Astronomical [associations, correlates] of [health, pandemics]
Corona virus web-page contents :
Influenza web-page contents :
(Updates: 27Jun2020 added 3 new sub-sections of Thunderbolts, Prechter and Puetz, 18Jun2020 created [influenza, corona virus] web-pages and restructured the content. 05May07, original 06Oct06)
I start this web-page with a very few historical comments about the development of [thinking, science] in this area. I have long felt that :
"... One cannot really understand a science, unless you know the history of its development and the [thinking, concepts] of the people that drove it. Often, the current failures at the basis of mainstream scientific [fashions cum cults cum religions] were well-describe before the [concepts, theories] became accepted and soon thereafter. Time often does not correct these, in spite of claims to the contrary. For that, you need [rare, special] people, who are often non-scientists. Non-scientists can also be instrumental in carrying the torche for defeated scientists whose ideas will ultimately prevail. ..."
Because [influenza, corona virus] are discussed on separate web-pages, here I start by giving an overview of the thinking on non-pandemic health effects of astronomical by a few key groups that have impressed me, notably leaders such as the Thunderbolts groups and Suspicious Observers. That is followed by [random, scattered] work or collections I have done on non-health effects of astronomy, to give some perspective on that, and to make sure that the viewer's thinking isn't overly narrow.
Because of its likely relevance to today's situation, I have posted the section "Cosmic/Galactic rays at historical high in summer 2019". If you look closely at the preceding material, then you may also think that this is well worth keeping an eye on!
I then provide listings of the major causes of death in the USA, and historical pandemics to provide a basis of comparison for my separate web-pages on [influenza, corona virus].
I have not taken the time yet to collect numerous other [emails, blogs, graphs] of mine related to these topics.
20Jun2020 As this web-page was put together in a hurry so I could get on to other work, it is a bit messy at present.
Some historical comments
Mainstream Western science does not accept a significant role for astronomical influences on health, other than indirectly through climate mechanisms, but even here the link is tenuous at best given the modern science "fashion -> cult -> religion" that anthropgenic CO2 is the primary driver of climate since 1850. Given my long-term background priority interest in the catastophic failure of [rational, logical, scientific] reasoning by essentially all [government, academic] scientists, which is assumed to extend across all science and to all homo sapiens, I naturally became infatuated with results suggesting that there may be a strong astronomical influence on human [pandemics, health]. This resembles mainstream [gaps, failures] in so many other areas.
Historically, this area has been led by Russian scientists, little to do with professional Western scientists, but there has been a long series of powerful thinking by amateurs who have taken the lead. It does not seem to be well-accepted by mainstream Western scientists, but it seems that this has been changing rapidly since perhaps 2010, and finally several Western scientists are working to catch up on the topic.
I first saw reference to the theme of pandemics and the Sun in the 2001 note to the editor by Tapping, Mathias, and Surkan, which is discussed in a section below. This was pointed out to me by my father, who had attended a Tapping presentation. After reading into the history of other pandemics, it seemed likely that there may be relationships between most pandemics and solar activity. Over the years, and especially via the Thunderbolts.org "Electric Universe" group, it became clear that a huge range of biological processes, plus human [mental, health] issues may be linked to a huge range of astronomical phenomena. Only rarely did I come across the work of Westerners other than [mythologists, amateurs]. For perhaps over a century our scientists have lagged in this area except for very rare individuals. Since perhaps 2010 or so, there are faint signs that a few more are able to handle the concepts.
