Home Neural Nets Projects Software programming & code Professional & Resume Publications & reports
Howell-produced videos Blogs Cool stuff Crazy themes and stories Hosted sub-sites Neil Howell's Art
major (1 active)
MindCode neural network Bill Lucas - Universal Force Randell Mills- hydrinos IceBreaker unchained (WWII) "Hope-to-do-soon" projects
Failures of thinking : Lies, Damned Lies, and Scientists Climate - Kyoto Premise fraud General relativity is a turkey? Quantum mechanics is a fools paradise? Robert Prechter - Socionomics
Economics & Markets : S&P500 1872-2020, 83y trend S&P500 P/E ratios vs Treasury rates Cryptos versus [currencies, rates] Robert Prechter - Socionomics Stephen Puetz - Greatest of cycles
Pandemics, health, Sun : Astro-correlates of health Influenza Corona virus Suicide
Life & [Pre,]-history : Civilisations and sun Steve Yaskell - sun & history Anthony Peratt -petroglyphs Galactic rays and evolution Stephen Puetz - Greatest of cycles
Astronomy, Earth, Climate : Ivanka Charvatova - solar inertial motion Climate and sun Solar modeling and forecasting SAFIRE - electric sun experiment Stephen Puetz - The Greatest of cycles
25Nov2020 This website has been substantially revamped, with changes to [page, menu, content, link]s. There will be problems with links - probably 10 or so webPages of 187 total still have to be corrected after coding changes and my mistakes messed them up.
Many of my web-postings will illustrate my [errors, inconsistencies, ignorance] and some may be upsetting. But I prefer to be seen as a fool than something that I am not? Huh?..., whatever...

Canadian Solar Forecasting Initiative

Two Canadian physicists left their USA jobs in the early 2000's to return as Canada research chairs in the early to mid-2000's, thereby joining the one and only full time Canadian solar physicist at the time, Ken Tapping of the National Research Council's Hertzberg Institute for Astrophysics. With considerable pushing from Tapping, a "Canadian solar physics community" has beensteadily built up, with the annual "Canadian solar physics workshop" being a key event to bring the community together.

Following ongoing funding cuts (what do you expect for one of the most politically incorrect areas of science?), perhaps the best hope for this community is a proposal to participate in the French Picard solar physics initiative.

Since ~2003 I have been very interested in solar modeling and forecasting. This initially began with the issue of non-CO2 or Greeen House Gas (GHG) drivers for climate, but it is actually very interesting from the point of chaos theory, the application of Computational Intelligence tools, and the influence of astronomy on many other processes. Moreover, advances in new techniques such as helio-seismology has had quite an impact. Canada has only 3 scientists specialised in solar physics (perhaps more dabble in it), and the funding is atrociously low compared to the importance of the subject... (I'm not a solar physicist – I just compare the huge sums in climate change funding for much less relevant pursuits in that area, and see that things are way out of wack). It seems to me that we still have a lot to learn from the sun, even at its simple level, but even more importantly with respect to our very basic tools, approaches and philosophy of tackling "modestly complex systems". The solar physicist beat me up for saying that, but it's still my guess that evolutionary or "intentional" systems that react to their environment are far more complex mathematically. Of course, I have no basis or proof for that gut feel.

I'll gradually fill in material as time goes on. Some of the major areas are:

1. Solar models and forecasts, but broadening this to include solar system orbitals, Earth axis precession, geomagnetics, galactic rays, etc etc
2. Astronomical drivers of Terrestrial processes - some of these are covered on other web-pages as indicated.
  1. Climate Change
  2. Pipelines, electrical distribution grids, cellphones, satellite longevity and communications
  3. Pandemics, health, and the Sun - Based on work by Tapping, Mathias, and Surkan, this section describes the strong "solar signal" observable in the timing of some pandemics, as well as possible radiation effects either from the sun or galactic in origin.
  4. Helio- and geo- magnetic fields - space weather forecasting etc etc I won't get a chance to look at this any time soon. For now refer to websites that will be put at some time in the references below...
  5. Ozone layer variations (comparison of astronomical influences with chloro-fluorocarbons, dusts etc)

30Nov-01Dec06 Canadian solar physics workshop, Montreal

13Oct06 Solar Modeling and Forecasting Presentations that I arranged for 13Oct06 in Ottawa. Speakers:

11May06 micro-Workshop on Canadian Solar Forecasting which I set up through Ian Clarke at the University of Ottawa, Geology Department. Speakers:

References: selected articles, mostly related to solar and climate
  1. Ken Tapping "Modeling solar irradiance: values and uncertainties" - presentation to the Engineering Institute of Canada's Climate Change Technology Conference, Ottawa, 12May06 http://www.ccc2006.ca/eng/index.html (not published yet as of May06)
  2. Julio Valdes, Graham Bonham-Carter "Time dependent neural network models for detecting changes of state in Earth and planetary processes" Proceedings of IJCNN 2005, International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. Montreal, paper #1439, pp????-????, 31 July – 4 August 2005.
  3. C1ay "Solar Cycle 25 could be one of the weakest in centuries" 11May2006 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversion/index.php/t94927.html

Directory of available files for this webpage:

Updates: split out and expanded from previous webpage 04May07, original 06Oct06

Directory of available files for this webpage

Copyright © 2007 through 2020
All website content is owned by William Neil Howell of Alberta, Canada, except when it isn't.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify Howell's content under either:
GNU Public License The GNU Free Documentation License; with no Invariant Sections, Front-Cover Texts, or Back-Cover Texts.
Creative Commons License Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.
It is expected that reusers of this web-site will:
  • Acknowledge William Neil Howell and/or the specific author of web-site content,
  • Provide a link or reference back to the specific web-page carrying the content that is being used,
  • Allow any modifications made to the content to also be reused under the terms of either of the two standard licences (GNU or Creative Commons).