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Howell - emails, blogs on Ukraine Russia.html

Howell's Ukraine-Russia [news, email, comment, blog] webPages :
Ukraine [time, date], UCT +2 hours normal time

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07Mar2022 18:05 kyivindependent.com: Blinken- Ukraine’s using defense support 'effectively' against Russian aggression
U.S. Secretary of State said that 70% of the recently provided $350 million in defense support to Ukraine “is already in the hands of Ukrainians,” and $10 billion in emergency aid to be provided by the Congress “very quickly.”
>> Howell: Seems dis-ingenuous, as required for politically-correct thinkers. Without military strength, there is little chance on long-term resistance. All population likely to be at mercy of invaders. Enemy humanitarian support of population possibly makes invasion much more attractive to the invader. High oil prices as well, even if Russia only gets a fraction of that, for now.

02Mar2022 Roosevelt treason - atomic bomb [top-secret designs, material, etc] direct to Russia 1943

02Mar2022 phone call with Uncle Bob Howell - flights through Penhold Albert on way to Russia with Atomic bomb secrets. This followed a comment by my brother that Bob had mentioned screts going to Soviets via Calgary airport.

2022-03-02 08:44 The Control Center of the Russian Space Agency Roskosmos has no more control over its spy-sattelites.
“Hacking group NB65, affiliated with Anonymous, has shut down the Control Center of the Russian Space Agency ‘Roskosmos’. Russia has no more control over their own spy-sattelites,” reads a message on Telegram channel of the latest information from Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
>> Howell: Wow! I didn't see this coming either. Hackers to the rescue, not governments, or perhaps some hidden help? Maybe in exchange for leniency with charges against NB65?

2022-03-04 15:45 Russia attacks, captures Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine
by Igor Kossov
An earlier fire at a non-critical building, caused by a Russian ‘projectile,’ was contained, without any damage to the plant, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) reported. The plant continues to operate, though only one of its six reactors is currently active. There has been no release of radiation detected at the site.
However, the situation remains extremely dangerous, as disruptions in the plant’s operations, such as the cooling of nuclear fuel, may cause an environmental catastrophe, the likes of which the world has never seen, according to Energoatom.
Earlier, as Russian forces approached Enerhodar, thousands of local unarmed civilians came out as a massive crowd to try to block their approach multiple times. Pictures showed huge crowds of people occupying a local road. They had also blocked the road with heavy trucks, Liga reported.
The Zaporizhia plant has a capacity of 5,700 megawatts and provides half of Ukraine’s nuclear power and over a fifth of its total power, according to Energoatom.
>> Howell: Russians captured while preserving viability. They had NO intention of destroying it.

2022-02-11 12:52 Questions about Russia’s war against Ukraine with defense reporter Illia Ponomarenko
by Elina-Alem Kent and Illia Ponomarenko
In order to send in future questions and hear more exclusive opinions and analyses from our journalists and editors become our patron at patreon.com/kyivindependent.
defense reporter Illia Ponomarenko - comments that aircraft received every day from [US,UK,??].

07:56 ?Victor Myliachuk? why Zelensky reluctant to clean up government& agenecies? traitor - huge criminal investigation against him, Putin's man had no alternatives, many others like him, doesn't have a huge impact
10:18 can Ukraine develop own surface to air missiles? Ponomarenko - to much [money, time, engineering, production]. We do some projects, but take [resurces, time] we don't have. er equipment from Soviet
11:27 fortications and minefields against tanks? Yes - Donbas, but not elsewhere
12:09 Do we have sufficient air defense? Illia - no we don't, short of fighter jets & old generation, need air missile defense
13:15 artillary attack, can we defend? Illia - depends on area, cannot afford [angy, dumb] moves give bad image(?)
15:14 way more important is West impact onussian resources


20Jan2022 emto Geoff Cowper - my thoughts on WWI & Ukraine now

-------- Forwarded Message --------
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 22:33:06 -0700
Subject: RE : Condolences for Neil Howell's death, seems like his ghost is already after me
To: Geoff Cowper. Vancouver. BC <>
From: Bill Howell. Hussar. Alberta. Canada <>

Thanks, Geoff, for the both your condolences and for reminding me that I only got part way through my Christmas phone calls. As I have a [flexible, wide open] calendar, any time that is good for you, I will make myself available for a call.