References to astronomical [associates, correlates] of human health probably go back to ancient mythology, then astrology. After much more reading than I wanted to, I have to say this is a fascinating area, but its beyond my engineering mindset, which is a good thing. However, Russians Alexader Tchijevsk (Chizevsky) and Kondriatieff did stunning work in the early 1900's, work so good that Stalin sent them to goulags if I remember correctly, as this contradicted socialist theory. Same story as today with our socialists, right? Soon after, Elliot, famous founder of "Elliot Wave" stock market technical analysis techniques, also came to similar conclusions, and felt that stock markets were the best predictor of social mood. Robert Prechter has done fascinating [papers, books] pushing this much further. But perhaps the most persistent and profound thinking may have been from Immanuel Velikovsky in the 1950s-1970s, a much-hated-by-the-mainstream-science-community psychiatrist. His personal and professional life was horribly stabbed by scientists (it sometimes seems that they are most often socialists), notably the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which lead [prosecuters, judge, hangmen] cart [Stephen Jay Gould, Carl Sagan, Isaac Asimov]. Stephen Jay Gould's punctuated evolution was long before developed by 19th century scientists and Velikovsky, although he did provide a modern data basis for it. Was he particularly visious in his attacks against Velikovsky to hide those who actually came up with the ideas that made him famous? I don't know, but one can certainly wonder.
Followers of Velikovsky generally developed and extended many of his ideas, with the Thunderbolts.info group expousing an "Electric Universe" concept to add to physics and other areas of science, complimentary to some of classical science in some respects, and highly critical of the claims of [astronomy, General Relativity, Quantum mechanics]. American mythologist David Talbot and Australian physicist Wal Thornhill (key [founders, members] of the Thunderbolts.info group), and many others led a huge amount of work over decades. Government research scientist Anthony Peratt, an understudy of Hanns Alfen early in his career, has developed a high energy plasma basis to the science after following work by Thornhill and Talbot, with unbelievable (and unbelievably fun) tie-ins to mythology via petroglyphs.
I've comment on his work elsewhere on my website, but Stephen Puetz's "Universal Wave Series" [books, papers] from ~2010 to the present are stunning, in that they tie [physics, astronomy, geology, biological evolution, market psychology, wars, pricing, etc, etc] over the full range of timescales from sub-atomic timescales to tera-years....
Since ~2015, some of the [broadest, deepest, best thought out, creative] new thinking that I have found on this subject can be found in Suspicious0bservers.org's collection of [paper, presentation, video, discussion]s, led by Ben Davidson, , a lawyer by background (as well as some science) who is aware of and influenced by the Electric Universe, but Suspicious0bservers also strike out on their own. Ben Davidson does not do experimental work in the area, but he is a very [rare, sharp, critical] thinker, far beyond essentially all [government,academic] scientists. Many others, particularly Billy Yelverton, do experimental work that is fascinating. I certainly don't agree with everything Davidson sasy nor all of his cherished themes, but I most often find that he [identifies, surpasses] the failures of mainstream science [thinking, analysis, models, theory]. Although critical, he is fair and straightforward. More than one top global scientist has had to pull up his underwear after encounters with Ben.
More recently (2018) Sacha Dobler publish her "Solar History" book, a breath-taking march through the last 1,000 years of history, tied to a central theme that Grand Solar [maxima, minima] are primary drivers of the big trends of history.
Keep in mind that there is an ocean of information there, and I link to only one or two items.
Thunderbolts.info - the Electric Universe and Health
Arising from religion and mythology, and blending in science, the Thunderbolts group has long been considered to be at the fringes. But many of their ideas seem to be working, and in not a few cases scientists are copying the ideas and claiming them for their own, but with near-century time lags.
While the Thunderbolts group is looked at with disdain by the mainstream, and there are many [wacky, tenuous] hypothesis, my own advice is to keep an open mind and consider what is being said. If nothing else, you will be aware of many huge [failures, cover-ups] across many areas of science, that you will NOT find in [mass media, text books, papers].
I have cherry-picked, almost at random, a few of very recent Thunderbolts links below.
Here is a very interesting commentary from the Electric Universe group with historical references on psychology and solar behaviour, often driven by Russian scientists to this day. It's a bit wild for me, but I've learned to [shut up, listen, keep it in mind]. As per the video introduction :
"... Alexander Chizevsky (Tchijevsky?) was likely the first to catalog a cyclical relationship between solar activity and cultural ?upsets? or advancements. Outbursts of both creative or destructive excitement, depending on the socio-cultural conditions which had been building, appeared to facilitate artistic revolutions and bloody revolutions from tyranny alike.
