/media/bill/SWAPPER/Climate active/El Nino SO/ENSO notes.txt
www.BillHowell.ca  11Sep2020 initial







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14Sep2020

Kenneth L. Fisher, Meir Statman 2000 "Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts, The frailty of forecasting" Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2000
Fisher, Statman 2000 Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts, The frailty of forecasting.pdf

Richard Freeman 27Oct2000 "The Quality Adjustment Method: How Statistical Fakery Wipes Out Inflation" Executive Intelligence Review
Freeman 27Oct2000 The Quality Adjustment Method, How Statistical Fakery Wipes Out Inflation.html

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13Sep2020  I want fibonacci levels on 
1951-2020 SP500 index, 83yr-detrended log ratio.png
qnial> Fibbers  :=  0.000 0.382 1.000 1.618
0. 0.382 1. 1.618
qnial> Fibs  :=  1 + Fibbers
1. 1.382 2. 2.618
qnial> 1 EACHRIGHT / Fibs
1. 0.723589 0.5 0.381971

so full tic list is :  0.382 0.5 0.724 1. 1.382 2. 2.618 

http://lowrank.net/gnuplot/tics-e.html
gnuplot> set ytics (1,2,5,10,20,50)
>> I'll try this...


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12Sep2020  SP500 data 1928-2020 yahoo finance, 83yr-detrended log

what was formula that I derived for SP500 when doing earlier TradingView graphs?
see "/home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/Howell projections/SP500 Fibonacci mirror comments.txt"
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13Jun2020

SP500(year)@(Fibonacci=0 line)) 
   =    10^[slope(log(SP500)/year) * (year - 1971)] * SP500(1971) 
   =    10^[0.0317*(year - 1971)] * 92.9
   Note : the slope and spread had to be adjusted due to small errors 
          (inluding x-axis distortion of TradingView chart).
Fib_spread 
   =  log(SP500@(Fibonacci=1 line)) - log(SP500@(Fibonacci=0 line))
   =  0.2320 logs = a multiplicative factor of 1.7106 
   This is up the vertical axis, not perpendicular to the (Fibonacci=0) line.


http://www.billhowell.ca/economics, markets/S&P500 with Fibonacci mirror 1872-2020.jpg
http://www.billhowell.ca/economics, markets/SP500 Fibonacci mirror measurements.ods

/home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/Howell projections/S&P500 with Fibonacci mirror 1872-2020.jpg
+-----+
>> use this!

/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/El Nino SO/SP500 data 1928-2020 yahoo finance, 83yr-detrended log.ods
saved only year (decimal), openining price ratio to 83-year log detrended
/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/El Nino SO/SP500 data 1928-2020 yahoo finance, 83yr-detrended log.dat

/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/El Nino SO/1951-2020 SP500 index, 83yr-detrended log gnuplot script.plt


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11Sep2020

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/index.html
-> Atmospheric/Ocean Timeseries
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/

DataSet 1948-2020 monthly averages, anomalies : 
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/climateindices/corr.pl?tstype1=1&custname1=&custtitle1=&tstype2=0&custname2=&custtitle2=&year1=1948&year2=2020&itypea=0&y1=&y2=&plotstyle=0&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&anom=1&climo1_yr1=1948&climo1_yr2=2020&climo2_yr1=&climo2_yr2=&Submit=Calculate+Results
data.192.34.223.52.254.20.44.39

in "/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/El Nino SO/" : 
1951-2020 El Nino monthly averages.dat
1951-2020 El Nino monthly averages gnuplot script.plt




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