Capital, projects that the 4-year cycle peak for Bitcoin will be just over $115,233, and that peak could happen as early as August or as late as December this year, if the 4-year cycle continues to rule. It is possible, then, that Bitcoin could rally into the early stages of the next stock crash, as gold did into June 2008—and stocks could peak in the late April to mid-May time frame, when some of my best cycle guys think a turning point is likely. If Bitcoin breaks the lowest support level of 41,616 on my best chart, then I will assume that it has peaked and that stocks should follow soon. 08********08 #] 25Apr2021 Dent rant https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8Yu6I2hpXg Insightful analysts : John Del Vecchio, professional investor,forensic accountant Naiomi Sen Martin, Australia Doug Robinson, his own financial advisor firm Robinson Capital Management Randy Kuntz, with Raymond James Miguel Cole, Puerto Rico, UBS Miguel Cole - 1929-2021 semi-log chart of SP500 John Del Vecchio - 10 micro-stocks, risk-o-meter instead of cash, go into SH - inverse SP500 Harry Dent will offer this as a new investment product Time to get serious about markets and investments serious financial crashcoming soon different than gold bugs - T-bills rather than gold safe haven megaphone patter is the most important crash - 50% initial crash 08********08 #] 07Apr2021 Rodney Johnson semiconductor mfrs - >> No Canadian choices >> I bought NVIDIA back in the fall, How is it doing now? Chip companies ramped up production in 2017, as Bitcoin exploded higher and cryptocurrency mining (which requires massive computer power) made it into our everyday lexicon. The crypto crash in early 2018 left chipmakers like Nvidia sitting on piles of unwanted inventory. The VanEck Semiconductor Vectors ETF (NYSE: SMH) started 2018 at $106 and fell to $87 by December 1. Chip companies worked off their excess over the next couple of years and started 2020 in good shape. Then, the pandemic hit, which created huge demand for gadgets at home. Chip stocks went on a tear last year, with SMH soaring from $137 to $226. The increased demand for chips coincided with trade war tariffs and supply-line constraints, leading to a chip shortage that has sidelined vehicle production. But don’t expect a repeat of 2018, with a chip glut that weighs on the industry. Book-to-bill ratios show that mainstream consumer-product demand remains high, and it should be augmented by business investment as developed nations reopen throughout the year. This should give chipmakers a lot to talk about when they announce earnings. If you want a little skin in the game during earnings season, you can try to pick a favorite company. AMD has lagged recently and could catch a bid, whereas AMAT has been on fire and could continue its winning ways. If you’re not up for selecting individual companies, you could always buy SMH or another chip index. And for those hardy souls who really like to gamble, there’s always Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL), which attempts to match 300% of the daily move of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. This isn’t a long-term holding, but if chips pop this earnings season, SOXL could make a big move in just a few short weeks. NVIDA, AMD, INTEL, ?Taiwan Semi-conductor?; ETFs - SOXL, SMH Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) attempts to match 300% of the daily move of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. VanEck Semiconductor Vectors ETF (NYSE: SMH) started 2018 at $106 and fell to $87 by December 1 08********08 #] 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko second-in-a-week presentation (Greg Owen) nope, same as a few days ago 08********08 #] 27Mar2021 Harry's Goyko presentation (Greg Owen) Bill Howell in Alberta - With respect t long-term interest rates, has the Fed "lost control" when it really only had limited control to begin with? Is there still not pressure for rates to rise up until fear really sets in? You have mentioned that by waiting, there is a high risk of missing a sharp turn-down in rates, just as t is a risk with a fall in stocks : not being able to get [in, out] fast enough. What is the "leveraging" of the Federal Reserve injections with respect to financial assets? Is it slightly lower than the fiat money leverage from bakking reserves? 