This episode introduces the community to his work, and some of the many effects found by other scientists, which ought to open one?s mind to exploring such a hypothesis. Perhaps channels like Suspicious0bservers will one day help forecast health states of physiology and psychology, helping us to hold better empathy for each other, knowing: ?It's almost that time of the solar cycle!? ..."
(first posted 06Oct2016 from Thunderbolts site)
Thunderbolts.info 31Mar2020 - Geomagnetic Effects on Earth's Biology, Electricity of Life
"... Today, geomagnetic effects on Earth's biology, and life on the planet overall, is the subject of many fields of investigation. In this episode, we present intriguing evidence that the Sun's electromagnetic activity may influence our bodies and minds in surprising and dramatic ways. ...
Topics include : beeching of whales, bird migration, cattle rest orientation, human sense of direction, human brain function and social emotion, blood pressure (Thunderbolts has long pointed out the ischemic heart failures issue), suicide, healing. All of this can be questioned, and all of this raises questions. To me, the suicide data as presented is far from convincing (and I wonder about their use of p-values) : more like a starting point to show finer time resolution data (perhaps US CDC data may help here with monthly stats, but I suspect that the Australian data may also have finer resolution), or a better correlate (perhaps sunspots (sort of), rate of Ap change or jitter?, coronal winds, cosmic/glalactic rays, etc). As stated by the authors of the first paper linked below, "... This study displays findings similar to previous studies that geomagnetic activity has a subtle but measurable impact on the incidence of suicide in women. ..."
- Michael Berk, Seetal Dodd, Margaret Henry 2006 "Do ambient electromagnetic fields affect behaviour? A demonstration of the relationship between geomagnetic storm activity and suicide" Bio-electromagnetics Journal, Uof Melbourne, Australia (both images above come from this paper)
- Tsutomu Nishimura, I-Ju Tsai, Hiroyuki Yamauchi, Eli Nakatani, Masanori Fukushima, Chung Y Hsu Feb2020 "Association of of geomagnetic disturbances and suicide attempts in Taiwan, 1997-2013. A cross-sectional study"
Jerry Tennant 16Jun2020 - Voltage and Regeneration, Electricity of Life
As stated in this video :
- "... The salamander is capable of growing an exact replica of an arm, leg, eye, ear, up to 1/3 of its brain, almost all of its digestive tract, and up to 1/2 of its heart. ..." (without getting cancer). Jerry Tennant describes his own work and thinking in this area, based on observed bio-voltages, and some astounding injury recovery in humans.
- "... All chronic disease is characterized by having inadequate voltage. ...".
- "... Chronic disease only occurs when we lose the ability to make new cells that work. ..."
"... One of the leading pioneers in integrative health is Dr. Jerry Tennant, a renowned ophthalmologist whose book series 'Healing is Voltage' describes his groundbreaking research into the body's electrical circuitry.
Tennant's video reminds me of long-standing [analysis, commentary] by Bill Lucas on [bio-degradation, health], with a basis in his "Universal Force" physics concept. That theory is one one of my two priority research projects, in which I hope to re-derive his theories as a check. Lucas emphasizes that the "Chirality" of the fields is critical, as it is with biochemistry.
At EU2017: Future Science, Dr. Tennant presented, "Healing is Voltage - The Physics of Emotions," which focused on the mind/body connection, and how emotions are stored in and around the body as magnetic fields. He discussed how these magnetic fields can cause harmful biochemical effects and create blockages in the associated muscle battery packs, which provide the necessary voltage for organs to function and repair themselves.
Recently, he offered a series of presentations as part of a Continuing Medical Education class for Naturopathic Doctors in Arizona. Dr. Tennant and his group have kindly granted us permission to feature these lectures in our Electricity of Life label. ..."
Note this presentation does NOT directly link to astronomical factors, but again, the potential link, given other information on this web-page, is obvious.
Alex Fournier 17Aug2016 - The Sun's Influence on Consciousness, Electricity of Life
???? need to revamp this description???
