#]
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#] "$d_web"'Projects - mini/PuetzUWS/0_Puetz financial notes.txt' - ???
# www.BillHowell.ca 28Mar2020 initial
# view in text editor, using constant-width font (eg courier), tabWidth = 3
pdf2text newletters, search newsletters with a term, see :
"$d_bin"'pdftotext_archive_searchDir.sh'
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# Table of Contents, generate with :
# $ grep "^#]" "$d_web"'Projects - mini/PuetzUWS/0_Puetz financial notes.txt' | sed "s/^#\]/ /"
#
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"$d_web"'Projects - mini/PuetzUWS/0_Puetz financial notes.txt' - ???
05Oct2022 Puetz stock market cycles [1.17, 1.41, 3.5] year - are these numbers constantly changing?
07May2021
09Apr2021 bash commends : list of Puetz newsletters, search for a term, etc
25Mar2021 UWS recalibrated to the markets
28Feb2021 UCT_2021-01-27 Easy Credit, Dependencies, and Inflation.pdf
18Apr2020 Peutz no longer believes in 1929-style crash, as we've gone past that
28Mar2020 Puetz newsletter - postings to my [webste, Facebook]
11Mar2019 Puetz & Borchardt emails to Stephen [Yaskell, Howell]
25Nov2015 Puetz etal Evidence of Synchronous, Decadal to Gyr Year Cycles in [Geology, Genetic, Astronomy]
24Nov2015 - highly cited :
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# Setup, ToDos,
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#] ??Sep2023
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#] ??Sep2023
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#] ??Sep2023
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#] 25Sep2023 Revised Scenarios for a Crash
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#] 25Mar2023 Monetary noose tightens as market breadth deteriorates
#] Prescient!: last newsletter suggested bank failures were coming!?!!!
"... The last letter discussed the possibility of a banking crisis soon erupting. That same day (March 8), Silvergate Bank (California) failed. Then, just two days later (March 10), massive unforeseen withdrawals of deposits from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) forced regulators to close that bank. This was the largest US bank failure since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. Then two days later, regulators closed Signature Bank (New York). On March 17, the contagion spread.
..."
"... On the surface, the market might seem stable and safe because the Dow Jones Industrials (bottom of page 2) have mrecovered considerably from the late-September low. Furthermore, the Dow remains reasonably close to its mrecord-high recorded in early-2022. However, a rigorous inspection of market internals paints a far gloomier mpicture. The S&P 500 index (top of page 3) also rebounded from its late-September low, but with less vigor than mthe Dow. Importantly, during the past five months, the key NASDAQ Bank Stock index (middle of page 3) failed mto rally significantly, and the index is now on the verge of penetrating below a triple-bottom from May, mSeptember, and December of last year. The poor action in bank stocks supports the thesis recently presented in mthese letters – that the country is on the verge of another banking crisis, perhaps, even more damaging than the m2008-09 banking crisis. The deteriorating technical outlook is also apparent in the Composite Advance-Decline mline (bottom of page 3), which rebounded measurably from October to February, but has given up more than half of its countertrend gains during the past month.
On the monetary front, the indicators are as bearish as ever. The yield-curve remains ominously inverted. The myield-spread between 10-year Treasuries and 1-year LIBOR (top of page 4) serves as one of the many indicators mdepicting the magnitude of the inversion. Yet, the inversion has done little to dissuade yield-seeking investors mfrom aggressively buying junk bonds – which is perhaps the riskiest class of investments in which otherwise mconservative investors widely participate. The complacency amongst junk bond investors is seen from the mTreasury-bond/junk-bond yield ratio (middle of page 4). When the ratio exceeds 0.45, as it is now and also did in m2010, 2011, 2014, and 2018, then junk bonds become prone to massive selling from any kind of shock. Because mthe global economy remains highly vulnerable to economic recession (or worse) and the health of the banking msystem remains inexorably linked to economic activity, junk bonds currently offer limited upside in all feasible mrisk/reward scenarios. Investors were recently willing to look beyond the economic chasm and purchase both minvestment grade and junk bonds, while operating on the premise that the Federal Reserve will soon begin mreducing interest rates as the economy weakens. Anticipation of looming Fed easing briefly caused long-term mrates to fall a month ago, while short-term rates, as with the 1-year Treasury note yield (bottom of page 4), held msteady. However, as investors now increasingly realize that the Fed will persist or even intensify its tightening mpolicies, gloom is again returning to the credit and equity markets.
