Go to: Home page of www.BillHowell.ca
Paul L. Vaughan
Paul does a huge amount of work on astronomical and
Earth process datasets, coming up with unique, insightful, and powerful results,
often leaving the experts in the dust, in my opinion.
He both develops and applies advanced wavelet transforms
for the spatio-temporal analysis of complex systems.
28May2016 Paul Vaughan - Ring_of_Fire and Volcano_Explosivity_Index versus El_Nino_La_Nina Here is a breakthrough graph from Paul that relates volcanic activity to El Nino/ La Nina. This makes an interesting century-scale [compliment, contrast] to a "short term" model for major earthquakes by Ben Davidson and colleagues of Suspicious0bservers.org (that's a "zero", not a capital "O"). The public website is Suspicious 0bservers, which has daily space weather comments. You will have to subscribe (~5$/month) to see Davidson's impressive video : Citizen Science - Model of Solar-triggered earthquakes confirmed Related papers : The sun triggers large earthquakes.
Davidson's earthquake model depends on maxima/minima in the Solar Polar Fields/Coronal Hole IMF. This reminds me of several of Paul's climate models, where effects are related to the rate of change of solar and other variables.
(received 27May2016, posted 28May2016)
21Jun2014 Paul Vaughan - Sunspot Integral & Southern Annular Mode (SAM) Fatal, permanent, intractable corruption of solar & climate science obscures a simple & ultimately inescapable truth: The sun governs terrestrial climate. Paul's note compares his results using the Sunspot Integral, to the results of Abram, N.J.; Mulvaney, R.; Vimeux, F.; Phipps, S.J.; Turner, J.; & England, M.H. (2014). "Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium." Nature Climate Change.
(received 21Jun2014, posted 22Jun2014)
24May2014 Paul Vaughan - Misinterpretation of the Atlantic Meridonial Oscillation (AMO) as being similar to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)? Paul's attached note, targeting advanced members of the audience, shows through a sequence of graphical results, that "... EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) 1 to 4 of ERSSTv3b2 (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature) unambiguously underscore solar & lunisolar governance of climate ..." Paul also makes the intriguing comment that "... At interdecadal timescale, accurate IPO forecasting appears feasible. ..."
(received and posted 24May2014)
03Feb2014 Paul Vaughan - Multidecadal Sun-Climate-Change 101: Solar-Terrestrial Spatiotemporal Aggregation Primer on Trivial Extension of Milankovitch Here is a quick one-pager introduction from Paul for his Sun-Climate 101 work.
(received 03Feb2014, first posted 08Feb2014)
20Dec2013 Paul Vaughan - Sun-Climate 101 Solar-Terrestrial Primer, version 2 As food for a great deal of thought, here is a second, significantly-expanded version of Paul's powerful Sun-Climate 101 document-in-development, that includes the contents of the earlier version from 04Aug2013 (pumping, persistence, Solar-Pulsed Decadal Terrestrial Circulation and the Solar-Terrestrial-Climate Weave)
(first posted 18Jan2014, FOUR weeks after receiving this from Paul 21Dec2014 (my apologies to the author!), this description has been simplified 02Feb2014)
04Aug2013 Paul Vaughan - Solar Terrestrial Climate 101
Paul pulls together and updates a series of powerful graphs from his earlier work,
plus he adds some new results, together showing how the Sun relates to climatic trends :
As a practical example, Paul provides :
- "Pumping" in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) - As the NH has lots of land, and land has
low heat capacity, the NH ocean surface is responsive to land-ocean circulatory pumping rate changes
- "Persistence" in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) - As the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by water,
and water has high heat capacity, there is a delayed SH equilibrium (like a pot of water on a heating element)
- Paul estimates that "... 65% of the global sea surface temperature (ERSSTv3b2) variation
is governed by multidecadal solar pulse & persistence. 20%'s interannual. 15%'s linear rise.
Due to the current asymmetric distribution of continents, Earth's solar pulse / persistence response
balance point is the thermal equator (~10°N). This has been determined empirically. ..."
