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(UkrT) = Ukraine [time, date]
AP = Associated Press
MW = Market Watch (Wall Street Journal -> Barrons -> MW)
MW/AP = I saw it in Market Watch, from Associated Press
Russian hyperbaric bombs - I read about that a long time ago. Destroy humans more, infrastructure less.


07Mar2022 MW/AP: War in Ukraine: Zelensky government accuses Putin of resorting to ‘medieval siege’ tactics in Russia’s ongoing invasion
Published: March 7, 2022 at 5:38 p.m. ET
By Associated Press
Moscow is trying to batter Ukraine — including its civilian population — into submission, says government representative
LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine deepened Monday as Russian forces intensified their shelling and food, water, heat and medicine grew increasingly scarce, in what the country condemned as a medieval-style siege by Moscow to batter it into submission.
A third round of talks between the two sides ended with a top Ukrainian official saying there had been minor, unspecified progress toward establishing safe corridors that would allow civilians to escape the fighting. Russia’s chief negotiator said he expects those corridors to start operating Tuesday.
But that remained to be seen, given the failure of previous attempts to lead civilians to safety amid the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II.
Well into the second week of the invasion, with Russian troops making significant advances in southern Ukraine but stalled in some other regions, a top U.S. official said multiple countries were discussing whether to provide the warplanes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pleading for.

07Mar2022 MW: How China’s Currency Could Come Out a Big Winner in the Ukraine War
Last Updated: March 7, 2022 at 6:26 p.m. ET
First Published: March 7, 2022 at 3:36 p.m. ET
By Reshma Kapadia
China has a real dilemma on its hands over the Ukraine War: How to keep what it describes as its “no limits” friendship with Russia without pulling itself into the conflict—and getting slapped with financial sanctions itself.

If China figures out exactly how to walk this tightrope, it could eventually reap big economic benefits. Some investors already have this figured out and are looking at Chinese assets as a haven in a diversified portfolio.

The war, and the West’s harsh response, has accelerated the shift in the global world order that has been at play for years—centered on the U.S. and China. The relationship between China and the U.S. has frayed, raising concerns about the decoupling of the two countries, especially in areas like technology.

Now, because of the invasion and the strong ties between China and Russia, the decoupling—or deglobalization—probably will happen faster—and not just in technology but more broadly, including in commodities and in currencies. That could be a positive, encouraging China to keep reducing its reliance on the West’s dollar-based system and make Russia more reliant on it—and potentially its official currency, the renminbi.

The sanctions that froze Russia’s foreign reserves raises a key question for countries, especially those like China at risk of being on the wrong side of the West: Should they start diversifying those reserves away from the dollar?

07Mar2022 Rodney's Take: 1920 Jones Act, shipped US goods too expensive for Americans
With world leaders discussing how to cut off Russian oil sales and gasoline prices shooting higher in the U.S., it’s worth remembering a relic of times past that stops Americans from selling stuff to each other, the 1920 Jones Act.
...
Due to the cost of ship-building and registration in the U.S., few merchant vessels today meet the Jones Act standards. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows that in 1960 there were 2,926 U.S. merchant cargo vessels with a gross tonnage of 1,000 tons or more that fit the bill. By 1980 the number had fallen to 864, and by 2000 it was just 282. Today, we have a mere 182 ships that are considered Jones Act vessels. All the while, our population and GDP have expanded.
...
With so few Jones Act vessels available, shippers only use them when nothing else will work. The ships cost 400% to 500% more to lease than other vessels, which is nothing more than a tax on the consumers who eventually must pay the added cost for the shipped goods.
...
Boston and Puerto Rico have purchased natural gas from Russia because, by law, the gas cannot be moved from the Gulf Coast to those locations without a Jones Act vessel.

07Mar2022 PSI, opindia.com: Ukraine - Russian govt had raised 'bioweapons' alarm
As Russia has started attacking military installations in Ukraine, there are speculations that the United State’s Biolabs that have been established in Ukraine in the name of research and defence are also among the targets. The US has several such labs in Ukraine under its “Biological Threat Reduction Program”.