Alexander Chizevsky was likely the first to catalog a cyclical relationship between solar activity and cultural "upsets" or advancements. Outbursts of both creative or destructive excitement, depending on the socio-cultural conditions which had been building, appeared to facilitate artistic revolutions and bloody revolutions from tyranny alike.
This episode introduces the community to his work, and some of the many effects found by other scientists, which ought to open one's mind to exploring such a hypothesis. Perhaps channels like Suspicious0bservers will one day help forecast health states of physiology and psychology, helping us to hold better empathy for each other, knowing: "It's almost that time of the solar cycle!"
Eileen Mckusick - Mastering the Human Biofield with Tuning Forks
Eileen Mckusick gave a presentation at an Electric Universe (Thunderbolts conference, but that video is only accessible to members so I have provided a link to her website. Another site that has posted an article of her work is Sarah Kalvin's Planetary Dynamics - "Eileen McKusick - Mastering the Human Biofield with Tuning Forks", 24Mar2017. Her work is definitely out of my comfort zone, but as I keep telling myself : "shut up and listen, one day it may come back". Besides, many people believe in astrology, and while that doesn't include me, the persistance of the subject amazes me. Before 300 years ago, apparently almost all astronomers were astrologists because the subjects were practically inseparable. If nothing else, it has huge historical significance.
As commented on Mckusick's site "... Biofield Tuning is a sound therapy method that provides targeted nervous system relaxation which can alleviate a wide range of health issues. ...". So if you like massages, astrology, or go to a chiropractor (I do not!), this may be interesting to you. Obviously I'm not a fan, but on the other hand it reveals a great strength of groups like Thunderbolts - they will listen to sincere people. Perhaps that's why modern scientists are scrambling to catch up on many topics that the amateurs trail-blazed, even though most aren't even aware of it, and those who do know will never tell nor will they give credit.
As with Jerry Tennant's video above, note that this presentation does NOT directly link to astronomical factors, but there still may be potential links.
Ben Davidson & colleagues have a large number of fascinating, well thought out] cart [papers, conference presentations, videos] on the possible effects of Space Weather on human health, including [mental, behavioural, emotional] effects. In the spectrum [science -> non-science -> nonsense], they cover the first and second parts, and where you disagree with them, naturally the third. <grin> They also provide a constant stream of references to new peer-reviewed journal papers on the subject. From a number of great videos, and comments dispersed amoung a large number of daily "Space Weather" videos, I have linked two below.
Ben Davidson 23Feb2018 - What To Do With Space Weather Health Information
This video presents much more general information on space weather and health. It is a very [interesting, thought-provoking] video. I need to make "quick notes" of this presentation at some time in the future.
(Observing the Frontier conference 28Feb2018, Available as Deeper Look Episode 25, Suspicious0bservers)
Here are my quick notes of that video.
- Alexander Chizhevsky (Tchijevsky?), created heliobiology, biophysicist
500 BCE-1922 CE sunspots versus [riots, revolutions, battles, war] in Russia & 71 other countries
Historiometry - this was published
Stalin sent him to work in Ural goulag for 8 years (theory contradicted official socialist reasons for 1905 & 1917)
- Neil Cherry 09Aug2001 "Schumann Resonances, a plausible biophysical mechanism for the human health effects of Solar/Geomagnetic Activity"
Polk 82mmdd Schumann Resonances and EEG [delta,theta,alpha,beta] bands, in D'Amico 180228 Space Weather & Human Health.png
- originated with German physicist W.O. Schumann, 1952
- Schumann resonances ULF/ELF radio signals trapped between ionosphere & Earth's surface
caused by thunderstorm activity
- Cherry created multiple hypothesis "can the brain absorb, detect, and respond to extremely low intensity ULF/ELF environmental electromagnetic signals"
Cherry didn't do primary research - meta-analysis
- Schumann student Konig = ELF brain waives may have evolved to use natural Schumann signals (Natural Zeitgeber)
Schumann response - healthy at normal levels, extreme [intensity,frequency] alter brain waves
- polstulated melatonin/serotonin balance
- solar maximum & solar storms
Brain waves :
Delta wave - (0.1 - 3 Hz)
Theta wave - (4 - 7 Hz)
Alpha wave - (8 - 15 Hz)
Mu wave - (7.5 - 12.5 Hz)
SMR wave - (12.5 - 15.5 Hz)
Beta wave - 2. (16 - 31 Hz)
Gamma wave - (32 - 100 Hz)
- Rutger Weaver - chronobiologist
- sleep highly correlated with depression, ???