- Over the past several years, Paul has developed many strong relations between astronomical
(including) solar and Earth Climate variables. He repeats graphs from his past work,
plus key work by others (notably a key paper by Le Mouel, J.-L.; Blanter, E.; Shnirman, M.; & Courtillot, V. (2010)),
and adds a new graph (actually, I may have seen it in earlier work of his)
showing a very interesting showing a strong correlation between the structure of the
heliospheric current sheet and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST).
- Also repeated from past work is Paul's very powerful and beautiful
"Solar-Terrestrial-Climate Weave" graph.
- Paul sums it up nicely by saying that "... Multidecadal climate waves perfectly
match multidecadal heliosphere waves. ..."
From my perspective, more and more I find that Paul's work reminds me very much
of concepts from the "Electric Universe" and "Natural Philosophy Alliance" groups.
The "rate of change" (acceleration, deceleration) of the solar cycle is a key clue
that may help make the link, and/or push the focus from gravitation-only frameworks of analysis.
There are other metrics that also give the same impression (I forget the details off-hand).
Perhaps it will help to provide a strong link between those groups and
various areas of Climate Science, as well
as provide another basis of support for some of their work.
- "... In the past I've emphasized that changing solar cycle length impacts on terrestrial climate
are generalizable. My awareness is now reaching a level that empowers contextual
specificity. Here's an example -- multidecadal Atlantic hurricane rates: ..."
blog comments : http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/17/open-thread-weekend-28/#comment-366064
graph : http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/6093/laqs.png
- The above graph was first referenced on Judith Curry's blog, 17Aug2013. It is interesting
to note that the decadal trend is "mild" compared to the ?El Nino? timescale excursions, and
my guess is that Paul will have much more to say at some time in the future. Working
on his spare time without support (he sure could use $ubstantial $upport for his work!!),
and with a special [interest, imperative] in advanced
spatio-temporal wavelet analysis, many, many examples are waiting on the sidelines, as
is a comprehensive [description, "course"] of his mathematical techniques.
(first posted 18Aug2013, two weeks after receiving this from Paul (my apologies to the author))
18Apr13 Paul Vaughan "Jupiter-Earth-Venus (JEV), solar rotation, & sunspot phase"
Here is a fun follow-up to Paul's note below (16Mar13). The 22.2 year
Jupiter-Earth-Venus (JEV) cycle and the sunspot cycle are superposed
Figure 3 (click to see Figure, the flashing graphics indicate residuals)
blog discussion can be followed on "TallBloke's" site.
TallBloke's opening comment on his site-page is :
"... My Thanks to Paul Vaughan, who has sent me a plot he has made of the
variation in the rate of solar rotation determined by Russian scientists
A. G. Tlatov and V. I. Makarov in their 2005 paper ’22-Year Variations
of the Solar Rotation’ and Jupiter-Earth-Venus alignment cycles.
The J-E-V cycle and it’s close synchrony with solar activity indicators
such as sunspot number and solar rotation has been a subject of
investigation on this blog since it started in 2009. Many contributors
have offered new insight to this fascinating subject, and there is
now a substantial body of peer reviewed literature in this area, as well
as many articles on this site from Astrophysicist Ian Wilson,
researchers Roy Martin, Ray Tomes, Jean-Pierre Desmoulins, P.A. Semi,
and myself. If I missed anyone, shout up and I’ll add your name to this
list of J-E-V investigators. ..."
It is almost strange to see a blog so courteous, with contributors obviously
doing their (substantial) homework and keeping their minds open. It's also
VERY interesting to see a community that has some focus on the JEV correlations.
It's a real pleasure to go through this.
(first posted on this site 01May2013)
16Mar13 Paul Vaughan "~60 Year Cycle of ~27 Day Terracentric Solar Rotation"
Paul further ties together the "weave" of several well-known climate-related
"quasi-cycles" in this note. Using as a basis a 27.03 day solar cycle of
Neugebauer, M.; Smith, E.J.; Ruzmaikin, A.; Feynman, J.; Vaughan, A.H.