Social media has been abuzz with discussions on how the Russian government, in addition to objecting to NATO’s expansion in the region, has been highlighting their concerns, accusing the USA of running bioweapon labs near their border. A Twitter handle named @WarClandenstine claimed that it may be a possibility that Russia is targeting the Biolabs. Nothing has been confirmed yet.
...
In 2019, BTRP established two laboratories for the Consumer Protection Service of Ukraine with Biosafety Level 2 in Kyiv and Odesa. Both regions are under Russia’s attack. The US not only provides support for laboratory establishment but has also been funding research projects in Ukraine where the Ukrainian and American scientists work together.

Russia invades Ukraine
On 24 February, after weeks of speculations, Russia finally invaded Ukraine, triggering a massive outrage all over the world.
...
Addressing the people, Putin had announced that it is launching a military operation directed towards the ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine. The alleged biological weapons program is one of the many concerns Russia had raised regarding Ukraine.

NATO countries including the USA have promised to impose severe sanctions on Russia as a retaliatory measure against the invasion.

04Mar2022 MktWatch, Opinion: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 4 ways this war could end
Last Updated: March 5, 2022 at 12:36 p.m. ET
First Published: March 3, 2022 at 11:27 a.m. ET
By Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, Jeffrey Cimmino
Even the rosiest of these possibilities is fraught with danger 05Mar2022 12:32 : 21 Comments. NOTE: Amateur comments are far better than the [author, experts]!
 There are many great amateur comments.

Leon Lobos - Please watch University of Chicago's Professor Mearsheimer's 2015 presentation of the then current situation in Ukraine. You can find it on YouTube. Unfortunately, this debacle could have been avoided if it were not for the neocons. The neocons have pursued this path since Clinton's second term up to Obama. Trump opposed. Biden picked up where Obama let off! Study history.
JS Jensen - Doubt anyone will watch a hour plus video. Many might agree (me too) with what the professor is known for mainly; Ukraine should not have given up nukes & Crimea was key for Russia Navy continue access for its Black Sea fleet. But his idea of Ukraine as a buffer state to exist in a no-man land is silly, doesn't work anywhere, and disregards what Ukrainians desire --- not to mention the obvious but that the professor talks about Russia needs, and the reality is what Putin wants. I like to study history, and I usually observe that while historians try to be true to their subject, political scientist and international relations scholar seem to discount information. The professor is not a historian, he's a political scientist. I suggest if you want to study history, you start with a historian rather than by political scientists who typically have agendas to fit their narrative.
Leon Lobos - You are correct that most won't spend the time? What is being presented in by Dr. Mearsheimer in 2015 gives a detailed explanation of the path that has materialized today. It is as if he had a crystal ball! As for his credentials, he has them. Check his bio. He has military experience. . He is a graduate of the United States Military Academy and of course other post graduate degrees from other esteemed universities. I too am a prior military officer with an aviation and Naval Intelligence background from the Cold War days up to the First Gulf War. I have been against the neocon wars since the debacle after the Second Gulf War. There is enough information on the neocon influence in our foreign policy , but one must have the time and analytical ability to do the research. You may disagree with what I have presented, but conversations such as these make for a stronger America. Also, Dr. Mearsheimer's video's are available to watch. I believe the most recent is from Jan of 2022.
>> Howell - Here are links to Mearsheimer's 2015 presentation Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault?, and a key figure that surpd me : Ethnic breakdown of Ukraine.

/home/bill/web/ProjMajor/History/Ukraine-Russia/Mearsheimer 2015 Ethnic breakdown of Ukraine.png 04Mar2022 MW/AP: Civilian drone hobbyists in Ukraine join the fight against Russia
Published: March 4, 2022 at 5:01 p.m. ET
By Associated Press
‘Kyiv needs you and your drone at this moment of fury!’ read a Facebook post late last week from the Ukrainian military
One entrepreneur who runs a retail store selling consumer drones in the capital said its entire stock of some 300 drones made by Chinese company DJI has been dispersed for the cause. Others are working to get more drones across the border from friends and colleagues in Poland and elsewhere in Europe.
But there’s a downside: DJI, the leading provider of consumer drones in Ukraine and around the world, can easily pinpoint the location of an inexperienced drone operator, and no one really knows what the Chinese firm might do with that data. That makes some volunteers uneasy. DJI declined to discuss specifics about how it has responded to the war.