- 1974 Weaver shielded a room, removed daily variations - subjects lost sync, but gained sync with 10 Hz !!!!
- Schumann response @ 7.5-12 Hz? over 3 to 6 months
- Feigin, Parmar, Nikola Kasabov, etal 22Apr2014 Geomagnetic storms can trigger stroke
Results-Overall, geomagnetic storms were associated with an increase in the risk of stroke occurrence. The triggering effect of geomagnetic storms was most evident across the combined group of all strokes in those aged <65 years, increasing stroke risk by >50%:
overall (moderate-extreme) => 19% (95% CI, 11%-27%) why lower? - perhaps not so much effect on thise >65 years
moderate ( 60- 99 Ap Index) => 27% (95% CI, 8%-48%)
strong (100-149 Ap Index) => 52% (95% CI, 19%-92%)
severe/extreme (150+ Ap Index) => 52% (95% CI, 19%-94%)
=> "... geomagnetic storms ... were associated with a ... increased risk of stroke occurrence ..."
- inverse relationship in data/graph!!! did authors comment?
Valery L. Feigin, Priya G. Parmar, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Derrick A. Bennett, Craig S. Anderson, Amanda G. Thrift, Birgitta Stegmayr, Peter M. Rothwell, Maurice Giroud, Yannick Bejot, Phillip Carvil, Rita Krishnamurthi, Nikola Kasabov 22Apr2014 "Geomagnetic Storms Can Trigger Stroke : Evidence From 6 Large Population-Based Studies in Europe and Australasia" Stroke. 2014;45:1639-1645, https://doi.org/10.1161/STROKEAHA.113.004577
(This was published the year I saw Nik in Auckland!!)
- Ebrille, Konecny, Spacek etal 1602dd "Correlation of geomagnetic activity with implantable cardioverter defibrillator shocks and antitachycardia pacing" Mayo Clin Proc 90(2):202-208. doi:10.1016/j.mayocp.2014.11.011
The authors came up with an inverse relationship!!! This is similar to the [cosmic, galactic] ray inverted relationship, and probably other examples I can't think of off the top of my head.
- Alabdulgader, etal 08Feb2018 "Long-term study of heart rate variability responses to changes in the solar and geomagnetic environment" Nature Scientific Reports
Presenter D'Amico notes opportunity with cell-phone heart-rate info. Howell : I first saw a paper on this by an American scientist from the 1960's or 1970s. I don't have the reference on hand (probably buried in my directories somewhere).
- D'Amico & Davidson 2018 project - [suicide,behaviour,health] & solar-geomag activity for Veterans Affairs
As of 18Jun2020 I have not seeen this report. Perhaps it is in development and will be presented at an "Observingthe Frontiers" conference of the Suspicious0bservers.org? I am keenly interested in what might come out of it, as well as seeing whether Space Weather may influence criminal behaviour.
The first quantitative sociology theory, and the second universal wave series?
Now who would have thought that the stock market may be the best quantitative measure of social mood, and a great correlate of many social variables? Certainly not I. And who would have thought that many, if not most, periodicities across [astronomy, geology, climate, evolution, biology, history, etc] could be unified into a simple universal wave series? Again, certainly not I.
Whether [right, wrong, true, false], the thinking and questions of Robert Prechter (well known for Elliot Wave technical analysis for stock markets), and Stephen Puetz (a not-so-well-known mathematician, who is also in my opinion of one of the best stock market commentators at a macro-scale), are certainly one-in-a-million thinkers. If you get their books, be prepared to have the rug pulled out from under your intellectual soothing blanket, to have your "university-induced stupidity" disrupted.
