/media/bill/SWAPPER/Website - raw/Book [note, review]s/Dobler ~2016 The Sun and history.txt


Ibn Khaldun 3-4 generations



Tijevsky 10y waves
Kondriatieff 50??y waves


Strauss–Howe generational theory
Harry S Dent Dec2020 forecast : 
	"...   Their research closely parallels, politically and socially, my economic and financial generational research.   ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
The Strauss–Howe generational theory, also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and global history. It was devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 20-25 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years, although some saecula have lasted longer). The theory states that after every saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis. 


Stephen Puetz - The greatest of cycles



Sacha Dobler 

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