04Mar2022 Rodney Johnson: Saudia Arabia's dilemma
(Rodney Johnson's Weekly Wrap - Jobs, Oil, and Manufacturing)
OPEC+, which includes Russia, stuck with the plan to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per month, even as most of the world turns its back on Russian supplies. Saudi Arabia is trying to walk a fine line between helping its strategic security partner, the U.S., and not antagonizing its cartel partner, Russia. Eventually the Middle Eastern country will have to choose. In the meantime, expect oil to stairstep higher, possibly near $125 per barrel. Gasoline prices will march higher as well, just in time for the summer driving season. The situation could give a huge boost to auto manufacturers trying to hawk new electric vehicle models later this year.

02Mar2022 Rodney Johnson's Take - Guerillas in the Machine
(market newsletter, often great comments on broader issues)
The hacker collective Anonymous declared cyber war on Russia, and since February 25 has shut down the RT international news site (rt.com), which is a mouthpiece for the Russian government, and websites for the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry. These attacks were unsophisticated, distributed, denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, which are easy to create and easy to repel, but we’re just getting started.

After Japan pledged to send support to Ukraine, hackers attacked Kojima Industries, which supplies plastic parts and electronic components to auto manufacturers. The attacks shut down the parts supplier, which led Toyota to suspend production for a day in Japan, losing the production of 13,000 vehicles.
>> Howell - Johnson does not mention Russain satellite system, but he does mention several other hacks since mid-2000s

26Feb2022 nationalreview.com: Why the Russians Are Struggling
By Mark Antonio Wright,February 26, 2022 3:11 PM?
It’s important to not get carried away here: The Kremlin is still favored to win this fight. But the last three days of combat should put a serious dent in the reputation of this new Russian army. We should, however, try to understand why the Russians are struggling. First, the Russian army’s recent structural reforms do not appear to have been sufficient to the task at hand. Second, at the tactical and operational level, the Russians are failing to get the most out of their manpower and materiel advantage.
...
As the Marines say, “Movement without suppression is suicide.”
The Russians do not appear to be good at the details, and their failures at the operational and tactical levels have made an inherently difficult task much, much harder. This is why they are struggling. It’s why they will now turn to brute force to try to smash their way into the capital.
>> Howell: FANTASTIC article with great videos!

02Mar2022 msn.com: Will Russia invade Moldova? What Lukashenko’s ‘battle map’ could indicate about Putin’s plans after Ukraine
Claire Gilbody-Dickerson
Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko may have inadvertently revealed Vladimir Putin’s battle plan during a national security council meeting – and it appears to include Moldova.
In a short video posted by Belarusian journalist Tadeusz Giczan, Mr Lukashenko can be seen pointing to a map purporting to show Russia’s movements as it wages a war against Ukraine.
The map displayed by Mr Lukashenko, a key ally of Mr Putin, appears to divide Ukraine into four parts and show Russian troops crossing the border into Moldova from the Ukrainian port city of Odessa.
the Kremlin’s next target. But the scene also appeared highly stage-managed.