Neither links their work to astronomy, but that should be evident given the other material on this web-page.
In terms of economic forecasts, I have not included two other stunning groups of thinkers :
Collectively, I take the above works, plus "A history of philosophy and psychology" as the best basis for starting to understand sociology. Textbooks are required as well, of course, but they are to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt as far as concepts are concerned.
- Harry S. Dent Jr. (demographics based, with solid economic-market commentary)
- Richard Hernstein, Charles Murray "The Bell Curve" - very much hated by the mainswtream, and statistical errors have been pointed out, but still one of the best books on sociology.
Robert Prechter - Socionomics, the first quantitative sociology?
Even from the 1930's, just after Kondriatieff and Tchijevsky, Ralph Nelson Elliot felt that markets moved with trader psychology. Prechter eleaborated greatly on this, calling his "Socionomics" the first quantitative sociology (with justification, in my inexperience view), and calling his "Law of Patterned Herding (LPH)" a better description and predictor of markets than the "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)". In many cases, it certainly seems to be so, plus it illustrates dramatic failures of the "rules of thumb" arising from EMH.
Elliot Wave Theory is well entrenched in stock market analysis. Here I take quotes from the Investopedia website, which shows its relevance to the investment community. This is also shown by the significant portion of Elliot Wave technical analysis on TradingView.com, even though a vast array of other trading toolsets are used. It's still wide-open to interpretation when applied, and not a sure thing at all. I am not entirely comfortable with it, but I guess many professionals work with it. Perhaps it's more art than science, but not much else works entirely well either.
"... Ralph Nelson Elliott developed the Elliott Wave Theory in the 1930s. Elliott believed that stock markets, generally thought to behave in a somewhat random and chaotic manner, in fact, traded in repetitive patterns. In this article, we'll take a look at the history behind Elliott Wave Theory and how it is applied to trading.
Elliott proposed that trends in financial prices resulted from investors' predominant psychology. He found that swings in mass psychology always showed up in the same recurring fractal patterns, or "waves," in financial markets.
Elliott's theory somewhat resembles the Dow theory in that both recognize that stock prices move in waves. Because Elliott additionally recognized the "fractal" nature of markets, however, he was able to break down and analyze them in much greater detail. Fractals are mathematical structures, which on an ever-smaller scale infinitely repeat themselves. Elliott discovered stock index price patterns were structured in the same way. He then began to look at how these repeating patterns could be used as predictive indicators of future market moves.
Elliott Wave Theory's Popularity
In the 1970s, the Elliott Wave principle gained popularity through the work of A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter. In their now-legendary book - Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior - the authors predicted the bull market of the 1980s. Prechter would later issue a sell recommendation days before the crash of 1987. ,
The following paragraphs are taken from Robert Prechter's website, and provide a succinct description of two of his key ideas.
Prechter has developed a theory of the causality of social action-called socionomics-which accounts for the character of trends and events in finance, macroeconomics, politics, fashion, entertainment, demographics and other aspects of human social history. His "socionomic hypothesis" is that social mood, which is endogenously regulated, is the primary regulator of social action. Under development since the 1970s, this idea first reached a national audience in a 1985 cover article in Barron's. Prechter has made presentations about socionomic theory at the London School of Economics, MIT, Georgia Tech, SUNY, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford, Trinity College Dublin and various academic conferences.
