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Climate Change and the Sun
24Mar12 Solar-Terrestrial Resonance, Climate Shifts, & the Chandler Wobble Phase Reversal, Paul L. Vaughan -
Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) uncompromisingly emphasize that solar-terrestrial
relations don't work the way most (whether lay, academic, mainstream, eccentric,
alarmist, skeptic - or whatever) have assumed. In a coupled oscillator spatiotemporal
network synchronization framework, there are an infinite number of coupled terrestrial
annual cycles. When Earth is thrown locally, regionally, or globally for hydrologic
spatiotemporal flips, this isn't well-characterized by temperature anomalies. According to
EOP, the synchronization illustrated in the Tsonis framework indicates global constraints
of solar & lunisolar origin. This will be the subject of a more detailed article educationally
emphasizing some of the nuts & bolts of complex wavelet methodology & interpretation.
(first posted on this site 27Mar2012)
24Mar12 The Solar Cycle's Footprint on Terrestrial Climate, Paul L. Vaughan -
The solar cycle's footprint on terrestrial climate manifests as anomalies in the seasonal
switching of the hemispheric westerly winds, as indicated by semi-annual lunisolar-
integrated variations in the rate of change of length of day. North-south asymmetry (due
to the current distribution of continents) is evident.
(first posted on this site 25Mar2012)
"We need to dramatically re-allocate climate-related science, program, and
policy funding towards solar physics, astronomy, and geology. This implies a loss
of policy analysts, scientists (including meteorologists) and engineers in
other areas, plus a revamping of the many funding organisations and science
management structures, but change is necessary."
It almost seems that one of the most politically-incorrect group of scientists
today are solar physicists, as they are seen to be a threat to the "Kyoto Premise"
view on Climate Change. Actually,
geologists (more generally Earth Scientists) are more dangerous heretics as they
are the hosts of all real climate change data and analysis on time scales that
help us actually analyse the problem. But apart from industry geologists and
the rare academic scientists, geologists have been rather quiet and well behaved.
However, perhaps starting with ??William Herschel's observation in ~1806 based on Adam
Smith's "The Wealth of Nations"?? that wheat prices in England
seemd to follow sunspot cycles, and certainly following Maunder's work on the
Maunder minimum in the latter part of the 1800's and early 1900's, and his
analysis of tree ring data from ?American scientist?, scientists have often found strong
correlations between solar activity and terrestrial processes. Unfortunately, they
have also often found that these correlations tend to disappear, sometimes as
soon as they publish their papers, sometimes by the next generation of scientists,
and sometimes when better mathematical statstical tools are applied. And, speaking
personally, it's easy to catch the disease of "cyclomania"! Perhaps
for these reasons, there isn't a high degree of confidence in the role of the sun
for climate change or other processes.
When faced with spotty results like this, its a good idea to look elsewhere for
theories that fit the data better, and which bring an understanding to the subject.
Unfortunately, it often seems that alternative theories are selected that don't
fit the data either at all, or when they do fit it they are suggestive of other
theories. The role of anthropogenic GHGs in Climate Change fits this category.
But it seems to me that the huge gap that needs to be filled now is the requirement for
mathematics and statistics that are appropriate for complex dynamical systems
like the sun, which are chaotic or intermittent, discontinuous, and strongly time-lagged
and non-linear. The vast majority of scientists don't have the background
for tackling these systems, and their analysis and conclusions may therefore be useless,
or even worse, highly misleading. Even experts in advanced systems analysis
may have problems. Perhaps the areas of signal analysis and
advanced control theory (perhaps most often applied to electrical engineering)
are of critical importance here, and indeed, some of the best climate analysis and
models seem to have benefitted from that type of background.
In any case, the focus of this web-page is to gather a number of key concepts
that show the sun-climate link, and to broaden the approach by including other
astronomical and geological drivers, and Earth Sciences and evolutionary biology
mediators of climate. Proposals will also be made to change the scientists,
institutions, prioritizations and processes for Climate Change science and policy.
Astronomy and geology as the dominant climate drivers
and clouds, glaciers, ocean currents, and evolutionary biology as climate mediators
Because this web-page is newly split-off from an earlier web-page (as of 04May07) and
I am currently focussing on other priorities,
it will be some time before I can "fill it in". Some key references are given below,
and my primary current material is actually in the "background, concept framework"
document for the rise and fall of civilisations:
Another more specialized web-page will be set up to address the role of galactic rays.