27Feb2022 Hugo talks - Skeptical view of war and media posing Hugo video -skeptical about the coverage, and senses that something isn't what it is portayed as being.
Howell's question is : How is this different from anything else? Is Hugo himself naive, or am I?
>> /media/bill/Dell2/Website - raw/History/Ukraine-Russia//home/bill/web/ProjMajor/History/Ukraine-Russia/220301 Tadeusz Giczan: Lukashenko showed what looks like an actual invasion map.png

26Feb2022 Dobler: 29% of the West’s Wheat Supply is gone – Ice Age Farmer Food Shortages. From Reuters: “Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of world maize (corn) exports, and 80% of world sunflower oil exports. ” Due to European sanctions on Russia, this will not be exported to Europe and other western countries, but to China instead. read more Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies Video Ice Age Farmer: Merchant ships hit by missiles; Grain/fert exports STOP in Ukraine/Russia
>> Bill Howell, 26Feb2022 - Sheesh, I was too stupid to see this coming. I think China had relatively low crops last year? I didn't check) If some of the key grain regions in China are like the "Palliser triangle" of southern [Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba] and Northern [Montana, Idaho], then another very low precipitation year could spell major problems? It's unlikely that ALL key global grain regions would be hit hard at the same time, apart from a major solar or other process (like Sacha Dobler'"Solar history"). But if [Russia, Ukraine] are also heading for dryness, then we could be heading for "interesting times".

This situation very much reminds me of the Chinese film "Back to 1942", when massive starvation hit Henan province at the same time as the Japanese invasion. Apparently there was a very bad drought ~10 years before that, too. Of course, in the "dirty thirties" Western North America had a bad drought, and possibly the Ukraine then as well (but not Belarus according to the only self-declared Belarussan that I've met)? Did Stalin push the Holomodor during a very bad drought, BOTH to suppress kulaks, but also to generate mountains of foreign cash needed for his [industrialisation, WWII] buildup according to plans?? A bit later, Germany apparently helped greatly with the construction of plants in Russia to beat the Versailles treaty limitations. But Stalin's overwhelming support came from Roosevelt, diplomatically at least as soon as the Finnish invasion, materially post-Barbarossa but well before Pearl Harbour. This was probably the foundation for all major socialist nations (including being out-manouvered by Mao-Stalin in China).

Ukrane is also an important [oil, gas, metals] producer, and the deep offshore Black Sea domaines were suggested as one reason for the 2014 or 2015 "civil war" (with a little help from Russia).

26Feb2022 Dobler: Russia’s Ballistic Missile deployments along Ukraine’s Eastern Border Published on February 16, 2022
Written by William Walter Kay BA JD
The Ukrainians are bringing knives to a gunfight. Kudos to "The Drive’s" January 19th gallery of stills and videos evincing Russia’s Iskander-M (pictured) build-up along Ukraine’s eastern border.
(1) Best estimates have 48 launchers deployed, each packing two Iskander-M missiles, and with plenty of spare ammo on hand.
...
Currently, the Ukrainian government faces its domestic adversaries across a jagged 500-kilometre frontline. To the west are 125,000 Ukrainian soldiers (half of Ukraine’s total troop strength). To the east lie the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, together boasting 35,000 troops. The Ukrainians contend, and the Russians deny, an additional 3,000 Russian Special Ops troops bolster the breakaway Republics’ upstart armies.

To the east of Donbass lies Russia’s western border whereupon some 100,000 troops and 48 Iskander-M launchers are deployed. Not far to the south, and off the east coast of the Azov Sea, Russian cruise-missile frigates hold anchor.
...
The Russians possess up-to-the-minute data from drones, satellites, high altitude aircraft, ground reconnaissance, and intelligence intercepts regarding the micro-locations of Ukrainian frontline deployments. The Iskander-M possesses four guidance systems including one operating on a data base of digital photographs of routes and targets which the Russians have surveyed, from the air, countless times.
...
The first half-hour of the rumoured war’s kinetic engagement may see 96 Iskander warheads, and as many sea-launched cruise missiles, hitting the Ukrainian Army’s: fuel storage depots, command-and-control infrastructure, transportation hubs, troop concentrations, artillery pieces, and arsenals etc. The Ukrainian Army could not withstand one hour of such battering; and they have zero defence.
..
Nor do the Ukrainians possess artillery or missiles capable of reaching the Iskander launchers.
Nor do they have missile intercept capabilities.
This may be the first modern Post-Cold War war, i.e., the first decisive use of the advances in ballistics and guidance, gained during the Cold War’s twilight years, to deliver conventional, legal warheads.
>> Bill Howell, 23Feb2022 - Nice to see some strategic thinking in Western articles.