..."
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#] 05Oct2022 Puetz stock market cycles [1.17, 1.41, 3.5] year - are these numbers constantly changing?
I thought he had 2.35? - nyet - last newsletter 25Sep2022 he put [1.17, 3.5, 10.5] years OK
"... On October 9, the eclipse, lunar, seasonal, 1.17-year, 1.41-year, and 3.5-year cycles will all be synchronously aligned in down-phases. ..."
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#] 07May2021 Stupid Yellen & another women economist - socialists can't see shit (labor shortage)
"$d_PROJECTS""Investments/Puetz newsletter/UCT_2021-05-06 Market cycles converge toward a major top.pdf"
While business owners complain about a labor shortage, the policymakers who legislated and incentivized the current set of "stay at home" programs, seem less concerned. For instance, the May 6 CNBC article states: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has cautioned privately against overreacting, according to the Washington Post... Yellen argued more time and data are needed before assuming there is a problem [with finding workers] in the economy. [Likewise] Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute, doesn’t believe there is a widespread labor shortage. For one, wages aren’t rising rapidly, which indicates a tight labor market and job growth is booming, she said in a recent op-ed in the Initiative for Policy Dialogue. 'Employers post their too-low wages, can’t find workers to fill jobs at that pay level, and claim they’re facing a labor shortage,' she wrote. Given the ubiquity of this dynamic, I often suggest that whenever anyone says, 'I can’t find the workers I need,’ she should really add, 'at the wages I want to pay.'"
Yet, these views are primarily coming from liberal policymakers who are far removed from the real-world problems that businesses face when attempting to hire workers, as the CNBC article states: "Many small businesses argue that they can’t pay higher wages if they aren’t making money. Already, 28% of small business owners reported raising compensation in March, according to the NFIB survey. 'If I could pay every single person in this place more to come back and feel safe I would,' said Glassman, who just gave his staff raises. His bartenders and servers, for instance, make $15 an hour before tips. He had a hard time finding a custodian at $17 an hour and dishwasher at $16 per hour. 'I absolutely would love to give everyone a massive raise to feel more safe and more loved,' he added. 'Right now, we don’t know where that money comes from.'"
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#] 09Apr2021 bash commends : list of Puetz newsletters, search for a term, etc
see : "$d_bin"'Puetz newsletter search.sh'
$ find "$d_PROJECTS"'Investments/Puetz newsletter/' -type f -name "*" | tr \\n \\0 | xargs -0 -IFILE grep --with-filename --line-number "markets" "FILE" >"$d_web"'Projects - mini/PuetzUWS/0_Puetz newsltr TblOfContents.txt'
>> doesn't "reach into" body of pdf for search
for pdftotext conversion for searching body text, see :
"$d_bin""pdfToText directory.sh" - convert pdfs in a directory to text, same fnames
$ find "$d_PROJECTS""Investments/Puetz newsletter/pdfToText/" -type f -name "*" | tr \\n \\0 | xargs -0 -IFILE grep --with-filename --line-number "eclipse" "FILE" | sed 's#.*\(.*\)/#\1#' | sort
UCT_2018-12-21 The Grinch Arrives.pdf.txt:51:eclipse cycle also turning down recently, the prospects for a crash during the next two weeks is exceedingly high.
