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21Apr2021 market news

"... History never repeats itself, but it rhymes. ..."

Table of Contents

Special comments

83year detrended SP500

In April, on an 83-year trend (see above) : The 83y detrended SP500 (blue dots) is plotted by a TradingView PineScript program that I adapated from Kıvanç Özbilgiç's "Turtle Trade PineScript" :
log(Fibonacci levels of SP500) are shown as [horizontal, dashed, grey] lines.

Oncolytics - possible bull wedge formation? :

For just over a year, Oncolytics seems to be establishing a bull wedge pattern. Compare the heavy black horizontal line to the rising Fibonacci=0.618 line (between green and blue bands), anndep an eye on the trading volumes.

While a bull wedge is NOT the most reliable of trading patterns, it is still worth noting. 23Nov2020, from QuantGuy on TradingView.com :

@Bill_Howell, A bull wedge (aka 'ascending wedge') is characterized by a horizontal upper bound and a lower bound of a trendline with positive slope. If you have increasing volume while the volatility consolidates you can expect a breakout. If the volume recedes, it could breakdown or keep ranging.

The wedge currently "closes" in Dec2021. In [2019, 2020], Oncolytics also temporarily spiked to yearly highs in [Nov, Dec], with secondary peaks (more or less) in the Mar-May timeframe.

Don't put too much confidence into this. As you can see in the graph from Jun2017 through Jul2018, Oncolytics also seemed to be setting up a bull wedge, but that fell apart prematurely. The two highest peaks over those two years were in the spring, while the third highest happened in a Dec.

Regular [1,6] month market views

(to see a full-scale image in your browser, right-click on an image, then select "view image")

International market indexes [SP500, NASDAQ, SHCOMP, 10y T-bill] :

In the 2004-2021 graph, notice that the Shanghai composite index, SHCOMP (dark green curve), has not spiked to the levels of the [2007, 2015] bubbles, but remains near levels of the 2018 peak. For some time news reports suggest that the Chinese government been intentionally cooling the market excesses in order to avoid their problems of the past. If so, this is the complete opposite of the American [market, politics]s. On the short term, is this diverting international cash to the American market, as Chinese markets look relatively weak on the short term? Is it one component helping to reduce the value of the Yuan in USD, which helps to maintain Chinese competitiveness?

On the mid-to-long term, will international investors favour investments in a [stable, responsible, wealth preserving] policy environment of the world's most competitive large economy, and perhaps soon the world largest economy? On a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis less debt, is China already the world's largest economy?

Since 2012-2015, have the Chinese already been the dominant region for the most advanced computing area : Computational Intelligence (CI - not Artificial Intelligence (AI), as that was the old, limited stuff). That is suggested by the portion of Chinese and Chinese expatriate articles in both neural network scientific journals that I am subscribed to, as well as papers in the World Congress on Computational Intelligence (WCCI), and the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). Also VERY prominant are Chinese (and Russian, Indian, etc) fixes of massive screw-ups by [European, American] scientists across all areas of science, in particularly the [polically-correct, high-public-profile] sciences. It almost seems like the vast majority of breakthrough thinking is now by amateur scientists and scientists, who are leading t way now that access to information is much better (although still expensive for most journals).

I think that it is a BAD idea to overlay market charts with curve fits and trading patterns, at least until an initial "naked" analysis is completed. The superimposed curves and patterns are corrupting, and destroy the eye's ability to see what is really there, as opposed to what mainstream consensus [concept, theory, belief]s will maniulate you into believing. Curves and patterns are very important tools for arm-waving and yapping, which is what everyone likes to do anyways, and is their primary basis for trusting the messenger (kind of like the fire-side yarns of hunting or war parties), unless people are stupid enough to judge sophisticated apes by their suit and tie.

These plots show a polynomial fit (solid curve), with [+,-] one standard deviation, and [min, max] over the fitted range. RicardoSantos' TradingView PineScript was adapted to do this :

1-month view 6-month view

Interest rates, currency [DXY,CNYUSD] :

I like to think of the 10-year T-bill rate as a "thermometer for all markets". It's boring, so it's easy to foget about until seemingly tiny moves in the rates send stock investors into a tizzy, as has happened since early August, although it took the stock markets until early 2021 to really wake up. I suspect that Robert Prechter (before most o modern analysts, and certainly the academics) and Harry Dent may have it right when they say that the US Feal Reserve can't really contrates. Prechter has long pointed out convincingly that the Fed invariably FOLLOWS the markets, and jumps into the game when rates have already turned. Perhaps "now it's different" given the unbelievable cash infusions into the market since the start of the covid-19 pandemic, but time will tell, and perhaps side-effects will also be off the scale.
1-month view 6-month view

crypto [BTC,ETH,COIN], 10y T-bill :

1-month view 6-month view

USOIL, Canadian [XEG ETF,CNQ,IMO,SU], 10y T-bill :

1-month view 6-month view


1-month view 6-month view

(to see a full-scale photo in your browser, right-click on a photo, then select "view image")

21Ap2021 initial posting

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