U.S. officials say Russia has 70% of required military capacity in place for full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Published: Feb. 7, 2022 at 1:40 p.m. ET
By Associated Press
Such an invasion could lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and result in as many as 50,000 casualties, according to U.S. assessments

NATO estimates have reportedly indicated that Russia has dispatched some 30,000 troops, along with sophisticated materiel, to Belarus, where joint military exercises have been underway as Putin appears to draw closer with authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenka.

The ongoing Russian buildup comes as the Biden administration has been disclosing intelligence in hopes of pre-emptively countering Russian disinformation and blocking Putin’s plans for creating a pretext for an invasion. But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to back up many of its claims.

On Saturday, the New York Times and the Washington Post said officials were warning that a full Russian invasion could lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and potentially result in as many as 50,000 casualties. The Belarusian frontier is less than 100 kilometers from Kyiv. Ukraine and Belarus share a border that stretches more than 1,000 kilometers from west to east.

President Joe Biden has said he will not send U.S. troops to Ukraine to fight a war. He has, however, ordered additional forces, including headquarters personnel and combat troops, to Poland and Romania to reassure those NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a NATO member but receives U.S. and allied military support and training.

Army officials on Saturday announced that Maj. Gen. Christopher Donahue, the commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived in Poland. About other 1,700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne are deploying to Poland from Fort Bragg in North Carolina, and 300 soldiers are deploying from Fort Bragg to Germany. In addition, 1,000 Germany-based soldiers are shifting to Romania.

As of Friday, the officials said, the Russian army has put in place near Ukraine a total of 83 “battalion tactical groups,” each of which is roughly equivalent in size to an American battalion of between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. That is an increase from 60 battalion tactical groups in position just two weeks ago, they said.
...
Another 14 battalion tactical groups are on their way to the border area from other parts of Russia, the officials said. Two officials said the U.S. assesses that Russia would want a total of between 110 and 130 battalion tactical groups for use in a full-scale invasion, but Putin could decide on a more limited incursion. Including support units, Russia might be aiming to have 150,000 troops in place for a full-scale invasion, one official said, adding that the ongoing buildup could reach that level in the next couple of weeks.

On the lower end of the scale of military escalation, Putin might order sabotage, cyberattacks and other destabilizing actions inside Ukraine with the goal of removing the current government in Kyiv, officials have said.


24Jan2022 MW: Fiona Hill - Putin wants to evict the United States from Europe
Putin’s ambitions are bigger than Ukraine, says Fiona Hill: ‘He wants to evict the United States from Europe’
Last Updated: Jan. 24, 2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET
First Published: Jan. 24, 2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET
By Robert Schroeder
Russian leader has U.S. ‘right where he wants it,’ expert says
In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s eyes are on a bigger prize, a top expert on Putin and his country says.

“This time,” writes former intelligence officer Fiona Hill in a New York Times op-ed, “Mr. Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s ‘open door’ to Ukraine and taking more territory — he wants to evict the United States from Europe. As he might put it: ‘Goodbye America. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.’ ”

Hill, who was a top adviser to President Donald Trump on Russia — and gave testimony against him during his first impeachment — writes that Putin wants the U.S. to “suffer” in a way similar to that in which Russia did in the 1990s, when NATO and the U.S. forced Russia to withdraw the remnants of the Soviet military from bases in Eastern Europe and elsewhere.

Hill’s op-ed comes as the New York Times is reporting that Biden is considering deploying several thousand troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO countries in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. Such an expansion of U.S. military capability would come as fear mounts of a further Russian incursion into Ukraine, having previously annexed the Crimean peninsula and backed pro-Kremlin separatists in the country’s east.

With Putin playing what Hill calls a “longer, strategic game,” the Russian leader “has the United States right where he wants it,” she writes.