The following text is extracted from the above document as an indication of how I see
things at this point in time:
Glaciation models for the last 6 million years
Here are results so far for my modeling of glaciation over the last 6 million
years (6 MyBP). In addition to a preliminary report with background information
on past and current models of glaciation, computer software (from the group of
Jaques laskar etal) and extensive Milankovic insolation data is posted on my
website for calculating insolations using software from Laskar etal, and for
calculating ice volumes (roughly related to earth temperatures).
Note that the software is generally written in the Q'Nial programming language,
www.nialsystem.com, which is a great prototyping language, although most would
use MatLab or Mathematica.
Holocene climate - Milankovic models plus sun-barycenter movements
First posted 24Oct07
There have for a LOOOONNG time been papers linking solar activity to the motion
of planets in the solar system - in fact the FIRST models of solar activity
(eg sunspot cycles) were of that nature (Charbonneau 2002). Strong "modern"
advocates include the late Rhodes Fairbridge, Ivanka Charvatova, and
My own limited modelling has focussed on the sun / solar system barycenter
distances and their effect on insolation. However, this is a "side-issue" for me
for a casual project on the sun and civilisations, as opposed to being my major
My results probably reflect those of many other teams
that likely work in this area, but I haven't had a chance to dig all of that out yet.
The results are quite exciting, as they suggest on the basis of insolation
calculations what a few scientists have suspected for over 100 years: many of the
sub-millenial climate and solar "quasi-cycles" could be explained by the
sun-barycenter movements. This also implies that sub-millenial insolation
changes are as large as the long-term Milankovic forcings. Butas the paper
explains, I've only used a "half-a-deck-of cards" when all of the known/
suspected major climate drivers are considered (this list does NOT include CO2
concentrations above 40-60 ppm!).
As with the 6 My glaciation model above, computer software and extensive
Milankovic insolation data is posted on my website for calculating insolations
by combining sun-barycenter results from NASA-JPL's Horizon interface for their
Ephemeris software, plus modifications to the software from Laskar etal mentioned
above. Note that there are conceptual and software errors in my work, but
the preliminary results show promise and point in a very useful direction.
Note that "most" of the softare source code, and "much" of the intermediate data
is provided in the directories listed above. However, there are MANY huge
data/results files missing, as that would take some time and a lot of disk space
to set up. However, the source code will provide an exact view of the models,
and the data/results provided provide great checks on consistency.
Appendix 2 - Climate Change: A current and controversial view
In a nutshell, the major climate drivers appear to be astronomy, geology, and
evolutionary biology, and this is discussed in more depth in my web-document as
linked under "Astronomy and geology" above, as well as many other sources such
as the references in Appendix 1 (notably Khandekar, Weart, Shaviv & Veizer, etc).
These major drivers are discussed according to various timescales below.
Phanerozoic Era (~570 My to present) - The really BIG swings in temperature occur in quasi-cycles
of somewhere on the order of 70 to 140 million years (My). The best (?only?) theory for this is that the
interaction of galactic rays and the helio- & geo- magnetic fields drives cloud cover variability, which
has a huge influence on Earth temperatures (Shaviv and Veizer ???). Galactic ray exposure vary
because the solar system bobs above and below the plane of the Milky Way galaxy (that's ours) with a
period of roughly ?70? My, and because the solar system passes through the spirals of the galaxy
roughly every 140 My. These changes in the relative position of our solar system within the galaxy
change our relative exposure to galactic rays. However, galactic rays can also because of galactic
events (short term for sure, perhaps long terms as well.
Intermediate timescale (5 to 20 My to present) - nothing to put here right now.
Last 1 My - The dominant theory for recent glaciations is the role of Milankovic cycles - that is, the
variation of solar insolation (the amount of solar power that reaches different latitudes) according to the
eccentricity of the Earth's orbit, and the title and recession of the Earth's axis (other components are not
yet covered in the data that we are using, although it should be noted that the moon's influence is, I
believe, included). Refer to Wikipedia for an excellent description of the limitations and problems with
the theory Milankovic theory of climate forcing.