08********08 #] 24Feb2021 The Gold Price War LIVE Debate HARRY DENT vs JAMES RICKARDS https://zoom.us/j/92160879598 Harry Dent and James Rickards will answer your most burning questions, backed with an impressive array of evidence: Should you buy gold or wait? Is there enough gold in the world? Will gold prices go up or down? How does inflation affect gold? Is gold a safe investment in the coming months and years? What affects the price of gold? Is gold really an inflation hedge? Should gold be a long term or short term investment? When is the best time to buy and sell gold? What is the best way to invest in gold? Are there risks when it comes to investing in gold? Who will make the most convincing case? What common ground do they share? One of the key things they agree on could make you reshape your strategy dramatically over the next 6 months. After debate presentations : Sean Allison will present share market Aiden Michaelson on cryptos Dent Australian fund www.DentSectorFund.com : Nursing homes - Income funds - wait for 2 years? Harry Rickards : No chance of paying debt, Central banks net sellers 1970-~2010, buyers thereafter Calculation of $/oz -> 10 k$ low end Demographics - No to Dent, will be inflationary Harry Dent : Overseas debt causes hyperinflation deflation most likely after crash 90 year dominant crash cycle (technology) : 1837, 1932, now year late due to stimulus 4 seasons cycle - population growth, peak in 2007, since 2007 US immigration-adjusted births down debt hasn't deflated yet 16T$ financial assets have to deflate 525T$ global financial assets -> 205+ T$ disappears (43% minimum!) by 2022 I we don't get deflation, I'm the dumbest person on Earth, will move to Mars Current gold bubble = Grat Financial Crisis 2007-10 Gold vs T-bonds in GFC, gold xame down after crash underway 90 year cycle hits after 80 y cycle T-bonds, not gold, was safe haven when it counted during crash, eventually goes down too Gold is THE best inflation hedge on Earth, but not good during deflation SP500 megaphone - down to 2100 (-47%) just as a start Decade+ ago Dent forecast 0% bond rates by 2022 buy 30 yeaT-bond or zero-coupons cryptos -in early stage compared to dot-com, projects95% crash BTC to 3 k$ Asians love gold - India most of all 30% short stocks, 30% bonds, maybe 30% gold? Gary Owen - questions (Q&A not active) you both say we'n a new Great Depression (Recession) Rickards - depressions are depressed growth relative to trend, can still have inflation I am projecting [slow growth, depression] my recent book I project deflation - I agree with Harry we are right at inflection point - inflation picks up 2022 quickly Dent - depressions always always involve eleveraging [debt, asset] bubbles slow workforce growth is deflationary Markets are on crack - would you listen to a crack addict? printing money - why won't printing money keep working? Dent - megaphone pattern is one of most reliable will Yellen dump 250 T$ quickly? China did worst money printing, US is best house in a bad neighborhood Rickards printing money doesn't create inflation, money velocity is key (psychological variable) Milton Freidman was right about everything except money velocity which is fluctuating don't understand Dent - declining workforce is inflationary, not deflationary deflate the debt by inflating the currency, eg end of WWII to 1980, gold goes up only 5 people in world understand currencies - 85% in US dollar (plus Euro) only measure of dollar is gold which has doubled post crash gold decline - due to traders margin calls need cash from liquid gold - very short window strong hands hold gold, which goes up after 30 days after buying at bottom Harry - people buying gold do so as inflation protection workforce decline - I invented this as inflation indicator Rickards - only two ways - deflate or inflate key thing is declining workforce, which drives wages and inflation when Harry says deeflate the debt - means defult (Harry agreed) vaccines - will they work, will it fix the economy? Rickards - not a vaccine, is genetic treatment, don't know long-term experiment suppresses symptons, doesn't cure, can still spread doesn't matter - psychological effects will be with us for 50 years, dead businesses, people afraid Dent - big shift is occuring, people are spending (as in Japan all the time) herd immunity eventually, but think collapse before then illusion of markets on crack Dent - East Asia is dying Rickard - how is declining force deflationary, not inflation "Tether" crypto is tied to dollar, greatest ponzi in history Rickard - US dollar IS a crypto-currency +-----+ Sean Allison - cryptos silver, gold, bitcoin - can make $ without owning it +-----+ My questions : - Will the Democrats have the same policies, or must they react to the "Wall Street versus Main Street" divergence? - Ray Dalio's study of history is nice, but David Fischer's 1996 "The Great Wave" on price [revolutions (rises), equibria (declines)] provides a far more thorough collection of [experience, thinking] over the last 600 years, with throw backs to ancient [Babylonia, Greece, Rome] (similar pricing behaviour, plus interest rates, wages etc). For example, hundreds of years ago people pointed out that [print, debase]ing of currency does NOT relate well to inflation, albeit it can be a factor under the right conditions (Dent has a theme like this). Are either of you familiar with these long-time economic (quantitative) studies? If so, do you have any comments? +--+ Not asked - Will the 10+ year interest rise continue as long as the US Fed pump still functions? - Under what