"$d_PROJECTS""Investments/Puetz newsletter/3_Puetz definitions, chart explanations.txt" www.BillHowell.ca 16Mar2019 initial Trade Credit Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Serious Delinquency of Non-Agency RMBS Loans - many homeowners don't pay ANY mortgage [interest, principle] Feb2018 25% US overall, numbers for 10 worst states, not including California due to re-zeroing dates! Exchange rates US Dollar (Federal Reserve Trade-Weighted Index) Interest Rates LIBOR: London Inter-Bank Offer Rate [1, 3, 6, 12] months LIBOR Rates - 30 Year Historical Chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1433/historical-libor-rates-chart Inverted Yields? 10-year Treasury minus 1 year LIBOR Stock market Indexes Dow Jones [Industrials, Transportation] Russell 2000 - ?mid-sized cap? S&P Global Stock Market Index, excluding USA shares Market Trends, health ECRI: Leading Economic Index Hedge Fund Research: Market Directional Index US Stock Market: Composite Advance-Decline Line https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:ad_line The Advance-Decline Line (AD Line) is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances, which is the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. Net Advances is positive when advances exceed declines and negative when declines exceed advances. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net Advances, rising when it is positive and falling when it is negative. Chartists can use Net Advances to plot the AD Line for the index and compare it to the performance of the actual index. The AD Line should confirm an advance or a decline with similar movements. Bullish or bearish divergences in the AD Line signal a change in participation that could foreshadow a reversal. Bullish - higher highs, Bullish - lower lows, some quirks!! (read article) Composite Arms Index: [10 day, 3-Year] average https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/arms.asp Arms Index - TRIN Definition and Application What is the Arms Index - TRIN The Arms Index, also called the Short-Term Trading Index (TRIN) is a technical analysis indicator that compares the number of advancing and declining stocks (AD Ratio) to advancing and declining volume (AD volume). It is used to gauge overall market sentiment. Richard W. Arms, Jr. invented it in 1967, and it measures the relationship between market supply and demand. It serves as a predictor of future price movements in the market, primarily on an intraday basis. It does this by generating overbought and oversold levels, which indicate when the index (and the majority of stocks in it) will change direction. Many analysts believe that the Arms Index provides a bullish signal when it's less than 1.0, since there's greater volume in the average up stock than the average down stock. In fact, some analysts have found that the long-term equilibrium for the index is below 1.0, potentially confirming that there is a bullish bias to the stock market. On the other hand, a reading of greater than 1.0 is typically seen as a bearish signal, since there's greater volume in the average down stock than the average up stock. The farther away from 1.00 the Arms Index value is, the greater the contrast between buying and selling on that day. A value that exceeds 3.00 indicates an oversold market and that bearish sentiment is too dramatic. This could mean an upward reversal in prices/index is coming. Conversely, a TRIN value that dips below 0.50 may indicate an overbought market and that bullish sentiment is overheating. Stock market leading indicators CBOE Call Volume as % of all Options: 20-Day Chicago Board Options Exchange - [equities [US, Europe], US Options, Foreign exchange, US Futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs)] RSI Relative Strength Index [Dow Industrials, Russel] [10-week] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp What Is The Relative Strength Index - RSI? The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI is that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition. Commodities CBOT Chicago Board of Trade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Board_of_Trade On July 12, 2007, the CBOT merged with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to form the CME Group. CBOT and three other exchanges (CME, NYMEX, and COMEX) now operate as designated contract markets (DCM) of the CME Group. quotes : https://www.ino.com/ Cryptocurrencies, Currencies, Dollar Rates, Energy, Euro Rates, Food and Fiber, Grains and Oilseeds Indexes, Interest Rates, Livestock and Meats, Metals, Other Asian Currencies, Other European Currencies, Other World Currencies, Real Estate, Weather Goldman Sachs Commodity Price Index CRB Commodity Price Index - mostly agriculture Weighted average of LME Metal Prices (London Metals Exchange?) https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/gann/ Gann The trading techniques by WD Gann are widely seen as innovative and are still studied and used by traders today. He used angles and various geometric constructions. Gann angles divide time and price into proportionate parts and are often used to predict areas of support and resistance, key tops and bottoms and future price moves. The method is based on the notion that markets rotate from angle to angle and when an angle is broken, price moves towards the next one. Several angles together make up a Gann Fan. The angles are drawn from the main tops and bottoms while the chart is scaled appropriately to ensure the market has a square relationship. The most noteworthy angle is the 1x1 or the 45° angle, which represents one unit of price for one unit of time. A change in the direction of price is expected when the market reaches an equal unit of time and price, up or down. TradingView has a smart drawing tool called the Gann Fan to apply several Gann angles to the chart and other tools like the Gann Box and the Gann Square to visually identify key levels on a chart. >> Cool, intuitive ***************** 16Mar2019 CBOT Futures Prices https://www.ino.com/ Market Last Change Crude Oil 58.40 -0.21 Natural Gas 2.791 -0.064 Corn 373.00 2.75 Soybeans 909.25 10.75 30yr Bond 146.90625 0.71875 10yr Note 122.687500 0.234375 NY Gold 1300.5 +7.1 NY Silver 15.220 0.119 Emini S&P 2813.25 6.00 Emini Nasdaq 7272.25 32.50 Emini Dow 25785 +75 # enddoc