Holocene period (last 11 to 15 ky) - Right now it appears that Milankovic trends are the #1 influence
and these occur gradually, but the effects occur through cloud, glacier and
ocean circulation time-lags which can "flip" rapidly. Solar variability provides
significant shocks and mid-term trends that are
significant to civilisations. The relative impact of soalr variabiliy is certainly underestimated, as
leveraging factors such as galactic rays and clouds.
Modern Warm Period (1850 to present) - It seems clear that solar variability/ galactic rays explain
the situation, probably with some help from the glacier/ ocean circulation "climate reseervoirs".
Last 20 years - The recent climate trends apparently seem anomalous, but then again so is the
behaviour of the sun. I don't have data and analysis, but I'll still bet that Kyoto Premise (see below)
turns out to be a turkey. In a nutshell: Sun -> Cloud & Ice cover
Kyoto Premise - The current science fashion/ cum science cult/ cum science religion regarding
anthropogenic GreenHouse Gas (GHG - especially CO2) emissions doesn't even seem to register at any
time scale other than perhaps as one of many possible minor but likely insignificant contributors to
climate change in the last 20 to 50 years. Separate, web-posted papers provide an analysis of the
failures of the current consensus (including the UN-IPCC reports), and an analysis of why scientific
consensus and be so wrong for so long a time (this same story has been a lament all the way through
history, and education and career long learning hasn't changed this).
References: selected articles, mostly related to solar and climate
- Edouard Bard, Martin Frank "Climate change and solar variability:
What is new under the sun?" Earth & Planetary Science Letters 248
- Paul Charbonneau 2002 "The rise and fall of the first sunspot model"
JHA xxxiii Science History Publications Ltd. - Provided by the NASA
Astrophysics data system
- Ivanka Charvatova, Jaroslav Strestik 2004 "Periodicities between 6 and
16 years in surface air temperature in possible relation to solar inertial
motion" Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (2004) pp219-227
- C1ay "Solar Cycle 25 could be one of the weakest in centuries" 11May2006
- L. J. Gray, J. D. Haigh, R. G. Harrison "Influence of solar changes on the
Earth's climate" Hadley Centre, UK, Technical note 62, January
- Douglas V. Hoyt, Kenneth H. Schatten "The role of the sun in climate change"
Oxford University Press, Oxford UK, 1997, 279pp – superb background book
- Journalist? or website? NASA wbsite "Scientists Issue Unprecedented
Forecastof Next Sunspot Cycle" - David Hathaway cited
- Cynthia Kuo, Craig Lindberg, David J. Thomson "Coherence established
between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature" Nature,
vol343, 22Feb1990, p709-714
- Richard Mackey 2007 "Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system
regulates the Earth’s climate" Journal of Coastal Research SI 50 955 - 968
ICS2007 (Proceedings) Australia ISSN 0749.0208
- Nir Shaviv, Jan Veizer “Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?” GSA
Today, July 2003, pp4-10
- Willie W-H Soon, S.H. Yaskell "The Maunder Minimum and the variable sun-earth
connection" World Scientific Publ, Signapore, 2003 278pp
- W. W-H. Soon "Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for
multi-decadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature
record of the past 130 years" Geophysical Research Letters,
vol 32, L16712, doi:10.1029/2005GL023429, 2005
- Ken Tapping "Modeling solar irradiance: values and uncertainties"
- presentation to the Engineering Institute of Canada's Climate Change Technology
Conference, Ottawa, 12May06 http://www.ccc2006.ca/eng/index.html
(not published yet as of May06)
- Julio Valdes, Graham Bonham-Carter "Time dependent neural network models for
detecting changes of state in Earth and planetary processes"
Proceedings of IJCNN 2005, International Joint Conference on Neural
Networks. Montreal, paper #1439, pp????-????, 31 July – 4
- Jan Veizer "Celestial climate driver: A perspective from four billion
years of the carbon cycle" Geoscience Canada, vol32 n1, pp13-28, March 2005
Directory of available files for this webpage.
24Oct07 - Holocene climate paper comments/ link, improved references
04May07 - Updates: split out and expanded from previous webpage 04May07
06Oct06 - original