I am very happy for my father, as the whole cancer thing dragged out to the the ridiculous extreme. He hadn't enjoyed life for the last 15 years. The last 3.5 years since prostate cancer recurrence had been [painful, depressing], and period of marked decline [physical, mental]ly. But the last two months : I think they would throw you in jail if you put your dog through that. Great lesson for me : don't wait until you can't make your own [decision, action]s. It's not possible that I could like decisions by others.

I did a little bit of work updating his portion of my website, but hopefully over the next six months I will progress with a bunch of new stuff to post but not the major project "Icebreaker Unchained" described below.

Arising over the last week, but especially today, is one of those [strange, magical, multiple]-timing coincidences. In a weird way, it's almost like my father's ghost is pushing me to action. My father and I shelved a joint history research project back in ~2015, because : The project? A [crazy, dark, radical] re-interpretation of the highest level of [planning, preparations] for WWII : "Icebreaker Unchained : We should have lost WWII". (see the short description and links below)

Recent chance events that relate to this : While my father could not have followed is in the last few years, it would have been an awesome feed for our project when he was in much better health!! Perhaps in a few years I will get the time to revisit the "Icebreaker Unchained" project.

Bill Howell
Member of Hussar Lion's Club & Sundowners, (retired from volunteer FireFighters Jan2021)
1-587-707-2027 Bill@BillHowell.ca www.BillHowell.ca
P.O. Box 299, Hussar, Alberta, T0J1S0


***********************
http://www.BillHowell.ca/Bill Howells videos/Howell - videos.html
25May2015 Icebreaker unchained : We should have lost World War II Here is a crazy re-interpretation of the [origins, drive, planning, organisation, execution] of World War II, in the form of background material for a series of videos. The current video series are from the perspective of the Nazi campaigns leading up to Operation Barbarossa (the initial Nazi invasion of Russia), and I have produced a [DRAFT, incomplete, uncorrected] version of Part I of the video series. As the content draws substantially from copyrighted film segments and images, it cannot be distributed. However, the incomplete script (part of which is incomplete outline form) is posted, as are the toolsets I have been using to build the film [programs, spreadsheets, script files, my voice recordings, etc]. I am posting this now, as I can only work on the film for part of two months or so out of a year, and it will take at least several years to finish.

The main theme is that much of WWII progressed as planned and prepared by the Soviets - as manifested by the timing and direction of both the Nazis and Japanese during the initial part of the war, and even by the [timing, direction] of actions by the Americans and British. That's a bit of a stretch for sure, and I am not proposing that the theme is correct. But it just may be more correct in many ways than the overwhelming mainstream historical interpretations, at least on key points and the big picture of the war.

Toolsets can be browsed via: Icebreaker unchained directory. Perhaps these may be of interest, help] to others putting together a film from Linux-based free software.

(first posted 25May2015, incomplete & full of errors, based on work still in development since 23May2009)

Most of the working files pbably aren't even on my website. Unfortunately, didn't capture the first 1h20min video, but I should have eveithout the animations. By now itll be a major job to upgrade my software programs to produce it.


-------- Forwarded Message --------
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 07:48:48 -0800
Subject: Condolences
To: Bill Howell <>
From: Geoff Cowper <>
Dear Bill,

I learned from your cousin Catherine your father passed away before Christmas.

Condolences to you and please pass on to your mother.

Good to have a catch up call sometime soon.

Geoff


20Jan2022 Dan's Ukraine question, and Korotayev prediction of possible state collapse in Saudi Arabia

------- Forwarded Message --------
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 20:19:46 +0000
Subject: "Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: URSS Editorial, 2006." by Andrey Korotayev
To: bill@billhowell.ca
From: PDF By Andrey Korotayev <>

[Howell - I've extracted abst from one of papers only : ]
Peter Turchin 2006 "Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud"