"... Prechter has developed a new theory of financial causality that proposes a fundamental separation between the fields of finance and economics. His Socionomic Theory of Finance (STF) opposes the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)-which equates economic and financial markets-on ten major points. In brief, Prechter accepts that in the economic realm, because producers and consumers are knowledgeable of their own needs and desires, the pricing of utilitarian goods and services is mostly objective and motivated by conscious utility maximization; in this context the balance of desires (supply and demand) between heterogeneous groups of producers and consumers leads to equilibrium-seeking in prices. But his STF proposes that in the financial realm, because investors are ignorant of what other investors will do, the pricing of investments is mostly subjective and motivated by unconscious herding; in this context, unfettered changes in desire (demand) within a homogeneous group of investors produce unceasing dynamism in prices at all degrees of activity. In economics, substantial certainty about one's own values induces mostly rational thought; in finance, substantial uncertainty about others' values induces mostly non-rational herding. Prechter's proposed Law of Patterned Herding (LPH) is that investors' moods and their resulting decisions to buy and sell are regulated by waves of optimism and pessimism that fluctuate according to a fractal model called the Wave Principle, or the Elliott wave model. Prices of goods and services are important because they regulate supply and demand. But prices of investments are irrelevant because they are merely a transient byproduct of mood-induced impulses to buy and sell.
References - just a few... :
Stephen Puetz - the second universal wave series after the Mayans?
There are a huge range of [astronomy, geology, climate, history, psychology, sociology, stock markets etc] research with correlations to astronomical quasi-periods. This is best illustrated by Steven Puetz's "Universal Wave Series" (UWS) work!! (kind of like the system of 20+ Mayan calendars, but way beyond it! His work definitely connect to astronomical quasi-cycles, but often as a side-series of "double" the basic UWS. I don't have the time to write this up as of 28Jun2020. Hopefully I will get to that in a few months...
Other health effects of the [sun, astronomy] :
Here are two of my other [presentation, collections].
- Bill Howell, "
Ring around the rosies"- A short presentation about Pandemics
and the Sun to Toastmasters - Hard Disk Cafe, Calgary, 04Oct06.
Howell - Selected pandemics & epidemics
Unfortunately, I have not provided links to a huge number of other [papers, videos] on this subject, including several others of my own (like (my father & my)'s 7,500 years of history chart : Rise and Fall of Civilisations)!!
Non-health effects of the [sun, astronomy] :
There is a huge range of other [astronomy, geology, climate, history, psychology, sociology, stock markets etc] research with correlations to astronomical quasi-periods. Links in the Projects" menu at the top of this web-page delve into more detail, but here are a few quick references including my previous work related to the rise and fall of civilisations (I also looked at wars, but wasn't happy with the [quality, completeness of historical data prior to probably 1200 AD or so) :
Cosmic/Galactic rays at historical high in summer 2019
21May2020 update :
Cosmic-galactic rays are extremely high-energy particles that presumably cannot be generated by our Sun or by nuclear weapons, that are normally assumed to come from galactic (or extragalactic) high energy events like supernova. They easily pass through materials, and generate a cascade of [ionised, nuclear byproduct] particles as they descend through our atmosphere. We are continuously bombarded by a tiny stream of these particles, but during periods of low [solar, geo]-magnetic field strengths (our "shield" against killer doses) the counts go up. Since the ?1940s? (again, I forget the initial references) this has be strongly tied to [climate, weather], and Svensmark has establish cosmic rays as a dominant influence over climate. The solar magnetic field drives the geomagnetic field, so cosmic ray exposure correlates to [sunspot, grand [maxima, minima], other] solar "pseudo-cycles". Furthermore, cosmic rays (and presumably their byproducts) easily damage DNA and other bio-[molecules, tissues, etc].
It has long been speculated (I can't remember the references), that high cosmic-galactic ray periods may be a contributing explanation of the correlation between pandemics and solar "pseudo-cycles". This sounds plausible, but I don't know of specific controlled experiments (hard to do with cosmic rays which supposedly can't be reproduced in laboratories, and the possible timeframes and scale needed for results).
We have been in an exceptionally low sunspot minimum of longer than usual duration, as shown in the NOAA cycle chart. By far the best source of information that I've followed on the "low geomagnetic" (low Kp) days is Ben Davidson's daily news on his Suspicious Observers' YouTube website. I don't agree with everything he says, and he does tend to launch on crusade, but he is far beyond the [capabilities, thinking] of essentially all [government, academic] scientists, and is a far more reliable source (he constantly references "official" scientists and their results). Yes, there are powerful "strong thinkers" in [government, academic] science ("strong" in that they can chanllenge the science "fashions -> cults -> religions" of the overwhelming mainstream), but less than 1 in 10 thousand, so you really have to pick through the herd in an extremely selective manner (pins in a haystack).