UCT_2019-01-13 Banking Crisis Looms, inverted yield.pdf.txt:120:In terms of the options-expiration cycle and the eclipse cycle, Wednesday (January 16) is a key point to be short
UCT_2019-06-08 Recessionary Pressures Build.pdf.txt:79:lower, and it will become progressively bearish as the summer progresses. The eclipse cycle is just now turning
UCT_2019-06-08 Recessionary Pressures Build.pdf.txt:81:solar eclipse), and the second key date is on July 16 (a lunar eclipse). If history repeats, with a 6-week topping
UCT_2019-08-14 Imminent Crash, -ve bond yields Germany, Japan, France.pdf.txt:127:and the seasonal and eclipse cycles are now in intense down-phases. During bear markets, investors typically sell
UCT_2019-09-11 Looming Recession and Stock Market Crash, UWS 1.17, 3.5, 10.5 y cycles.pdf.txt:23:the peaks. The next low is projected for the end of October. The seasonal cycle is also in its most intense downphase. Likewise, the eclipse cycle will bottom by mid-October, and the lunar cycle peaks with the full moon on
UCT_2020-03-08 Panic phase of crash is just beginning, banks down.pdf.txt:44:From a cyclical perspective, (a) the full moon on Monday, (b) the final down-phase of the current eclipse cycle, and
UCT_2020-05-21 Rampant Mania and Delusion.pdf.txt:44:ominous, (b) along with the seasonal cycle being bearish, the eclipse cycle peaks tomorrow, which will turn the
UCT_2020-06-06 Buying Panic on Climactic Volume, UWS 2016-2022.pdf.txt:126:components include the seasonal cycle and the eclipse cycle. The lunar eclipse on Friday might be the key factor in
UCT_2020-06-06 Buying Panic on Climactic Volume, UWS 2016-2022.pdf.txt:141:crash. An incredibly flawed employment report sparked the stampede, a lunar eclipse revved up animal spirits,
UCT_2020-06-06 Buying Panic on Climactic Volume, UWS 2016-2022.pdf.txt:15:that followed the release of Friday's employment report – happening at the same time as a lunar eclipse. But instead
UCT_2020-06-06 Buying Panic on Climactic Volume, UWS 2016-2022.pdf.txt:16:of the wolfs howling at the eclipsed moon, it was bears groaning in pain and bulls dancing with glee. Wall Street is
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:109:late in the eclipse cycle, about 3 weeks after the Day-30 full moon. Then, in 2008, a financial panic occurred 1 year
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:113:than an outright crash), the moves coincided with a typical eclipse cycle top (middle of page 10). The late-January
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:114:peak came within days of the Day-0 lunar eclipse, and the March 2018 selloff began near the time of the Day-30
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:115:full moon. This brings the analysis to the present. The Day-0 penumbral lunar eclipse (June 5) coincided with a rare
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:118:are developing with banking stocks, and most other indices lag far behind NASDAQ (bottom of page 10). The Day30 penumbral lunar eclipse (today, July 5) should coincide with the final top. As generally happens when hordes of
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:88:In addition to normal seasonal weakness, the 14-month cycle and the eclipse cycle are just moving into bearish
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:89:phases. The eclipse cycle is especially relevant. After re-analyzing the cycle's long market-related history, my ideas
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:90:of how it operates are slightly changed. The new focus is on full moons before and after a solar eclipse. Full moons
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:91:in this timeframe are either a total lunar eclipse, a partial lunar eclipse, or a penumbral or ~ penumbral lunar eclipse.
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:92:These "eclipse-like full moons" generally coincide with times when markets reverse, whereas all other full moons
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:94:eclipses with green up-arrows at market lows and red down-arrows at market highs. In the charts, Day-0 is a full
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:95:moon before a solar eclipse, Day-30 is a full moon after a solar eclipse, and other vertical gridlines indicate other
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:97:The eclipse-like full moons in July-August 1982 (top of page 7), May-June 1984 (middle of page 7), and December
UCT_2020-07-05 Quadruple Whammy, UWS 2016-2021.pdf.txt:99:opposite way – with eclipse-like full moons occurring at major tops that led to great crashes and panics. For instance,
UCT_2020-10-14 Final Buying Panic, A Secondary Top.pdf.txt:22:time for a crash. From that perspective, caution is warranted. However, from the perspective of the lunar and eclipse
UCT_2020-10-29 Breakdown from 6-week Topping Pattern.pdf.txt:46:break crash culminating at a point well below the March lows. A final interesting point is that the eclipse cycle is
UCT_2020-10-29 Breakdown from 6-week Topping Pattern.pdf.txt:48:the time of a full moon 1 month before a lunar eclipse – exactly as we have with the October 31 full moon this year!