(2000), Paul "crudely but clearly reveals multidecadal phase cycling"
of ~64 years (with slight adjustments of the results, and which is
of the order of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO - this is
discussed in previous work of Paul)).
Paul then shows that many key quasi-cycles fall out, including
2.37 years [Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)], 1.185 years
[Chandler wobble of the polar axis], 12.8 years
[solar system radial acceleration], and 6.4 years
[terrestrial polar motion envelope].
Several questions arise :
The cumulative effect of several notes by Paul Vaughan over the last
year or two seems to be both deep and broad - one of the best that
I've seen of clarifications of the relationships between key
(< 400 year) climate processes. Paul is really pulling
things together, by identifying and extending key work by others,
combined with his own analysis! The breadth & depth, but more
so the "living in the numbers", reminds me of the late Timo Niroma
of Helsinki, Finland, but with much more advanced analysis.
- What's driving?
- What's resonating?
- What was resonating in the past?
- What confounded pairs share a common driver?
- What coherent pairs are statistical echoes of past physical driving?
24Feb13 Paul Vaughan "Solar-Terrestrial Volatility Weaves"
- Here are some more great, stimulating climate data-analysis from
Paul Vaughan. The focus is on [internanual, decadal, multi-decadal]
hierarchically [structured, nested :: spatial, temporal] data relationships.
As with earlier work, core variables include: solar activity, Earth's "Length Of Day" (LOD),
planetary (in this case Jupiter-Neptune), wind-ocean oscillations
(eg "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO)). As usual, dynamic (rate of change)
variables are important in his work. Key sub-themes include :
- Extremes and volatility clustering
- central limits and cyclic heteroskedasticity
- volatility weave rate shifts
- phase residuals and envelope decomposability
Paul is making steady progress with his dat-based climate analysis,
albeit slower than he would like as he has a real job to
take care of as well. Significant financial support for his work would
always be greatly appreciated. (first posted on this site 27Feb2013)
12Aug12 Paul Vaughan's acronyms -
Paul Vaughan spends his limited time on the analysis of datasets, searching for data
relationships that may lead to a new and deeper understanding of subjects that are
his focus (often the "spatio-temporal dynamics" of astronomy-Earth_systems-climate related).
However, his postings of notes, graphs, and comments are often very short and cryptic, and
for those of use only occasionally lookng into his work, it helps to have a glossary of acronyms.
his spreadsheet lists some of Paul's acronyms, along with very terse descriptions. The list
is far from complete, and I need to add acronyms related to his mathematical techniques
as well (especially Paul's developments of wavelet transform techniques), along with links
for further reading.
(first posted on this site 12Aug2012. Note that I have to download the file,
then launch it. Perhaps this will be a problem for you as well.)
24Mar12 Solar-Terrestrial Resonance, Climate Shifts, & the Chandler Wobble Phase Reversal, Paul L. Vaughan -
Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) uncompromisingly emphasize that solar-terrestrial
relations don't work the way most (whether lay, academic, mainstream, eccentric,
alarmist, skeptic - or whatever) have assumed. In a coupled oscillator spatiotemporal
network synchronization framework, there are an infinite number of coupled terrestrial
annual cycles. When Earth is thrown locally, regionally, or globally for hydrologic
spatiotemporal flips, this isn't well-characterized by temperature anomalies. According to
EOP, the synchronization illustrated in the Tsonis framework indicates global constraints
of solar & lunisolar origin. This will be the subject of a more detailed article educationally
emphasizing some of the nuts & bolts of complex wavelet methodology & interpretation.
(first posted on this site 27Mar2012)
24Mar12 The Solar Cycle's Footprint on Terrestrial Climate, Paul L. Vaughan -
The solar cycle's footprint on terrestrial climate manifests as anomalies in the seasonal
switching of the hemispheric westerly winds, as indicated by semi-annual lunisolar-
integrated variations in the rate of change of length of day. North-south asymmetry (due
to the current distribution of continents) is evident.
(first posted on this site 25Mar2012)
Paul Vaughan's background (he will have to fill in here...)
Directory of available files for this webpage.
27Mar2012 - original; 27Feb2013 etc - as per dating on "NewMaterial"