Table C. Deaths and percentage of total deaths for the 10 leading causes of death
United States, 2016 and 2017.
Note the colored external data insertions by Howell, also indicated by "n/a".
|Cause of death || Rank || 2017 Deaths || % |
|All causes || 0 || 2,813,503 || 100.0 |
|Policy-driven economic recession (%%%) || n/a || 3,800,000 || n/a |
|Policy-driven economic recession (%%) || n/a || 985,000 || n/a |
|Diseases of heart || 1 || 647,457 || 23.0 |
|Policy-driven economic recession (#)|| n/a || ~600,000 || n/a |
|Malignant neoplasms || 2 || 599,108 || 21.3 |
|1918 Spanish flu || n/a ||>500,000 || n/a |
|COVID-19 by 04Aug2020 (***) || n/a || ~330,000 || n/a |
|Policy-driven economic recession (%) || n/a || 275,000 || n/a |
|COVID-19 by 04Aug2020 (**) || n/a || ~190,000 || n/a |
|Accidents (unintentional injuries) || 3 || 169,936 || 6.0 |
|Chronic lower respiratory diseases || 4 || 160,201 || 5.7 |
|Cerebrovascular diseases || 5 || 146,383 || 5.2 |
|Alzheimer disease || 6 || 121,404 || 4.3 |
|COVID-19 by 04Aug2020 (*) || n/a || ~115,000 || n/a |
|Diabetes mellitus || 7 || 83,564 || 3.0 |
|Influenza and pneumonia (2018-2019)
(&) || n/a || 61,000 || n/a |
|Influenza and pneumonia || 8 || 55,672 || 2.0 |
|Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis || 9 || 50,633 || 1.8 |
|Intentional self-harm (suicide) || 10 || 47,173 || 1.7 |
Spanish flu death estimate from Wikipedia
"... In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). Native American tribes were particularly hard hit. In the Four Corners area, there were 3,293 registered deaths among Native Americans. Entire Inuit and Alaskan Native village communities died in Alaska. In Canada, 50,000 died. ..."
.....From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Policy-driven Economic recession using the Well Being Trust table below :
(very rough ballbark estimate of deaths for say 1 year of bad recession?)
Notice that it is completely ridiculous to extrapolate numbers this far, and the timing basis are different!!! However, everybody else is doing ridiculous things too, so we might as well join them.
(%%%) - [25% unemployment increase, 1.6% rate, Slow] -> 154k deaths * 25% ~= 3.8M deaths
(%% ) - [15% unemployment increase, 1.3% rate, Medium] -> 65.6k deaths * 15% = 984k deaths
(% ) - [10% unemployment increase, 1.0% rate, Fast] -> 27.6k deaths * 10% = 275k deaths
(#) Policy-driven Economic recession - very rough ballbark using :
...... 40,000 US deaths / 1% employment increase * 15% un-employment increase.
This was mentioned by actor Brad Pitt acting in the film "The Big Short", and has apparently been taught in
university economics courses for years.
(*) YYG projections [highest***, expected**, lowest*] as of 11May2020 (approximate - from the graphs below)
for ~five months only, to 04Aug2020!
(&) CDC estimated seasonal flu deaths for all of 2018-2019 flue season (see chart & link below)
The estimates that I put into the table above do not show lives saved by avoiding hospital triage, and by being able to provide quality health care as helped by the policies!!
Historical pandemics :
Here I will simply provide a few links to some good summary articles, plus a figure from one of the references. Be careful of the naming of the disease that caused a pandemic back in history - this is often very iffy.
This illustration is from Eric Mack, in the Forbes magazine article referenced above.
Break on through to the Dark Side
This topic fits well into my theme "Lies, Damned Lies, and Scientists". Even though scientists are not the only group involved, the theme is universally applied to all home sapiens.