UCT_2020-11-29 Expanding the Financial Bubble by Changing the Rules, UWS [1.4, 3.5]yr.pdf.txt:69:page 7) and the 3.5-year cycle (bottom of page 7). Also, the eclipse cycle might play a key role in timing the
UCT_2020-11-29 Expanding the Financial Bubble by Changing the Rules, UWS [1.4, 3.5]yr.pdf.txt:70:expected crash – with today's lunar eclipse being two weeks into the down phase of the current cycle and the next
UCT_2020-11-29 Expanding the Financial Bubble by Changing the Rules, UWS [1.4, 3.5]yr.pdf.txt:71:lunar eclipse (May 26) coinciding with the next potential UWS top. Because stocks are very overbought, some type
UCT_2020-12-28 Transformation of Monetary Structure, UWS 2016-2023.pdf.txt:119:Scenario 1: The most bearish phase of the eclipse cycle begins with the full moon on December 29. This also
UCT_2021-02-28 Easy Credit, Dependencies, and Inflation.pdf.txt:150:a final top around April 15 before a severe decline begins. The eclipse cycle indicates the next top will arrive on
UCT_2021-02-28 Easy Credit, Dependencies, and Inflation.pdf.txt:152:indicates the next major top is due on June 30. The "panic phase" of the eclipse cycle begins on May 26, falling
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:34:Scenario 1: Solar and lunar eclipses come in pairs, separated by two weeks. During the 5 ½ month eclipse cycle,
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:35:there is primarily one scenario to consider when a solar eclipse precedes a lunar eclipse: a market top develops 4
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:36:weeks before the solar eclipse, and the panic phase of the crash begins 6 weeks later (at the time of a lunar eclipse).
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:37:However, next month the lunar eclipse precedes the solar eclipse by two weeks. Because of this, two possibilities
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:39:26 lunar eclipse. Then after a steep selloff (10% or more) and a partial rebound, the panic phase of the expected
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:40:crash begins around the time of the May 26 lunar eclipse. This crash scenario fits well with the early-May peaks of
UCT_2021-04-09 Market Cycles and a 100-year High.pdf.txt:43:10 solar eclipse. Stocks then partially recover for two weeks, followed by the panic phase of the crash beginning at
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#] 25Mar2021 UWS recalibrated to the markets
&&&&&&&&
emto Puetz
Subject : Market newsletter - great work
As always, I enjoy your great work and insights. This month's detailed look at the UWS 1.47& 4.2 cycles is especially interesting food for thought for timing. Actually, timing is not hugely relevant to me - I'm too chicken and have been dominantly in "cash is trash" for most of the year, with occasional jumps-in-and-out for minor positions.
You mention deflation only briefly this month, whereas you have often stressed that risk in detail. Your explicits thoughts on [inflation versus deflation, timing thereof, subtle differences in analysis at this point] would be really interesting, even though that is implied by overall gist of your analysis.
Your recalibration of the UWS is verey encoug to see. I guess I'm always conceerned about the behaviour real time series versus strictly-applied "sinusoidal curves", and it is reminiscentof how Imagine the Mayan's adaptations of their 20+ calendar systems (not just clockwork - perhaps the priest lived and died by their results).
But most of all, I would really like to see a graph of Fed injections and the S&P500. "Don't fight the Fed" seems to have attained the status of a religion, and we are so far beyond anything in modern history I didn't think anyone has a handle on it. One possible exception : quantitative economimc historians, such as :
David Fischer 1996 "The Great Wave, Price revolutions and the rhythm of history" New York, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-505377-X
In that vein, on a YouTube video of 09Mar2021 Jason Hartman commented that current interest rates are the lowest they've been ever - over a 5,000 year period going back to ancient Egypt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HfGKl-1gug
34:36 Interest rates are lowest in 5,000 years
So the entire bond market is also hoping to bail out of long bonds well before their "greater fool" colleagues?
Anyways, keep it up!
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#] 28Feb2021 UCT_2021-01-27 Easy Credit, Dependencies, and Inflation.pdf
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#] 18Apr2020 Peutz no longer believes in 1929-style crash, as we've gone past that
p3h0.25 "... During the past week, the widely followed stock market indices (such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Index) further extended their Wave-2 rallies. Thus, the Wave-2 counter trend advance is now extended to 7 weeks after the primary top, which no longer mimics the 1929 and 1987 analogies discussed in the last letter. Despite this difference, a Wave-2 advance is generally followed by a Wave-3 decline, which has not yet happened. Today's letter explains why a looming Wave-3 crash remains the preferred interpretation for the coming weeks. ..."