One of the hallmarks of a mature discipline is its ability to make predictions that can be used to test scientific theories. Scientific predictions do not necessarily have to be con- cerned with future events; they can be made about what occurred in the past. I illustrate such retrospective prediction with a case study of conversion to Christianity in the Roman Empire. The bulk of the paper deals with the logic and methodology of setting up a scientific prediction in macrosociology. The specific case study I develop is the possible state collapse in Saudi Arabia. The theoretical setting is provided by the demographic- structural theory of state collapse. The starting point is a previously developed model for political cycles in agrarian societies with nomadic elites, loosely based on the ideas of Ibn Khaldun. I modify the model to fit the characteristics of the modern Saudi Ara- bian state and estimate its parameters using data from published sources. The model predicts that the sovereign debt of Saudi Arabia will eventually reach unmanageable proportions; the fiscal collapse will be followed by a state collapse in short order. The timing of the collapse is affected by exogenous events (primarily, fluctuations in world oil prices) and by parameter uncertainty (certain parameters of the model can be esti- mated only very approximately). The generalized prediction of eventual Saudi collapse together with subsidiary relationships specifying how variations in exogenous factors and parameters affect the future trajectory is the "Ibn Khaldun scenario." A major theo- retical alternative is provided by a set of ideas and specific recommendations suggesting how Saudi Arabia can avoid crisis by reforming its economy and liberalizing its political system (the "IMF scenario"). The main purpose of the proposed test, therefore, is to determine which of the two theoretical scenarios will best describe the trajectory of the Saudi state over the next decades.


Your recent reading history:

-------- Forwarded Message --------
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 09:46:31 -0700
Subject: Russia
To: Bill Howell <>
From: Dan <>

This morning:
https://gellerreport.com/2022/01/the-coming-war-with-russia.html/

After reading some of your thoughts on WWII what are your thoughts on this present situation?


Howell's TradingView chart - USOIL snakes, ladders, Tchaichovsky

23Jan2022 I "Published" this idea on TradingView : USOIL snakes, ladders, Tchaichovsky (I am not sure if non-members can view this?).





This chart struck me as being a poetic dance. Simple, independent trend lines in gently (converging, diverging) trios, with USOIL's whirling rythm adjusting to the bands, reminding me of @fract charts. USOIL and TNX approach and disengage, eyeing each other while moving with the crowd on the floor. For some reason I'm humming Tchaichovsky's Swan Lake, rather than a Strauss waltz. I don't know why.

It's been an enchanting evening, but as storm clouds approach, the orchestra switches to the 1812 overture, mood darkens, and the crowd dissipates. Months later, still no news of USOIL from the front. TNX wonders : For whom the bell tolls?

Obviously, I wouldn't try to generalise this "technical analysis". But it seemed so appropriate as the music was playing, if only in my head.


ahmaddoolwayab - 😂🙇‍♂️ beautiful piece 😂. Looks like an train junction , which direction are you biased?

Howell - @ahmaddoolwayab, The snakes & ladders, like normal technical tools, suggest one possible short-term outlook, that of a waltz between the downtrending trios into the future, with a ghost of a hint on timing and break-of-pattern, if you use your imagination.

I am definitely not smart enough to have a sense of direction for USOIL in the current context. A repeated lesson of my past is that it's easy to mis-react to news, especially for necessities like oil. The Mar2020 lockdown policies provide a recent pattern for a market crash, if that happens. But already covid lockdowns actions are relatively subdued for the levels of (cases, deaths), and a potential storm over vaccine adverse effects could further cool enthusiasm for lockdowns.

The storm that I was thinking of is the historical context of the Ukraine and its potential impact on USOIL. My late father and I worked on a re-interpretation of WWII, and it's hard for me not to see ghosts (a double-pun here, about to become triple). My pure guess is that the Russians can easily get what they want without igniting an actual war, they can get the West to pay for it plus get territory, and they know how to (seed, manage) what we think (before, during, after). But they could also decide to just go for it.

Or there could be a dark horse : like Bismark's prophetic comment that if war occurred, it would probably be due to some "damn fool thing" in the Balkans (WWI was the result). A favourite historical figure for Stalin was Tamerlane (born in Uzbekistan). After a long search for his toomb, Stalin learned of the prophecy therein, that within 3 days great misfortune would befall the desecrator. In 3 days, Barbarossa was launched into Russia (so the story goes). So even the Russians must deal with ghosts, and predicting ghosts is like predicting USOIL.