conditions [gold, cryptos] behave [the same, differently]? Harry Dent encourages being prepared for possible market crash & deflation, as per Japan's example. - When will the Dent fund be available in [Canada,US]? (Dent's opening comment - in the next year) me to me - How do I convert BitCoin to cash? 08********08 #] 19Nov2020 CONFIRMATION: Dent vs Schiff Debate [ACCESS LINK] From: "Greg Owen" Date: Wed, November 18, 2020 11:01 am To: Bill@BillHowell.caHi Bill, Congratulations for securing your place to our very special event: The Great Heavyweight Championship of the World Bubble Burst DENT vs Gold Bug SCHIFF Friday, November 20th 10am AEDT (Sydney) Equivalent to: Thursday, November 19th 6pm EST (New York) Click here to join us LIVE. https://nz561.infusion-links.com/api/v1/click/6189037403635712/5206743689330688 This fiery debate could change your fortune. The outcome could have a lot of impact on your future wealth. Make sure you attend, it’s a unique opportunity to get your investment and wealth related questions answered. We’re expecting thousands of people to tune in to this debate due to the extensive mentions in the media, so we advise you join us a few minutes early. Here is the access link again. https://nz561.infusion-links.com/api/v1/click/4829748505739264/5206743689330688 See you there! Greg Owen 08&&&&&&&&08 My questions : see 14Nov2020 below Will the ongoing social engineering of the financial markets, including Mondern Monetary Theory influences, result in a major change in market trends, and if so, what do you thing the effects will be? Here I am thinking about the possible influence of the Federal Reserve after its formation in the early 1900's. 05-----05 Notes on presentation : Shawn Allison Australian broker licensed Options trading Institutional buying 90% of options Insider trading - people who know the [company, business] finviz - HYG high yield bonds move before stocks Warren Buffet TMC/GDP = market cap / GDP >115% is significantly over-valued, currently 173% 50-day Mving Average > ?, 80% of time market falls good chunk (50% of Australians) of employees live paycheck to paycheck 23% have no emergency savings 32G$ personal debt 1290$/month gambling SEC Form 4 submission on insider trading, within 2 days of insider trade 08********08 #] 20Oct2020 Harry's Take: The Coming Civil War in America: Do We Split Into 2 or 3 Countries? In Zero Hour, written in late 2016 just before Trump was elected, Andy Pancholi and I showed how the U.S. was in the greatest period of polarization since the Civil War—and then showed how this was happening around the globe. Of course, being two cycle guys, we showed a trio of long-term cycles pointing to just that: a 250-year Revolution Cycle, an 84-year Populist Cycle, and a 28-year Financial Crisis Cycle. Adding to that rare, long-term convergence of cycles was the 90-year Super Bubble/Great Reset Cycle, the worst cycle for financial asset crises and depressions. 08********08 #] 14Nov2020 Harry Dent: [U.S., world] economies over the next [12 months, 5 years, decade] webinar forecast of how the U.S. and world economies will unfold over the next 12 months, five years and decade Long-term bonds - Given your books and recent commentaries, this an area of interest to me, but I am fearful. You have one of the most thought-provoking concepts for what drives inflation (household formation when a generational cohort is [larger, smaller] than in the past). With Europe and Japan at negative nominal rates, and the US at negative real rates, it does seem plausible that US rates would go significantly lower over the next few years, giving strong returns for bonds, albeit perhaps not what tech investors want to see. However, I'm afraid of government policies, especially with a [socialist, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)] drive, and how rates may go up even in a strong deflationary environment. I don't expect more responsible spending will happen until AFTER a major crash forces reality, as financial responsibility doesn't seem to fit what voters now demand. Two generations ago, our academics knew that it was impossible to have stagnation and inflation together. Is it possible that the current generation will succeed in a similar manner, somehow coupling major deflation with much high [interests, inflation]? It sounds crazy, but perhaps we all are. Demographics - You've often commented on the "relative youthfulness" of US demographics compared to [Europe, Japan, China]. Do you expect any changes in the US-born birth-rate trend? Risks - You've commented on Tech vs Value rollover. Can you repeat what you expect to see if a major cr hits, in particular with respect to the risks of holdings in key value sectors such as [financials, energy, manufacturing, utilities] or other sectors, as compared to today's tech-mania? Financial asset inflation - Can continued government [cash, credit] expansion eventually lead to a [new, higher] long-term trend the apparent trend