>> Peutz no longer believes in 1929-style crash, as we've gone past that, but he still thinks a depression >1929 is coming.
p3h0.75 "... In this environment, consider the explosive ascent in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (top of page 14), leveraged commercial bank holdings (middle of page 14), and the inverted LIBOR yield curve (bottom of page 14) as signals of the extreme stress in credit markets. In recent weeks, banks and the Federal Reserve bought an additional $3 trillion in assets that no one else wants. As the unwanted assets proliferate in coming weeks, stock prices will collapse massively in a thunderous crash. Remain explicitly bearish until panic selling runs its course. ..."
>> Puetz does NOT mention that index prices may be more a reflection of government social engineering of financial markets, than of [economic, market] realities.
>> he does mention this in previous newsletters (eg 28Mar2020 below) - "debt addicts".
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#] 28Mar2020 Puetz newsletter - postings to my [webste, Facebook]
Steve Puetz, Editor, UNIVERSAL CYCLE THEORY FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER, 28Mar2020
http://www.uct-news.com
"... Instead, the toxic credit policies are equivalent to a drug dealer peddling crystal meth to an addict. The Federal Reserve acts as the drug dealer – always promising that its new credit policies are temporary boosts, and always encouraging the private sector to borrow more toxic debt. At the same time, private sector debt addicts become increasingly dependent on higher doses of the credit-drug, until the point where our economy is now dying from repeated credit-overdoses. Thus, the view expressed here is quite different from the mainstream consensus. Specifically, easy credit is the problem, not the solution. Moreover, our highly leveraged financial system is the primary problem, not the coronavirus. The coronavirus is simply the pin that pricked the massive bubble – a bubble that cannot and will not be re-inflated anytime soon. Solving the coronavirus problem will not and cannot restore our financial system to its previous bubbly state. The bubble has already burst. ..."
Steve Puetz has beaten every forecaster that I know for the current market. (I don't know many of the really good ones, but trash forecasters are the rule not just in academia (as we would expect), but also on the street.). He was expecting a 1929-style crash for last fall, but if I remember correctly, at that time emergency Fed funding (300 G$ late Aug-ep, 450 G$ -Jan (non-QE QE was the joke) delayed the problem.
I have been following "the bear among bears of Wall Street"'s financial newsletter for a year now. I have not actively invested for 15+ years, but I came across the newsletter after reading some STUNNING [astronomy, history, geology, palontology, psychology]-related [papers, books] [, co-]authored by Steven Puetz. These were centered around his results with a "Universal Wave Series", which is kind of like the system of 20+ Mayan calendars on steroids, expanded my a few tera-years or so of timescale, and at least a few multiples of subject areas.
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#] 11Mar2019 Puetz & Borchardt emails to Stephen [Yaskell, Howell]
Puetz & Borchardt web-directory
Puetz 13Jan2019 financial newsletter - 88 year cycle and harmonics
Puetz financial newsletter
Table of civilization collapses
Howells chart of the Sun and civilisations
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#] 25Nov2015 Puetz etal Evidence of Synchronous, Decadal to Gyr Year Cycles in [Geology, Genetic, Astronomy]
Puetz, Stephen J., Prokoph, Andreas, Borchardt, Glenn, and Mason, Edward W., 2014, Evidence of Synchronous, Decadal to Billion Year Cycles in Geological, Genetic, and Astronomical Events: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, v. 62–63, p. 55-75 [ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2014.04.001].
Puetz, Prokoph, Borchardt, Mason 2014 Evidence of Synchronous, Decadal to Billion Year Cycles in Geological, Genetic, and Astronomical Events
Puetz, Borchardt 150925 Quasi-periodic fractal patterns in geomagnetic reversals, geological activity, and astronomical events
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#] 24Nov2015 - highly cited :
J. Tenreiro Machado, Virginia Kiryakova, Francesco Mainardi 11mmdd "Recent history of fractional calculus" Commun Nonlinear Science & Numerical Simulation, Elsevier, 16 (2011) pp1140-1153
# enddoc