“Forging a united front with its European allies and rallying broader support should be America’s longer game,” Hill writes. “Otherwise this saga could indeed mark the beginning of the end of America’s military presence in Europe.”
>> Howell : Very insightful perspective of Fiona Hill, that goes beyond the limited bounds of my thinking. Russian leader “has the United States right where he wants it,” she writes, echoing an oft-recurring theme of the past? This is like Sean McKeekin's 2021 "Stalin's War: a new history of World War II", and many others that go into depth on [goal, strategy, opportunism] at the edge of war. There are also many awesome blog comments that provide food for thought. As usual, it unfortunately seems that many bloggers can't think outside the context of their own political alliegances, which is a huge constraint for understanding the situation.

28Jan2022 MW/AP: U.S. has put some 8,500 troops on higher alert for potential deployment
Pentagon chief Austin says Putin now has a full range of options for Ukraine
Published: Jan. 28, 2022 at 2:51 p.m. ET
By Associated Press
NATO bolstering its deterrence in the Baltic Sea region, and the U.S. has put some 8,500 troops on higher alert for potential deployment to Europe


28Jan2022 MW/AP: Russia says it won’t start a war as Ukraine tensions mount
Published: Jan. 28, 2022 at 5:34 a.m. ET
By Associated Press
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s top diplomat said Friday that Moscow will not start a war but warned that it wouldn’t allow the West to trample on its security interests amid fears it is planning to invade Ukraine.

ensions have soared in recent weeks, and the United States and its NATO allies worry that the concentration of about 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine heralds Moscow’s intention to attack the ex-Soviet state. Russia has repeatedly denied having any such plans, but has demanded that NATO promise Ukraine will never be allowed to join and that the alliance roll back deployments of troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe.

The U.S. and NATO formally rejected those demands this week, though Washington outlined areas where discussions are possible, perhaps offering a path to de-escalation.

Russia’s official response to those proposals — and the ultimate decision over whether to invade — rests with President Vladimir Putin, but the Kremlin has sounded a grim note thus far, saying there is “little ground for optimism.”

Lavrov noted Friday that the U.S. suggested the two sides could talk about limits on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, restrictions on military drills and rules to prevent accidents between warships and aircraft. He said that Russia proposed discussing those issues years ago — but Washington and its allies never took them up on it until now.

While he described the U.S. offers for dialogue on confidence-building measures as reasonable, he emphasized that Russia’s main concerns are to stop NATO’s expansion and the deployment of the alliance weapons near Russia’s borders. He noted that international agreements say that the security of one nation must not come at the expense of others’ — and that he would send letters to ask his Western counterparts to address that obligation.

“It will be hard for them to wiggle out from answering why they aren’t fulfilling the obligations sealed by their leaders not to strengthen their security at the expense of others,” he said.


25Jan2022 TradingView: Bitcoin and the Ukraine, Russia Deus - The bigger picture in BTC says the move is nearly complete. To enter longs I would need to see a pronounced divergence against RSI indicator.

RayCharles - Wait for the 1st gunshot in Ukraine, you will find BTC at 5,000$

Deus - @RayCharles, 5k or 50k? and what's the logic?

RayCharles - @Deus, In time of war, governments will freeze all non-tangible assets;
BTC and cryptos are hard to confiscate, therefore there will be governments ban on exchanges to freeze cryptos.
Exchange will obey and cryptos will be vaporized.

Deus - @RayCharles, yeah, but we are not talking about WWIII yet. It is just a local conflict. Not even a conflict yet.

RayCharles - @Deus, the East-West conflict is back in town now in the middle of Europe, and the East looks much stronger than the West. Obama's knees wavered in Syria (2015), Trump barked a lot but almost never bite, Biden lost his pants 8 months ago in Afghanistan. These are local wars in a larger war strategy. And the sad truth is the West is unable to win nor to hold a war on three different fronts (Central europe- Middle East - Far East).

Deus - @RayCharles, well you still can send from wallet to wallet. So the real price in such circumstances will soar

RayCharles - @Deus, Cryptos will be banned. Full stop. Wallet or not. It will be frozen - illegal - punished. Beans+Bullion+Filtering masks