since ~1926? Here I am thinking that from just after the Civil War until 1926, financial asset pricing seemed stable, but then the long term financial asset pricing assumed an upwards trend to thent day. Did the establishment of the Federal Reserve (?1913?) have anything to do with that, and will the current mindset become entrenched? I'm thinking of a situation that is less than hyper-inflation, but much stronger than the 1926-2000 or 2020 period? Potential long-term decline of the US in an international context - From an historical perspective, it would be normal to see a roll-over in leadeship from the US, perhaps not initially to a single dominant power, but to a collection of nations that are able to manage themselves well. But a massive crash in the US might be a catalyst for changing international perceptions, and money finding a much broader set of homes? Will China especially be seen as a more stable, reasonable investment environment, if the Communists can "behave"? Will the remaining areas of US leadership [finance, science, tech] take a hard hit from more competitive regions? As an example, my priority hobby since 1988 has been neural network research. The changes there are stunning, and China seems dominant in many "hard" areas. 08********08 #] 04Nov2020 Harry Dent November report - US long-term bonds are safest harbour India - Bombay Sensex index - Harry Dent "the strongest stock index in Asia" iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) As good as that simple TLT play is, I would prefer to buy 30-year Treasury Bonds now that the spread over the 10-year has gone from 20-30 basis points to 80+ basis points. That not only gives a substantially higher (but still low) yield, it also offers a bigger deflationary play as rates fall to near zero on the 10-year bond. These rates even could go negative, as many other major government bonds already have. They could go as low as 0.5% or so for 30-year bonds. In this deflationary scenario, that could take your gains to 40%+ in one of the safest investments on earth. Yes, they are way less volatile than gold. And don’t even think about Bitcoin at this earliest and most-volatile stage… its heyday will come later into this crash. If Bitcoin goes back down to its 2018 low near $3,000 or especially to its bubble origin around $1,350, that will be a screaming long-term buy signal. But that is not likely to happen until late 2021 to late 2022, well into or at the bottom of the great crash ahead. 08********08 #] 01Oct2020 Dent -> I watch [Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter, Ray Dalio] Dent - Forget hyperinflation, no correlation with massive money printing.pdf, Ray Dalio is on my preferred list of people generating long-term economic research who are worth following, along with Dr. Lacy Hunt, Steve Keene, and Robert Prechter. There was a sharp surge in printing, especially in Japan, but inflation kept falling! That hurt the inflation/hyperinflation argument that gold was “bubbling” on. That’s a major point of this article: It’s very hard to create inflation during the already-deflationary winter season, especially when the money of QE is injected directly into the financial asset system and not into the banking, business, and consumer economy. You get financial asset price inflation, not inflation in consumer prices! The most recent, massive surge ever, into the second quarter of 2020, saw NO rise in inflation! What does that tell you? How do you explain that… gold bugs? >> Bill Howell - financial asset inflation!!! He is saying the same. Figure : Global-oriented S&P 500 correlates best with top 3 combined QE [USA, Europe, Japan] 08********08 #] 16Jun2020 Harry's Take June 16,2020, Zombe companies /home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/key stuff/200618 Harry Dent, Dion Raboin of Axios Markets - Zombie companies explode since 2008.jpg /home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/key stuff/200618 Harry Dent, Dion Rabouin, Arbor Research - Zombie company employment by sector.jpg 08********08 #] 15Jun2020 Harry Dent newsletter >> great graphs of corporate profitability, global liquidity vs SP500 level I simply do not see the economy getting back to normal by year end, and I see the business and loan failures—despite massive stimulus—resulting in a deeper downturn into 2021 that will bottom on four of my most critical cycles together (90-, 80-, 40- and 20-year), in late 2022 for stocks and 2023 for the economy. This has been my bottom target for the worst of the winter season since 1988, when I first discovered The Spending Wave and the 80-Year Four Season Cycle. My best forecast is: after the current correction plays out into as late as early July, we get one more rally that goes a bit higher on the Nasdaq into either late August or October—and may even retest the highs on the S&P 500. Then we get a second longer, deeper crash like in 1930–1932 that takes the Dow to somewhere near 5,000! # enddoc